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Analysis of Drifting Dynamics with Neural Network Hidden Markov Models
Kohlmorgen, Jens, Müller, Klaus-Robert, Pawelzik, Klaus
We present a method for the analysis of nonstationary time series with multiple operating modes. In particular, it is possible to detect and to model both a switching of the dynamics and a less abrupt, time consuming drift from one mode to another. This is achieved in two steps. First, an unsupervised training method provides prediction experts for the inherent dynamical modes. Then, the trained experts are used in a hidden Markov model that allows to model drifts. An application to physiological wake/sleep data demonstrates that analysis and modeling of real-world time series can be improved when the drift paradigm is taken into account.
Bidirectional Retrieval from Associative Memory
Sommer, Friedrich T., Palm, Günther
Similarity based fault tolerant retrieval in neural associative memories (N AM) has not lead to wiedespread applications. A drawback of the efficient Willshaw model for sparse patterns [Ste61, WBLH69], is that the high asymptotic information capacity is of little practical use because of high cross talk noise arising in the retrieval for finite sizes. Here a new bidirectional iterative retrieval method for the Willshaw model is presented, called crosswise bidirectional (CB) retrieval, providing enhanced performance. We discuss its asymptotic capacity limit, analyze the first step, and compare it in experiments with the Willshaw model. Applying the very efficient CB memory model either in information retrieval systems or as a functional model for reciprocal cortico-cortical pathways requires more than robustness against random noise in the input: Our experiments show also the segmentation ability of CB-retrieval with addresses containing the superposition of pattens, provided even at high memory load.
Monotonic Networks
Monotonicity is a constraint which arises in many application domains. We present a machine learning model, the monotonic network, for which monotonicity can be enforced exactly, i.e., by virtue offunctional form. A straightforward method for implementing and training a monotonic network is described. Monotonic networks are proven to be universal approximators of continuous, differentiable monotonic functions. We apply monotonic networks to a real-world task in corporate bond rating prediction and compare them to other approaches. 1 Introduction Several recent papers in machine learning have emphasized the importance of priors and domain-specific knowledge. In their well-known presentation of the biasvariance tradeoff (Geman and Bienenstock, 1992)' Geman and Bienenstock conclude by arguing that the crucial issue in learning is the determination of the "right biases" which constrain the model in the appropriate way given the task at hand.
RCC Cannot Compute Certain FSA, Even with Arbitrary Transfer Functions
The proof given here shows that for any finite, discrete transfer function used by the units of an RCC network, there are finite-state automata (FSA) that the network cannot model, no matter how many units are used. The proof also applies to continuous transfer functions with a finite number of fixed-points, such as sigmoid and radial-basis functions.
An Incremental Nearest Neighbor Algorithm with Queries
We consider the general problem of learning multi-category classification from labeled examples. We present experimental results for a nearest neighbor algorithm which actively selects samples from different pattern classes according to a querying rule instead of the a priori class probabilities. The amount of improvement of this query-based approach over the passive batch approach depends on the complexity of the Bayes rule. The principle on which this algorithm is based is general enough to be used in any learning algorithm which permits a model-selection criterion and for which the error rate of the classifier is calculable in terms of the complexity of the model. 1 INTRODUCTION We consider the general problem of learning multi-category classification from labeled examples. In many practical learning settings the time or sample size available for training are limited. This may have adverse effects on the accuracy of the resulting classifier. For instance, in learning to recognize handwritten characters typical time limitation confines the training sample size to be of the order of a few hundred examples. It is important to make learning more efficient by obtaining only training data which contains significant information about the separability of the pattern classes thereby letting the learning algorithm participate actively in the sampling process. Querying for the class labels of specificly selected examples in the input space may lead to significant improvements in the generalization error (cf.