We propose a new method to compute prediction intervals. Especially forsmall data sets the width of a prediction interval does not only depend on the variance of the target distribution, but also on the accuracy of our estimator of the mean of the target, i.e., on the width of the confidence interval. The confidence interval follows from the variation in an ensemble of neural networks, each of them trained and stopped on bootstrap replicates of the original data set. A second improvement is the use of the residuals on validation patterns insteadof on training patterns for estimation of the variance of the target distribution. As illustrated on a synthetic example, our method is better than existing methods with regard to extrapolation andinterpolation in data regimes with a limited amount of data, and yields prediction intervals which actual confidence levels are closer to the desired confidence levels. 1 STATISTICAL INTERVALS In this paper we will consider feedforward neural networks for regression tasks: estimating an underlying mathematical function between input and output variables based on a finite number of data points possibly corrupted by noise.

Sometimes local features group into regions, as in texture segmentation; at other times they group into contours which may represent object boundaries. Although much is known about the processing steps that extract local features such as oriented input edges, it is still unclear how local features are grouped into global ones more meaningful for objects.

There is now considerable interest in using ensembles or committees of learning machines to improve the performance of the system over that of a single learning machine. In most neural network ensembles, the ensemble members are trained on either the same data (Hansen & Salamon 1990) or different subsets of the data (Perrone & Cooper 1993) . The ensemble members typically have different initial conditions and/ordifferent architectures. The subsets of the data may be chosen at random, with prior knowledge or by some principled approach e.g.

Time series prediction is one of the major applications of neural networks. Aftera short introduction into the basic theoretical foundations we argue that the iterated prediction of a dynamical system may be interpreted asa model of the system dynamics. By means of RBF neural networks we describe a modeling approach and extend it to be able to model instationary systems. As a practical test for the capabilities of the method we investigate the modeling of musical and speech signals and demonstrate that the model may be used for synthesis of musical and speech signals. 1 Introduction Since the formulation of the reconstruction theorem by Takens [10] it has been clear that a nonlinear predictor of a dynamical system may be directly derived from a systems time series. The method has been investigated extensively and with good success for the prediction oftime series of nonlinear systems. Especially the combination of reconstruction techniques and neural networks has shown good results [12].

Neural Computing Research Group Aston University Aston Triangle, Birmingham B4 7ET, UK. Abstract Given unlimited computational resources, it is best to use a criterion ofminimal expected generalisation error to select a model and determine its parameters. However, it may be worthwhile to sacrifice somegeneralisation performance for higher learning speed. A method for quantifying sub-optimality is set out here, so that this choice can be made intelligently. Furthermore, the method is applicable to a broad class of models, including the ultra-fast memory-based methods such as RAMnets. This brings the added benefit of providing, for the first time, the means to analyse the generalisation properties of such models in a Bayesian framework . 1 Introduction In order to quantitatively predict the performance of methods such as the ultra-fast RAMnet, which are not trained by minimising a cost function, we develop a Bayesian formalism for estimating the generalisation cost of a wide class of algorithms.

Many popular learning rules are formulated in terms of continuous, analoginputs and outputs. Biological systems, however, use action potentials, which are digital-amplitude events that encode analog information in the inter-event interval. Action-potential representations are now being used to advantage in neuromorphic VLSI systems as well. We report on a simple learning rule, based on the Riccati equation described by Kohonen [1], modified for action-potential neuronal outputs. We demonstrate this learning rule in an analog VLSI chip that uses volatile capacitive storage for synaptic weights. We show that our time-dependent learning rule is sufficient to achieve approximate weight normalization and can detect temporal correlations in spike trains.

The essential property of BBNs is summarized by the Markov condition, which asserts that each variable is independent of its non-descendants given its parents.

SaM can be said to do clustering/vector quantization (VQ) and at the same time to preserve the spatial ordering of the input data reflected by an ordering of the code book vectors (cluster centroids) in a one or two dimensional output space, where the latter property is closely related to multidimensional scaling (MDS) in statistics. Although the level of activity and research around the SaM algorithm is quite large (a recent overview by [Kohonen 95] contains more than 1000 citations), only little comparison among the numerous existing variants of the basic approach and also to more traditional statistical techniques of the larger frameworks of VQ and MDS is available. Additionally, thereis only little advice in the literature about how to properly use 446 A.Flexer SOM in order to get optimal results in terms of either vector quantization (VQ) or multidimensional scaling or maybe even both of them. To make the notion of SOM being a tool for "data visualization" more precise, the following question has to be answered: Should SOM be used for doing VQ, MDS, both at the same time or none of them? Two recent comprehensive studies comparing SOM either to traditional VQ or MDS techniques separately seem to indicate that SOM is not competitive when used for either VQ or MDS: [Balakrishnan et al. 94J compare SOM to K-means clustering on 108 multivariate normal clustering problems with known clustering solutions and show that SOM performs significantly worse in terms of data points misclassified

Closed-loop control relies on sensory feedback that is usually assumed tobe free . But if sensing incurs a cost, it may be costeffective totake sequences of actions in open-loop mode. We describe a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns to combine open-loop and closed-loop control when sensing incurs a cost. Although weassume reliable sensors, use of open-loop control means that actions must sometimes be taken when the current state of the controlled system is uncertain. This is a special case of the hidden-state problem in reinforcement learning, and to cope, our algorithm relies on short-term memory.

In most treatments of the regression problem it is assumed that the distribution of target data can be described by a deterministic function of the inputs, together with additive Gaussian noise having constantvariance. The use of maximum likelihood to train such models then corresponds to the minimization of a sum-of-squares error function. In many applications a more realistic model would allow the noise variance itself to depend on the input variables. However, the use of maximum likelihood to train such models would give highly biased results. In this paper we show how a Bayesian treatment can allow for an input-dependent variance while overcoming thebias of maximum likelihood. 1 Introduction In regression problems it is important not only to predict the output variables but also to have some estimate of the error bars associated with those predictions.