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On the subjective meaning of probability

Classics

Pragmatism, taken not just as a philosophical movement but as a way of addressing problems, strongly influenced the debate on the foundations of probability during the first half of the twentieth century. Upholders of different interpretations of probability such as Hans Reichenbach, Ernest Nagel, Rudolf Carnap, Frank Ramsey, and Bruno de Finetti, acknowledged their debt towards pragmatist philosophers, including Charles Sanders Peirce, William James, Clarence Irving Lewis, William Dewey and Giovanni Vailati. In addition, scientist-philosophers like Ernst Mach, Ludwig Boltzmann, Henri Poincaré, Pierre Duhem, and Karl Pearson, who heralded a conception of science and knowledge at large that was close to pragmatism, were very influential in that debate. Among the main interpretations of probability - frequentism, propensionism, logicism and subjectivism -, the latter is no doubt the closest to the pragmatist outlook. This paper concentrates on three representatives of the subjective theory, namely Frank Ramsey, Bruno de Finetti and Émile Borel.


ART2/BP architecture for adaptive estimation of dynamic processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

The goal has been to construct a supervised artificial neural network that learns incrementally an unknown mapping. As a result a network consisting of a combination of ART2 and backpropagation is proposed and is called an "ART2/BP" network. The ART2 network is used to build and focus a supervised backpropagation network. The ART2/BP network has the advantage of being able to dynamically expand itself in response to input patterns containing new information. Simulation results show that the ART2/BP network outperforms a classical maximum likelihood method for the estimation of a discrete dynamic and nonlinear transfer function.


Navigating through Temporal Difference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Barto, Sutton and Watkins [2] introduced a grid task as a didactic example of temporal difference planning and asynchronous dynamical pre gramming. This paper considers the effects of changing the coding of the input stimulus, and demonstrates that the self-supervised learning of a particular form of hidden unit representation improves performance.


Time Trials on Second-Order and Variable-Learning-Rate Algorithms

Neural Information Processing Systems

The performance of seven minimization algorithms are compared on five neural network problems. These include a variable-step-size algorithm, conjugate gradient, and several methods with explicit analytic or numerical approximations to the Hessian.


Speech Recognition Using Connectionist Approaches

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper is a summary of SPRINT project aims and results. The project focus on the use of neuro-computing techniques to tackle various problems that remain unsolved in speech recognition. First results concern the use of feedforward nets for phonetic units classification, isolated word recognition, and speaker adaptation.


From Speech Recognition to Spoken Language Understanding: The Development of the MIT SUMMIT and VOYAGER Systems

Neural Information Processing Systems

Spoken input to computers, however, has yet to pass the threshold of practicality. Despite some recent successful demonstrations, current speech recognition systems typically fall far short of human capabilities of continuous speech recognition with essentially unrestricted vocabulary and speakers, under adverse acoustic environments.


A Novel Approach to Prediction of the 3-Dimensional Structures of Protein Backbones by Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Since Kendrew & Perutz solved the first protein structures, myoglobin and hemoglobin, and explained from the discovered structures how these proteins perform their function, it has been widely recognized that protein function is intimately linked with protein structure[l]. Within the last two decades X-ray crystallographers have solved the 3-dimensional (3D) structures of a steadily increasing number of proteins in the crystalline state, and recently 2D-NMR spectroscopy has emerged as an alternative method for small proteins in solution. Today approximately three hundred 3D structures have been solved by these methods, although only about half of them can be considered as truly different, and only around a hundred of them are solved at high resolution (that is, less than 2A). The number of protein sequences known today is well over 20,000, and this number seems to be growing at least one order of magnitude faster than the number of known 3D protein structures. Obviously, it is of great importance to develop tools that can predict structural aspects of proteins on the basis of knowledge acquired from known 3D structures.


Design and Implementation of a High Speed CMAC Neural Network Using Programmable CMOS Logic Cell Arrays

Neural Information Processing Systems

A high speed implementation of the CMAC neural network was designed using dedicated CMOS logic. This technology was then used to implement two general purpose CMAC associative memory boards for the VME bus. Each board implements up to 8 independent CMAC networks with a total of one million adjustable weights. Each CMAC network can be configured to have from 1 to 512 integer inputs and from 1 to 8 integer outputs. Response times for typical CMAC networks are well below 1 millisecond, making the networks sufficiently fast for most robot control problems, and many pattern recognition and signal processing problems.



Continuous Speech Recognition by Linked Predictive Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a large vocabulary, continuous speech recognition system based on Linked Predictive Neural Networks (LPNN's). The system uses neural networks as predictors of speech frames, yielding distortion measures which are used by the One Stage DTW algorithm to perform continuous speech recognition. The system, already deployed in a Speech to Speech Translation system, currently achieves 95%, 58%, and 39% word accuracy on tasks with perplexity 5, 111, and 402 respectively, outperforming several simple HMMs that we tested. We also found that the accuracy and speed of the LPNN can be slightly improved by the judicious use of hidden control inputs. We conclude by discussing the strengths and weaknesses of the predictive approach.