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Japan's Terra Drone expands investment in Ukraine drone sector

The Japan Times

Japan's Terra Drone expands investment in Ukraine drone sector A soldier from Ukraine's Taifun unmanned aerial vehicle unit holds a new model Marsianin attack drone on April 7 in Kharkiv region, Ukraine. Tokyo-based Terra Drone is expanding its investment in Ukrainian interceptor drones as it looks to bring battlefield-tested technology back to Japan to tap into a multibillion-dollar defense budget for unmanned systems. On Tuesday, Terra Drone CEO Toru Tokushige said the company was entering a new strategic partnership with Ukraine's WinnyLab to develop fixed-wing interceptor drones. It comes after the company announced in March that it would make an investment in Ukraine's Amazing Drones to develop vertical take-off interceptor drones. "Starting with interceptor drones we are looking for products that are good for increasing the defensive power of Ukraine and also the defensive power of Japan," Tokushige said in an interview.


Kim Jong Un praises troops who 'self-blasted' to avoid capture by Ukraine

BBC News

Kim Jong Un praises troops who'self-blasted' to avoid capture by Ukraine Kim Jong Un has praised North Korean soldiers who killed themselves by detonating their grenades while fighting for Russia against Ukraine, confirming a long-suspected battlefield policy. In a speech this week, the North Korean leader said those who unhesitatingly opted for self-blasting, suicide attack, in order to defend the great honour were heroes. South Korea estimates at least 15,000 North Koreans have been sent to help Russia recapture parts of western Kursk, and more than 6,000 have been killed so far. Neither Pyongyang nor Moscow have confirmed the numbers. Intelligence agencies and defectors have said the soldiers were under Pyongyang's orders to kill themselves rather than be taken prisoner by Ukraine.


Conflict Forecasting via Conformal Prediction for Markov Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Whether or not a country is at war, or experiencing escalating or deescalating levels of conflict, has massive ramifications on a country's national and foreign policy. Given a country's history of conflict, or lack thereof, future predictions about the war-status of a country are valuable information. In this paper, we present the use of conformal prediction on temporally-dependent data to obtain prediction sets of possible future conflict state-sequences. More specifically, we compare the results of conformal prediction to a likelihood-based prediction strategy when the data are assumed to come from a discrete-state Markov process. A point-prediction may not supply sufficient information because the penalty for a wrong prediction is extreme, and so we consider a machine learning alternative that gives valid uncertainty quantification and is robust to model misspecification. In the data analysis, we present real forecasts of conflict dynamics across multiple countries. Lastly, we comment on the possible limitations of existing approaches for applying conformal prediction to Markovian data, where the exchangeability assumption is violated.


Online learning with Erdős-Rényi side-observation graphs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider adversarial multi-armed bandit problems where the learner is allowed to observe losses of a number of arms beside the arm that it actually chose. We study the case where all non-chosen arms reveal their loss with a fixed but unknown probability $r$, independently of each other and the action of the learner. We propose two algorithms that work for different ranges of $r$. We show that after $T$ rounds in a bandit problem with $N$ arms, the expected regret of our first algorithm is $O(\sqrt{(T /r) \log N })$ whenever $r\ge(\log T)/(2N)$, while our second algorithm achieves a regret of $O(\sqrt{(T/r) \log (N+T)})$ for smaller values of $r$. We also give a quick estimation procedure that decides the range of~$r$. All our bounds are within logarithmic factors of the best achievable performance of any algorithm that is even allowed to know~$r$.


Spectral bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Smooth functions on graphs have wide applications in manifold and semi-supervised learning. In this work, we study a bandit problem where the payoffs of arms are smooth on a graph. This framework is suitable for solving online learning problems that involve graphs, such as content-based recommendation. In this problem, each item we can recommend is a node of an undirected graph and its expected rating is similar to the one of its neighbors. The goal is to recommend items that have high expected ratings. We aim for the algorithms where the cumulative regret with respect to the optimal policy would not scale poorly with the number of nodes. In particular, we introduce the notion of an effective dimension, which is small in real-world graphs, and propose three algorithms for solving our problem that scale linearly and sublinearly in this dimension. Our experiments on content recommendation problem show that a good estimator of user preferences for thousands of items can be learned from just tens of node evaluations.


