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Solar radiation forecasting using ad-hoc time series preprocessing and neural networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we present an application of neural networks in the renewable energy domain. We have developed a methodology for the daily prediction of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. We use an ad-hoc time series preprocessing and a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) in order to predict solar radiation at daily horizon. First results are promising with nRMSE < 21% and RMSE < 998 Wh/m2. Our optimized MLP presents prediction similar to or even better than conventional methods such as ARIMA techniques, Bayesian inference, Markov chains and k-Nearest-Neighbors approximators. Moreover we found that our data preprocessing approach can reduce significantly forecasting errors.


Message-Based Web Service Composition, Integrity Constraints, and Planning under Uncertainty: A New Connection

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Thanks to recent advances, AI Planning has become the underlying technique for several applications. Figuring prominently among these is automated Web Service Composition (WSC) at the "capability" level, where services are described in terms of preconditions and effects over ontological concepts. A key issue in addressing WSC as planning is that ontologies are not only formal vocabularies; they also axiomatize the possible relationships between concepts. Such axioms correspond to what has been termed "integrity constraints" in the actions and change literature, and applying a web service is essentially a belief update operation. The reasoning required for belief update is known to be harder than reasoning in the ontology itself. The support for belief update is severely limited in current planning tools. Our first contribution consists in identifying an interesting special case of WSC which is both significant and more tractable. The special case, which we term "forward effects", is characterized by the fact that every ramification of a web service application involves at least one new constant generated as output by the web service. We show that, in this setting, the reasoning required for belief update simplifies to standard reasoning in the ontology itself. This relates to, and extends, current notions of "message-based" WSC, where the need for belief update is removed by a strong (often implicit or informal) assumption of "locality" of the individual messages. We clarify the computational properties of the forward effects case, and point out a strong relation to standard notions of planning under uncertainty, suggesting that effective tools for the latter can be successfully adapted to address the former. Furthermore, we identify a significant sub-case, named "strictly forward effects", where an actual compilation into planning under uncertainty exists. This enables us to exploit off-the-shelf planning tools to solve message-based WSC in a general form that involves powerful ontologies, and requires reasoning about partial matches between concepts. We provide empirical evidence that this approach may be quite effective, using Conformant-FF as the underlying planner.


Mining Generalized Patterns from Large Databases using Ontologies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) is a mathematical theory based on the formalization of the notions of concept and concept hierarchies. It has been successfully applied to several Computer Science fields such as data mining, software engineering, and knowledge engineering, and in many domains like medicine, psychology, linguistics and ecology. For instance, it has been exploited for the design, mapping and refinement of ontologies. In this paper, we show how FCA can benefit from a given domain ontology by analyzing the impact of a taxonomy (on objects and/or attributes) on the resulting concept lattice. We will mainly concentrate on the usage of a taxonomy to extract generalized patterns (i.e., knowledge generated from data when elements of a given domain ontology are used) in the form of concepts and rules, and improve navigation through these patterns. To that end, we analyze three generalization cases (,, and α) and show their impact on the size of the generalized pattern set. Different scenarios of simultaneous generalizations on both objects and attributes are also discussed.


Considerations on Construction Ontologies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The paper proposes an analysis on some existent ontologies, in order to point out ways to resolve semantic heterogeneity in information systems. Authors are highlighting the tasks in a Knowledge Acquisiton System and identifying aspects related to the addition of new information to an intelligent system. A solution is proposed, as a combination of ontology reasoning services and natural languages generation. A multi-agent system will be conceived with an extractor agent, a reasoner agent and a competence management agent.


I, Quantum Robot: Quantum Mind control on a Quantum Computer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The most important requirements, for an operator to be viewed as a proposition, is that it must be hermitian and idempotent (which, in the Hilbert case corresponds to projectors). We interpret the above restrictions as follows. Hermitian operators have real eigenvalues. In particular, idempotent operators have eigenvalues 0 or 1, that is, they allow for asserting or negating in the classical way. When the operator is not hermitian, it is true that there is no way to interpret it directly as a logical proposition, because its eigenvalues are not real numbers, and the proposition cannot be asserted as usual.


