We describe a class of probabilistic models that we call credibility networks. Using parse trees as internal representations of images, credibility networks are able to perform segmentation and recognition simultaneously, removing the need for ad hoc segmentation heuristics. Promising results in the problem of segmenting handwritten digits were obtained.

Transduction is an inference principle that takes a training sample and aims at estimating the values of a function at given points contained in the so-called working sample as opposed to the whole of input space for induction. Transduction provides a confidence measure on single predictions rather than classifiers - a feature particularly important for risk-sensitive applications. The possibly infinite number of functions is reduced to a finite number of equivalence classes on the working sample. A rigorous Bayesian analysis reveals that for standard classification loss we cannot benefit from considering more than one test point at a time. The probability of the label of a given test point is determined as the posterior measure of the corresponding subset of hypothesis space. We consider the PAC setting of binary classification by linear discriminant functions (perceptrons) in kernel space such that the probability of labels is determined by the volume ratio in version space. We suggest to sample this region by an ergodic billiard. Experimental results on real world data indicate that Bayesian Transduction compares favourably to the well-known Support Vector Machine, in particular if the posterior probability of labellings is used as a confidence measure to exclude test points of low confidence.

Zoubin Ghahramani and Matthew J. Beal Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit University College London 17 Queen Square, London WC1N 3AR, England {zoubin,m.beal}Ggatsby.ucl.ac.uk Abstract We present an algorithm that infers the model structure of a mixture of factor analysers using an efficient and deterministic variational approximation to full Bayesian integration over model parameters. This procedure can automatically determine the optimal number of components and the local dimensionality of each component (Le. the number of factors in each factor analyser). Alternatively it can be used to infer posterior distributions over number of components and dimensionalities. Since all parameters are integrated out the method is not prone to overfitting. Using a stochastic procedure for adding components it is possible to perform the variational optimisation incrementally and to avoid local maxima.

The nonnegative Boltzmann machine (NNBM) is a recurrent neural network model that can describe multimodal nonnegative data. Application of maximum likelihood estimation to this model gives a learning rule that is analogous to the binary Boltzmann machine. We examine the utility of the mean field approximation for the NNBM, and describe how Monte Carlo sampling techniques can be used to learn its parameters. Reflective slice sampling is particularly well-suited for this distribution, and can efficiently be implemented to sample the distribution. We illustrate learning of the NNBM on a transiationally invariant distribution, as well as on a generative model for images of human faces. Introduction The multivariate Gaussian is the most elementary distribution used to model generic data. It represents the maximum entropy distribution under the constraint that the mean and covariance matrix of the distribution match that of the data. For the case of binary data, the maximum entropy distribution that matches the first and second order statistics of the data is given by the Boltzmann machine [1].

Suppose there exists a function y* fo(x) from which we observe the measurements corrupted with noise ((Xl, YI),".

Although one can derive the Gaussian noise assumption based on a maximum entropy approach, the main reason for this assumption is practicability: under the Gaussian noise assumption the maximum likelihood parameter estimate can simply be found by minimization of the squared error. Despite its common use it is far from clear that the Gaussian noise assumption is a good choice for many practical problems. A reasonable approach therefore would be a noise distribution which contains the Gaussian as a special case but which has a tunable parameter that allows for more flexible distributions.

The curse of dimensionality is severe when modeling high-dimensional discrete data: the number of possible combinations of the variables explodes exponentially. In this paper we propose a new architecture for modeling high-dimensional data that requires resources (parameters and computations) that grow only at most as the square of the number of variables, using a multi-layer neural network to represent the joint distribution of the variables as the product of conditional distributions. The neural network can be interpreted as a graphical model without hidden random variables, but in which the conditional distributions are tied through the hidden units. The connectivity of the neural network can be pruned by using dependency tests between the variables. Experiments on modeling the distribution of several discrete data sets show statistically significant improvements over other methods such as naive Bayes and comparable Bayesian networks, and show that significant improvements can be obtained by pruning the network. 1 Introduction The curse of dimensionality hits particularly hard on models of high-dimensional discrete data because there are many more possible combinations of the values of the variables than can possibly be observed in any data set, even the large data sets now common in datamining applications.

Local "belief propagation" rules of the sort proposed by Pearl [15] are guaranteed to converge to the correct posterior probabilities in singly connected graphical models. Recently, a number of researchers have empirically demonstrated good performance of "loopy belief propagation" using these same rules on graphs with loops. Perhaps the most dramatic instance is the near Shannon-limit performance of "Turbo codes", whose decoding algorithm is equivalent to loopy belief propagation. Except for the case of graphs with a single loop, there has been little theoretical understanding of the performance of loopy propagation. Here we analyze belief propagation in networks with arbitrary topologies when the nodes in the graph describe jointly Gaussian random variables.

In particular, Mackay showed that by approximating the distributions of the weights with Gaussians and adopting smoothing priors, it is possible to obtain estimates of the weights and output variances and to automatically set the regularisation coefficients. Neal (1996) cast the net much further by introducing advanced Bayesian simulation methods, specifically the hybrid Monte Carlo method, into the analysis of neural networks [3]. Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo methods have also been shown to provide good training results, especially in time-varying scenarios [4]. More recently, Rios Insua and Muller (1998) and Holmes and Mallick (1998) have addressed the issue of selecting the number of hidden neurons with growing and pruning algorithms from a Bayesian perspective [5,6]. In particular, they apply the reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Green [7] to feed-forward sigmoidal networks and radial basis function (RBF) networks to obtain joint estimates of the number of neurons and weights. We also apply the reversible jump MCMC simulation algorithm to RBF networks so as to compute the joint posterior distribution of the radial basis parameters and the number of basis functions. However, we advance this area of research in two important directions. Firstly, we propose a full hierarchical prior for RBF networks.

In this paper we discuss the semi parametric statistical model for blind deconvolution. First we introduce a Lie Group to the manifold of noncausal FIR filters. Then blind deconvolution problem is formulated in the framework of a semiparametric model, and a family of estimating functions is derived for blind deconvolution. A natural gradient learning algorithm is developed for training noncausal filters. Stability of the natural gradient algorithm is also analyzed in this framework.