In this paper, we derive rates of convergence in the high-dimensional central limit theorem for Polyak--Ruppert averaged iterates generated by entropy-regularized asynchronous Q-learning with linear function approximation and a polynomial stepsize $k^{-ω}$, $ω\in (1/2,1)$. Assuming that the sequence of observed triples $(s_k,a_k,s_{k+1})_{k \geq 0}$ forms a uniformly geometrically ergodic Markov chain, and under suitable regularity conditions for the projected soft Bellman equation, we establish a Gaussian approximation bound in the convex distance with rate of order $n^{-1/4}$, up to polylogarithmic factors in $n$, where $n$ is the number of samples used by the algorithm. To obtain this result, we combine a linearization of the soft Bellman recursion with a Gaussian approximation for the leading martingale term. Finally, we derive high-order moment bounds for the algorithm's last iterate, which might be of independent interest.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for safety-critical domains like healthcare, yet it is rarely evaluated under realistic out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions. Here, we assessed predictive performance and uncertainty reliability for deep learning-based blood pressure (BP) estimation from photoplethysmography (PPG) signals under both in-distribution (ID) and OOD settings. Using an XResNet1D-50 trained on PulseDB and tested on four external datasets, we compared deep ensembles (DE) and Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) with Gaussian negative log-likelihood (GNLL) and mean squared error (MSE) losses, optionally followed by post-hoc recalibration via conformal prediction (CP), temperature scaling (TS), and isotonic regression (IR). The key findings of our study are as follows: (1) DE provides stronger predictive robustness under domain shift than MCD, an advantage that becomes clear primarily under external shift. (2) Recalibrated GNLL-based methods yield the best uncertainty calibration (e.g., GNLL+DE+CP for systolic blood pressure (SBP), GNLL+DE+TS for diastolic blood pressure (DBP)), while MSE-based uncertainty requires recalibration to become practically useful. (3) Across settings, CP and TS offer the most consistent gains, with IR remaining competitive in several cases. Overall, our results identify DE-based methods as most robust for predictive performance under domain shift, GNLL as strongest for native UQ, and recalibration as essential for making MSE-based uncertainty practical. These findings highlight the need to jointly assess predictive accuracy and calibration on external data for trustworthy cuffless BP estimation

This paper studies sampling error bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) in the 2-Wasserstein distance. Our contributions are threefold. (i) Under general Lipschitz-type conditions on the score function and for a broad class of variance schedules, including the cosine schedule, we establish sharp upper bounds that are optimal in both the dimension and the number of steps, and recover several sharp error bounds previously obtained in the literature. (ii) We prove that the same Lipschitz-type conditions, which encompass those commonly imposed on the (learned) score, imply a logarithmic Sobolev inequality and hence a quadratic transportation cost inequality for the DDPM. As a consequence, in settings covered by existing work, an optimal Wasserstein bound, up to a logarithmic factor, follows from the recently obtained sharp error bound in the Kullback-Leibler divergence under geometric-type variance schedules. (iii) We show that for general log-concave target distributions, the optimal Wasserstein error bound remains attainable even without a quadratic transportation cost inequality for the target. Our analysis is based on viewing the DDPM sampler as a discretization of the Föllmer process rather than the conventional reverse Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Learning dynamical systems through operator-theoretic representations provides a powerful framework for analyzing complex dynamics, as spectral quantities such as eigenvalues and invariant structures encode characteristic time scales and long-term behavior. However, dynamical operators are typically estimated independently for each system, preventing the discovery of shared structure across related dynamics. To address this limitation, we posit that related dynamical systems lie near a low-dimensional manifold in spectral operator space. Based on this hypothesis, we introduce DOODL (Dynamical OperatOr Dictionary Learning), a framework that learns a dictionary of characteristic spectral dynamics whose combinations approximate this manifold and yield compact, interpretable embeddings of individual systems. Beyond representation learning, DOODL enables fast and interpretable operator estimation from short and partially observed trajectories by constraining the estimation to the learned operator manifold. Experiments on metastable Langevin dynamics and turbulent plasma simulations demonstrate that DOODL scales to highly complex multiscale regimes while capturing characteristic spectral structure governing the dynamics rather than merely fitting trajectories, achieving errors one to two orders of magnitude lower than independent operator estimation methods in challenging low-data regimes.