Automating Quantified Multimodal Logics in Simple Type Theory -- A Case Study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a case study in quantified multimodal logics. An interesting aspect of this case study is that off the shelf theorem provers and model generators for simple type theory, that is, classical higher-order logic, are employed to automate problems in quantified multimodal logics, that is, nonclassical logics. This is enabled by our recent embedding of normal quantified multimodal logics in simple type theory [8, 10], which is sound and complete [10]. Interestingly, not only reasoning within various nonclassical logics can be automated this way but also reasoning about them. For example, the equivalence between different properties of accessibility relations and their associated multimodal axioms can be proved automatically.


Approximate inference on planar graphs using Loop Calculus and Belief Propagation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce novel results for approximate inference on planar graphical models using the loop calculus framework. The loop calculus (Chertkov and Chernyak, 2006) allows to express the exact partition function of a graphical model as a finite sum of terms that can be evaluated once the belief propagation (BP) solution is known. In general, full summation over all correction terms is intractable. We develop an algorithm for the approach presented in (Certkov et al., 2008) which represents an efficient truncation scheme on planar graphs and a new representation of the series in terms of Pfaffians of matrices. We analyze the performance of the algorithm for the partition function approximation for models with binary variables and pairwise interactions on grids and other planar graphs. We study in detail both the loop series and the equivalent Pfaffian series and show that the first term of the Pfaffian series for the general, intractable planar model, can provide very accurate approximations. The algorithm outperforms previous truncation schemes of the loop series and is competitive with other state-of-the-art methods for approximate inference.


Complex Question Answering: Unsupervised Learning Approaches and Experiments

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Complex questions that require inferencing and synthesizing information from multiple documents can be seen as a kind of topic-oriented, informative multi-document summarization where the goal is to produce a single text as a compressed version of a set of documents with a minimum loss of relevant information. In this paper, we experiment with one empirical method and two unsupervised statistical machine learning techniques: K-means and Expectation Maximization (EM), for computing relative importance of the sentences. We compare the results of these approaches. Our experiments show that the empirical approach outperforms the other two techniques and EM performs better than K-means. However, the performance of these approaches depends entirely on the feature set used and the weighting of these features. In order to measure the importance and relevance to the user query we extract different kinds of features (i.e. lexical, lexical semantic, cosine similarity, basic element, tree kernel based syntactic and shallow-semantic) for each of the document sentences. We use a local search technique to learn the weights of the features. To the best of our knowledge, no study has used tree kernel functions to encode syntactic/semantic information for more complex tasks such as computing the relatedness between the query sentences and the document sentences in order to generate query-focused summaries (or answers to complex questions). For each of our methods of generating summaries (i.e. empirical, K-means and EM) we show the effects of syntactic and shallow-semantic features over the bag-of-words (BOW) features.


Granularity-Adaptive Proof Presentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When mathematicians present proofs they usually adapt their explanations to their didactic goals and to the (assumed) knowledge of their addressees. Modern automated theorem provers, in contrast, present proofs usually at a fixed level of detail (also called granularity). Often these presentations are neither intended nor suitable for human use. A challenge therefore is to develop user- and goal-adaptive proof presentation techniques that obey common mathematical practice. We present a flexible and adaptive approach to proof presentation that exploits machine learning techniques to extract a model of the specific granularity of proof examples and employs this model for the automated generation of further proofs at an adapted level of granularity.


Tag Clouds for Displaying Semantics: The Case of Filmscripts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We relate tag clouds to other forms of visualization, including planar or reduced dimensionality mapping, and Kohonen self-organizing maps. Using a modified tag cloud visualization, we incorporate other information into it, including text sequence and most pertinent words. Our notion of word pertinence goes beyond just word frequency and instead takes a word in a mathematical sense as located at the average of all of its pairwise relationships. We capture semantics through context, taken as all pairwise relationships. Our domain of application is that of filmscript analysis. The analysis of filmscripts, always important for cinema, is experiencing a major gain in importance in the context of television. Our objective in this work is to visualize the semantics of filmscript, and beyond filmscript any other partially structured, time-ordered, sequence of text segments. In particular we develop an innovative approach to plot characterization.