Teacher Forcing as Generalized Bayes: Optimization Geometry Mismatch in Switching Surrogates for Chaotic Dynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Identity teacher forcing (ITF) enables stable training of deterministic recurrent surrogates for chaotic dynamical systems and has been highly effective for dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) with recurrent neural networks (RNNs), including interpretable almost-linear RNNs (AL-RNNs). However, as an intervention-based prediction loss (and thus a generalized Bayes update), teacher forcing need not match the free-running model's marginal likelihood geometry. We compare the objective-induced curvatures of ITF and marginal likelihood in a probabilistic switching augmentation of AL-RNNs, estimating ambiguity-aware observed information via Louis' identity. In the switching setting studied here, conditioning on a single forced regime path (as ITF does) inflates curvature, while marginal likelihood curvature is reduced by a missing-information correction when multiple switching explanations remain plausible. In Lorenz-63 experiments, windowed evidence fine-tuning improves held-out evidence but can degrade dynamical quantities of interest (QoIs) relative to ITF-pretrained models.


in Fixed Dimension Training Neural Networks is NP-Hard

Neural Information Processing Systems

Our results settle the complexity status regarding these parameters number of dimensions and number of ReLUs if the network is assumed to compute the ReLU case, we show fixed-parameter tractability for the combined parameter four ReLUs (or two linear threshold neurons) with zero training error. Finally, in We also answer a question by Froese et al. [2022, JAIR] proving W[1]-hardness for dimensions, which excludes any polynomial-time algorithm for constant dimension. Khalife and Basu [2022, IPCO] showing that both problems are NP-hard for two eral questions are still open. We answer questions by Arora et al. [2018, ICLR] and complexity of these problems has been studied numerous times in recent years, sevsidering ReLU and linear threshold activation functions.


L2T-DLN: Learning to Teach with Dynamic Loss Network

Neural Information Processing Systems

With the concept of teaching being introduced to the machine learning community, a teacher model start using dynamic loss functions to teach the training of a student model. The dynamic intends to set adaptive loss functions to different phases of student model learning. In existing works, the teacher model 1) merely determines the loss function based on the present states of the student model, i.e., disregards the experience of the teacher; 2) only utilizes the states of the student model, e.g., training iteration number and loss/accuracy from training/validation sets, while ignoring the states of the loss function. In this paper, we first formulate the loss adjustment as a temporal task by designing a teacher model with memory units, and, therefore, enables the student learning to be guided by the experience of the teacher model. Then, with a dynamic loss network, we can additionally use the states of the loss to assist the teacher learning in enhancing the interactions between the teacher and the student model. Extensive experiments demonstrate our approach can enhance student learning and improve the performance of various deep models on real-world tasks, including classification, objective detection, and semantic segmentation scenarios.


Congress cheers King Charles for underlining 'checks and balances'

Al Jazeera

US lawmakers gave King Charles III a standing ovation upon mentioning the importance of "checks and balances" on executive power during his historic speech to Congress. Ukrainian drones strike Russia's Tuapse refinery for third time


The UK's Answer to Darpa Wants to Rewire the Human Brain

WIRED

ARIA has a billion-dollar budget and big aspirations for tackling everything from epilepsy to Alzheimer's. The UK's Advanced Research and Innovation Agency (ARIA) was established in 2023 with the goal of pursuing "high-risk, high-reward" moonshots in sectors ranging from bolstering food security to new ways of ramping up human immunity . With more than £1 billion (about $1.3 billion) worth of government funding earmarked between now and 2030, one of ARIA's most ambitious programs is a £69 million initiative that aims to develop more tailored ways of modulating the human brain. The hope is to eventually address an entire range of disorders, from epilepsy to Alzheimer's. Reports have previously estimated that this suite of neurological conditions costs the UK economy tens of billions of dollars each year.