Europe
How to Dynamically Merge Markov Decision Processes
Singh, Satinder P., Cohn, David
We are frequently called upon to perform multiple tasks that compete for our attention and resource. Often we know the optimal solution to each task in isolation; in this paper, we describe how this knowledge can be exploited to efficiently find good solutions for doing the tasks in parallel. We formulate this problem as that of dynamically merging multiple Markov decision processes (MDPs) into a composite MDP, and present a new theoretically-sound dynamic programming algorithm for finding an optimal policy for the composite MDP. We analyze various aspects of our algorithm and illustrate its use on a simple merging problem. Every day, we are faced with the problem of doing mUltiple tasks in parallel, each of which competes for our attention and resource. If we are running a job shop, we must decide which machines to allocate to which jobs, and in what order, so that no jobs miss their deadlines. If we are a mail delivery robot, we must find the intended recipients of the mail while simultaneously avoiding fixed obstacles (such as walls) and mobile obstacles (such as people), and still manage to keep ourselves sufficiently charged up. Frequently we know how to perform each task in isolation; this paper considers how we can take the information we have about the individual tasks and combine it to efficiently find an optimal solution for doing the entire set of tasks in parallel. More importantly, we describe a theoretically-sound algorithm for doing this merging dynamically; new tasks (such as a new job arrival at a job shop) can be assimilated online into the solution being found for the ongoing set of simultaneous tasks.
Multi-time Models for Temporally Abstract Planning
Precup, Doina, Sutton, Richard S.
Planning and learning at multiple levels of temporal abstraction is a key problem for artificial intelligence. In this paper we summarize an approach to this problem based on the mathematical framework of Markov decision processes and reinforcement learning. Current model-based reinforcement learning is based on one-step models that cannot represent commonsense higher-level actions, such as going to lunch, grasping an object, or flying to Denver. This paper generalizes prior work on temporally abstract models [Sutton, 1995] and extends it from the prediction setting to include actions, control, and planning. We introduce a more general form of temporally abstract model, the multi-time model, and establish its suitability for planning and learning by virtue of its relationship to the Bellman equations. This paper summarizes the theoretical framework of multi-time models and illustrates their potential advantages in a grid world planning task.
Reinforcement Learning with Hierarchies of Machines
Parr, Ronald, Russell, Stuart J.
We present a new approach to reinforcement learning in which the policies considered by the learning process are constrained by hierarchies of partially specified machines. This allows for the use of prior knowledge to reduce the search space and provides a framework in which knowledge can be transferred across problems and in which component solutions can be recombined to solve larger and more complicated problems. Our approach can be seen as providing a link between reinforcement learning and "behavior-based" or "teleo-reactive" approaches to control. We present provably convergent algorithms for problem-solving and learning with hierarchical machines and demonstrate their effectiveness on a problem with several thousand states.
Adaptive Choice of Grid and Time in Reinforcement Learning
Consistency problems arise if the discretization needs to be refined, e.g. for more accuracy, application of multi-grid iteration or better starting values for the iteration of the approximate optimal value function. In [7] it was shown, that for diffusion dominated problems, a state to time discretization ratio k/ h of Ch'r, I
Automated Aircraft Recovery via Reinforcement Learning: Initial Experiments
Monaco, Jeffrey F., Ward, David G., Barto, Andrew G.
An emerging use of reinforcement learning (RL) is to approximate optimal policies for large-scale control problems through extensive simulated control experience. Described here are initial experiments directed toward the development of an automated recovery system (ARS) for high-agility aircraft. An ARS is an outer-loop flight control system designed to bring the aircraft from a range of initial states to straight, level, and non-inverted flight in minimum time while satisfying constraints such as maintaining altitude and accelerations within acceptable limits. Here we describe the problem and present initial results involving only single-axis (pitch) recoveries. Through extensive simulated control experience using a medium-fidelity simulation of an F-16, the RL system approximated an optimal policy for longitudinal-stick inputs to produce near-minimum-time transitions to straight and level flight in unconstrained cases, as well as while meeting a pilot-station acceleration constraint. 2 AIRCRAFT MODEL
Nonparametric Model-Based Reinforcement Learning
This paper describes some of the interactions of model learning algorithms and planning algorithms we have found in exploring model-based reinforcement learning. The paper focuses on how local trajectory optimizers can be used effectively with learned nonparametric models. We find that trajectory planners that are fully consistent with the learned model often have difficulty finding reasonable plans in the early stages of learning. Trajectory planners that balance obeying the learned model with minimizing cost (or maximizing reward) often do better, even if the plan is not fully consistent with the learned model.
The Observer-Observation Dilemma in Neuro-Forecasting
Zimmermann, Hans-Georg, Neuneier, Ralph
We explain how the training data can be separated into clean information and unexplainable noise. Analogous to the data, the neural network is separated into a time invariant structure used for forecasting, and a noisy part. We propose a unified theory connecting the optimization algorithms for cleaning and learning together with algorithms that control the data noise and the parameter noise. The combined algorithm allows a data-driven local control of the liability of the network parameters and therefore an improvement in generalization. The approach is proven to be very useful at the task of forecasting the German bond market.
A Solution for Missing Data in Recurrent Neural Networks with an Application to Blood Glucose Prediction
Tresp, Volker, Briegel, Thomas
We consider neural network models for stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems where measurements of the variable of interest are only available at irregular intervals i.e. most realizations are missing. Difficulties arise since the solutions for prediction and maximum likelihood learning with missing data lead to complex integrals, which even for simple cases cannot be solved analytically. In this paper we propose a specific combination of a nonlinear recurrent neural predictive model and a linear error model which leads to tractable prediction and maximum likelihood adaptation rules. In particular, the recurrent neural network can be trained using the real-time recurrent learning rule and the linear error model can be trained by an EM adaptation rule, implemented using forward-backward Kalman filter equations. The model is applied to predict the glucose/insulin metabolism of a diabetic patient where blood glucose measurements are only available a few times a day at irregular intervals.