We present a system, CREWS_NS, that is used in the long-term scheduling of drivers and guards for the Dutch Railways. CREWS_NS schedules the work of about 5000 people. CREWS_NS is built on top of CREWS, a scheduling tool for speeding the development of scheduling applications. CREWS heavily relies on the use of AI techniques and has been built as a white-box system, in the sense that the planner can perceive what is going on, can interact with the system by proposing alternatives or querying decisions, and can adapt the behavior of the system to changing circumstances. Scheduling can be done in automatic, semiautomatic, or manual mode. CREWS has mechanisms for dealing with the constant changes that occur in input data, can identify the consequences of the change, and guides the planner in accommodating the changes in the already built schedules (rescheduling).

An important characteristic of many logics for Artificial Intelligence is their nonmonotonicity. This means that adding a formula to the premises can invalidate some of the consequences. There may, however, exist formulae that can always be safely added to the premises without destroying any of the consequences: we say they respect monotonicity. Also, there may be formulae that, when they are a consequence, can not be invalidated when adding any formula to the premises: we call them conservative. We study these two classes of formulae for preferential logics, and show that they are closely linked to the formulae whose truth-value is preserved along the (preferential) ordering. We will consider some preferential logics for illustration, and prove syntactic characterization results for them. The results in this paper may improve the efficiency of theorem provers for preferential logics.

The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm has been extensively studied and has been applied with considerable success to a wide variety of problems. However, the algorithm is derived from heuristic ideasand this leads to a number of significant limitations. In this paper, we consider the problem of modelling the probability densityof data in a space of several dimensions in terms of a smaller number of latent, or hidden, variables. We introduce a novel form of latent variable model, which we call the GTM algorithm (forGenerative Topographic Mapping), which allows general nonlinear transformations from latent space to data space, and which is trained using the EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm. Ourapproach overcomes the limitations of the SOM, while introducing no significant disadvantages. We demonstrate the performance ofthe GTM algorithm on simulated data from flow diagnostics for a multiphase oil pipeline.

The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm has been extensively studied and has been applied with considerable success to a wide variety of problems. However, the algorithm is derived from heuristic ideas and this leads to a number of significant limitations. In this paper, we consider the problem of modelling the probability density of data in a space of several dimensions in terms of a smaller number of latent, or hidden, variables. We introduce a novel form of latent variable model, which we call the GTM algorithm (for Generative Topographic Mapping), which allows general nonlinear transformations from latent space to data space, and which is trained using the EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm. Our approach overcomes the limitations of the SOM, while introducing no significant disadvantages. We demonstrate the performance of the GTM algorithm on simulated data from flow diagnostics for a multiphase oil pipeline.

The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm has been extensively studied and has been applied with considerable success to a wide variety of problems. However, the algorithm is derived from heuristic ideas and this leads to a number of significant limitations. In this paper, we consider the problem of modelling the probability density of data in a space of several dimensions in terms of a smaller number of latent, or hidden, variables. We introduce a novel form of latent variable model, which we call the GTM algorithm (for Generative Topographic Mapping), which allows general nonlinear transformations from latent space to data space, and which is trained using the EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm. Our approach overcomes the limitations of the SOM, while introducing no significant disadvantages. We demonstrate the performance of the GTM algorithm on simulated data from flow diagnostics for a multiphase oil pipeline.

Department of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Abstract Dynamic Programming, Q-Iearning and other discrete Markov Decision Process solvers can be -applied to continuous d-dimensional state-spaces by quantizing the state space into an array of boxes. This is often problematic above two dimensions: a coarse quantization can lead to poor policies, and fine quantization is too expensive. Possible solutions are variable-resolution discretization, or function approximation by neural nets. A third option, which has been little studied in the reinforcement learning literature, is interpolation on a coarse grid. In this paper we study interpolation techniques that can result in vast improvements in the online behavior of the resulting control systems: multilinear interpolation, and an interpolation algorithm based on an interesting regular triangulation of d-dimensional space.

We compare different methods to combine predictions from neural networkstrained on different bootstrap samples of a regression problem. One of these methods, introduced in [6] and which we here call balancing, is based on the analysis of the ensemble generalization errorinto an ambiguity term and a term incorporating generalization performances of individual networks. We show how to estimate these individual errors from the residuals on validation patterns.Weighting factors for the different networks follow from a quadratic programming problem. On a real-world problem concerning the prediction of sales figures and on the well-known Boston housing data set, balancing clearly outperforms other recently proposedalternatives as bagging [1] and bumping [8]. 1 EARLY STOPPING AND BOOTSTRAPPING Stopped training is a popular strategy to prevent overfitting in neural networks. The complete data set is split up into a training and a validation set.

Closed-loop control relies on sensory feedback that is usually assumed to be free. But if sensing incurs a cost, it may be costeffective to take sequences of actions in open-loop mode. We describe a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns to combine open-loop and closed-loop control when sensing incurs a cost. Although we assume reliable sensors, use of open-loop control means that actions must sometimes be taken when the current state of the controlled system is uncertain. This is a special case of the hidden-state problem in reinforcement learning, and to cope, our algorithm relies on short-term memory. The main result of the paper is a rule that significantly limits exploration of possible memory states by pruning memory states for which the estimated value of information is greater than its cost. We prove that this rule allows convergence to an optimal policy.

We propose a new method to compute prediction intervals. Especially for small data sets the width of a prediction interval does not only depend on the variance of the target distribution, but also on the accuracy of our estimator of the mean of the target, i.e., on the width of the confidence interval. The confidence interval follows from the variation in an ensemble of neural networks, each of them trained and stopped on bootstrap replicates of the original data set. A second improvement is the use of the residuals on validation patterns instead of on training patterns for estimation of the variance of the target distribution. As illustrated on a synthetic example, our method is better than existing methods with regard to extrapolation and interpolation in data regimes with a limited amount of data, and yields prediction intervals which actual confidence levels are closer to the desired confidence levels. 1 STATISTICAL INTERVALS In this paper we will consider feedforward neural networks for regression tasks: estimating an underlying mathematical function between input and output variables based on a finite number of data points possibly corrupted by noise.

BC Cancer Agency 601 West 10th Ave, Epidemiology 601 West 10th Ave, Epidemiology Vancouver BC Canada V5Z 1L3 Vancouver BC Canada V5Z 1L3 tap@comp.vuw.ac.nz Abstract Epidemiological data is traditionally analyzed with very simple techniques. Flexible models, such as neural networks, have the potential to discover unanticipated features in the data. However, to be useful, flexible models must have effective control on overfitting. This paper reports on a comparative study of the predictive quality of neural networks and other flexible models applied to real and artificial epidemiological data. The results suggest that there are no major unanticipated complex features in the real data, and also demonstrate that MacKay's [1995] Bayesian neural network methodology provides effective control on overfitting while retaining the ability to discover complex features in the artificial data. 1 Introduction Traditionally, very simple statistical techniques are used in the analysis of epidemiological studies.