We propose a new in-sample cross validation based method (randomized GACV) for choosing smoothing or bandwidth parameters that govern the bias-variance or fit-complexity tradeoff in'soft' classification. Soft classification refers to a learning procedure which estimates the probability that an example with a given attribute vector is in class 1 vs class O. The target for optimizing the the tradeoff is the Kullback-Liebler distance between the estimated probability distribution and the'true' probability distribution, representing knowledge of an infinite population. The method uses a randomized estimate of the trace of a Hessian and mimics cross validation at the cost of a single relearning with perturbed outcome data.

Fraud causes substantial losses to telecommunication carriers. Detection systems which automatically detect illegal use of the network can be used to alleviate the problem. Previous approaches worked on features derived from the call patterns of individual users. In this paper we present a call-based detection system based on a hierarchical regime-switching model. The detection problem is formulated as an inference problem on the regime probabilities.

In High Energy Physics experiments one has to sort through a high flux of events, at a rate of tens of MHz, and select the few that are of interest. One of the key factors in making this decision is the location of the vertex where the interaction, that led to the event, took place. Here we present a novel solution to the problem of finding the location of the vertex, based on two feedforward neural networks with fixed architectures, whose parameters are chosen so as to obtain a high accuracy. The system is tested on simulated data sets, and is shown to perform better than conventional algorithms. 1 Introduction An event in High Energy Physics (HEP) is the experimental result of an interaction during the collision of particles in an accelerator. The result of this interaction is the production of tens of particles, each of which is ejected in a different direction and energy. Due to the quantum mechanical effects involved, the events differ from one another in the number of particles produced, the types of particles, and their energies. The trajectories of produced particles are detected by a very large and sophisticated detector.

Gaussian Processes provide good prior models for spatial data, but can be too smooth. In many physical situations there are discontinuities along bounding surfaces, for example fronts in near-surface wind fields. We describe a modelling method for such a constrained discontinuity and demonstrate how to infer the model parameters in wind fields with MCMC sampling.

A key question in vision is how to represent our knowledge of previously encountered objects to classify new ones. The answer depends on how we determine the similarity of two objects. Similarity tells us how relevant each previously seen object is in determining the category to which a new object belongs.

One of the most important problems in visual perception is that of visual invariance: how are objects perceived to be the same despite undergoing transformations such as translations, rotations or scaling? In this paper, we describe a Bayesian method for learning invariances based on Lie group theory. We show that previous approaches based on first-order Taylor series expansions of inputs can be regarded as special cases of the Lie group approach, the latter being capable of handling in principle arbitrarily large transfonnations. Using a matrixexponential based generative model of images, we derive an unsupervised algorithm for learning Lie group operators from input data containing infinitesimal transfonnations.

Visual input liB persists after onset, and initializes the activity levels 9x (XiO). The activities are then modified by the contextual influences. Depending on the visual input, the system often settles into an oscillatory state (Gray A VI Modelo/Pop Out and Asymmetry in Visual Search 799 and Singer, 1989, see the details in Li 1998b). Temporal averages of gx(XiO) over several oscillation cycles are used as the model's output. The nature of the computation performed by the model is determined largely by the horizontal connections J and W, which are local (spanning only a few hypercolumns), and translation and rotation invariant (Figure 1B).

There has been much recent work on measuring image statistics and on learning probability distributions on images. We observe that the mapping from images to statistics is many-to-one and show it can be quantified by a phase space factor. This phase space approach throws light on the Minimax Entropy technique for learning Gibbs distributions on images with potentials derived from image statistics and elucidates the ambiguities that are inherent to determining the potentials. In addition, it shows that if the phase factor can be approximated by an analytic distribution then this approximation yields a swift "Minutemax" algorithm that vastly reduces the computation time for Minimax entropy learning. An illustration of this concept, using a Gaussian to approximate the phase factor, gives a good approximation to the results of Zhu and Mumford (1997) in just seconds of CPU time. The phase space approach also gives insight into the multi-scale potentials found by Zhu and Mumford (1997) and suggests that the forms of the potentials are influenced greatly by phase space considerations. Finally, we prove that probability distributions learned in feature space alone are equivalent to Minimax Entropy learning with a multinomial approximation of the phase factor. 1 Introduction Bayesian probability theory gives a powerful framework for visual perception (Knill and Richards 1996). This approach, however, requires specifying prior probabilities and likelihood functions. Learning these probabilities is difficult because it requires estimating distributions on random variables of very high dimensions (for example, images with 200 x 200 pixels, or shape curves of length 400 pixels).

We describe Maximum-Likelihood Continuity Mapping (MALCOM), an alternative to hidden Markov models (HMMs) for processing sequence data such as speech. While HMMs have a discrete "hidden" space constrained by a fixed finite-automaton architecture, MALCOM has a continuous hidden space-a continuity map-that is constrained only by a smoothness requirement on paths through the space. MALCOM fits into the same probabilistic framework for speech recognition as HMMs, but it represents a more realistic model of the speech production process. To evaluate the extent to which MALCOM captures speech production information, we generated continuous speech continuity maps for three speakers and used the paths through them to predict measured speech articulator data. The median correlation between the MALCOM paths obtained from only the speech acoustics and articulator measurements was 0.77 on an independent test set not used to train MALCOM or the predictor.

This paper introduces a method for regularization ofHMM systems that avoids parameter overfitting caused by insufficient training data. Regularization is done by augmenting the EM training method by a penalty term that favors simple and smooth HMM systems. The penalty term is constructed as a mixture model of negative exponential distributions that is assumed to generate the state dependent emission probabilities of the HMMs. This new method is the successful transfer of a well known regularization approach in neural networks to the HMM domain and can be interpreted as a generalization of traditional state-tying for HMM systems. The effect of regularization is demonstrated for continuous speech recognition tasks by improving overfitted triphone models and by speaker adaptation with limited training data. 1 Introduction One general problem when constructing statistical pattern recognition systems is to ensure the capability to generalize well, i.e. the system must be able to classify data that is not contained in the training data set.