The Volterra signature extends the classical path signature by incorporating general matrix-valued kernel into its iterated integral structure, yielding a flexible notion of memory for time series. Its components can be viewed as successive Picard iterates of linear controlled Volterra equations, making their exact computation of additional mathematical interest. However, the kernel introduces substantial algorithmic challenges. We provide a resolution by first decomposing the Chen-type convolution relation established in [13] into analytic and arithmetic parts, and then introducing several efficient algorithms: a general approximative scheme with quadratic complexity O(J2) in the number of time steps J, an FFT-based acceleration with complexity O(J logJ) for convolution kernels on uniform grids, and an exact recursion with complexity O(JR2) for kernels admitting a state-space representation of dimension R; retaining standard signature complexity in the path dimension and truncation level N. We further show that the number of factors in matrix-valued kernels of the form K(t,s) = P p kp(t s)Ap do not increase the asymptotic complexity in J and N. Finally, we derive a finite-difference predictor-corrector scheme for the associated Volterra signature kernel. All algorithms are implemented in the publicly available JAX-based package tensordev.

Adaptive experimentation enables efficient estimation of causal effects, but existing methods are not designed for survival data with censoring, where event times are only partially observed (e.g., overall survival in cancer trials but with dropout). In this paper, we develop a novel framework for adaptive experimentation to estimate causal effects under right censoring. For this, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for the average survival effect curve as a function of the treatment allocation policy and thereby obtain a closed-form efficiency-optimal allocation policy. The policy generalizes classical Neyman allocation to survival settings by prioritizing patient strata where both event and censoring dynamics induce high uncertainty. Building on this, we propose the Adaptive Survival Estimator (ASE), an adaptive framework that learns the allocation policy and estimates the average survival effect curve sequentially. Our framework has three main benefits: (i) it accommodates arbitrary machine learning models for nuisance estimation; (ii) it is guided by a closed-form efficiency-optimal allocation policy; and (iii) it admits strong theoretical guarantees, including asymptotic normality via a martingale central limit theorem. We demonstrate our framework across various numerical experiments to show consistent efficiency gains over uniform randomization and censoring-agnostic baselines.

Federated Bayesian neural networks require fixing a prior on the model parameters together with a likelihood. Eliciting meaningful priors on the weight space of modern overparameterized models is notoriously difficult, and misspecification of either component can severely degrade accuracy and calibration. Motivated by the rapid progress of predictive models such as large language models, the martingale posterior, also known as predictive Bayes, replaces the prior--likelihood pair with a predictive distribution and recovers parameter uncertainty by repeatedly drawing predictive samples and refitting the model. A direct federated implementation, however, would require clients to share the local data sets. This letter proposes {federated martingale posterior} (FMP) sampling, a one-shot embarrassingly parallel protocol in which each client uploads a small set of trainable data embeddings and the server runs the predictive sampler centrally. Experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100 show that FMP closely matches the centralized counterpart and significantly improves calibration over consensus-style baselines.

Pope Leo XIV holds the weekly general audience in St. Peter's Square at the Vatican on May 13. | REUTERS VATICAN CITY - Pope Leo will address the rise of artificial intelligence in his first in-depth text outlining his concerns, the Vatican said on Monday, adding that it would be unveiled on May 25 by the pontiff himself. The document, known as an encyclical, is likely to decry the use of AI in warfare and address how the technology is challenging workers' rights, according to sources. It will be titled "Magnifica Humanitas" (Magnificent Humanity) and was formally signed by the pope on Friday ahead of publication, a Vatican statement said. In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever. By subscribing, you can help us get the story right.

Researchers at the University of Cambridge are using satellite data and AI in an effort to slow the decline in Britain's hedgehog population. Using an AI tool called Tessera, which analyses detailed images of the UK gathered from space, experts can precisely determine locations of hedgehog habitats - and where these are disappearing. The resulting maps capture landscapes in minute detail, including down to individual hedgerows, while AI can accurately predict hedgehog-friendly places obscured by cloud cover. Those behind the project hope it will help to shed light not just on where hedgehogs live across the UK, but barriers preventing them from finding food and mates. The researchers say Tessera's outputs can be used to track the impact of new housing developments and other environmental changes on landscapes that could affect hedgehogs over time.

People attend a jobs fair in London. Only 24% of the members of public surveyed thought AI was a positive thing for humanity. People attend a jobs fair in London. Only 24% of the members of public surveyed thought AI was a positive thing for humanity. One in three university students think AI will wipe out jobs so rapidly it will trigger civil unrest, according to a survey by King's College London (KCL).