We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model parameters. We apply this novel methodology to five population growth models, including models with strong and weak Allee effects, and test if it can efficiently sample from the complex likelihood surface that is often associated with these models. Utilising real and also synthetically generated data sets we examine the extent to which observation noise and process error may frustrate efforts to choose between these models. Our novel algorithm involves an Adaptive Metropolis proposal combined with an SIR Particle MCMC algorithm (AdPMCMC). We show that the AdPMCMC algorithm samples complex, high-dimensional spaces efficiently, and is therefore superior to standard Gibbs or Metropolis Hastings algorithms that are known to converge very slowly when applied to the non-linear state space ecological models considered in this paper. Additionally, we show how the AdPMCMC algorithm can be used to recursively estimate the Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao Lower Bound of Tichavsk\'y (1998). We derive expressions for these Cram\'er-Rao Bounds and estimate them for the models considered. Our results demonstrate a number of important features of common population growth models, most notably their multi-modal posterior surfaces and dependence between the static and dynamic parameters. We conclude by sampling from the posterior distribution of each of the models, and use Bayes factors to highlight how observation noise significantly diminishes our ability to select among some of the models, particularly those that are designed to reproduce an Allee effect.

Modern solvers for Boolean Satisfiability (SA T) and Answer Set Programming (ASP) are based on sophisticated Boolean constraint solving techniques. In both areas, conflict-driven learning and related techniques constitute key features whose application is enabled by conflict analysis. Although various conflict analysis schemes have been proposed, implemented, and studied both theoretically and practically in the SA T area, the heuristic aspects involved in conflict analysis have not yet received much attention. Assuming a fixed conflict analysis scheme, we address the open question of how to identify "good" reasons for conflicts, and we investigate several heuristics for conflict analysis in ASP solving. To our knowledge, a systematic study like ours has not yet been performed in the SA T area, thus, it might be beneficial for both the field of ASP as well as the one of SA T solving.

It is hypothesized that creativity arises from the self-mending capacity of an internal model of the world, or worldview. The uniquely honed worldview of a creative individual results in a distinctive style that is recognizable within and across domains. It is further hypothesized that creativity is domaingeneral in the sense that there exist multiple avenues by which the distinctiveness of one's worldview can be expressed. These hypotheses were tested using art students and creative writing students. Art students guessed significantly above chance both which painting was done by which of five famous artists, and which artwork was done by which of their peers. Similarly, creative writing students guessed significantly above chance both which passage was written by which of five famous writers, and which passage was written by which of their peers. These findings support the hypothesis that creative style is recognizable. Moreover, creative writing students guessed significantly above chance which of their peers produced particular works of art, supporting the hypothesis that creative style is recognizable not just within but across domains.

Levesque introduced the notion of only-knowing to precisely capture the beliefs of a knowledge base. He also showed how only-knowing can be used to formalize non-monotonic behavior within a monotonic logic. Despite its appeal, all attempts to extend only-knowing to the many agent case have undesirable properties. A belief model by Halpern and Lakemeyer, for instance, appeals to proof-theoretic constructs in the semantics and needs to axiomatize validity as part of the logic. It is also not clear how to generalize their ideas to a first-order case. In this paper, we propose a new account of multi-agent only-knowing which, for the first time, has a natural possible-world semantics for a quantified language with equality. We then provide, for the propositional fragment, a sound and complete axiomatization that faithfully lifts Levesque's proof theory to the many agent case. We also discuss comparisons to the earlier approach by Halpern and Lakemeyer. 

In this paper, I defend a multiplicative approach that distinguishes statues from amounts of matter, political entities from physical ones, qua entities (e.g. John qua Alitalia passenger) from players (e.g. John), etc. I develop a theory of levels which is based on the primitive notions of level, parthood, and grounding (a kind of existential dependence) and that is used to characterize more specific relations like constitution, inherence, and abstraction. I neither aim to propose a `definitive' theory of levels nor to commit to their ontological or conceptual nature. Hence, the adjective `ontological' used in the title does not qualify the nature of the entities that belong to levels but the way the notion of level is characterized, i.e. in terms of general and philosophically well-founded notions. By keeping away from a purely realist attitude, I can then discuss the adequacy of some alternative first-order theories to account for three puzzling scenarios.

We investigate a class of first-order temporal epistemic logics for the specification of multi-agent systems. We consider well-known properties of multi-agent systems including perfect recall, synchronicity, no learning, unique initial state, and define natural correspondences of these into quantified interpreted systems, the semantics we use to reason about multiagent systems in a first-order setting. Our findings identify several monodic fragments of first-order temporal epistemic logic that we prove to be both sound and complete with respect to the corresponding classes of quantified interpreted systems. The results show that interaction axioms for propositional temporal epistemic logic can be lifted to the monodic fragment.

Standard approachs to belief change assume that the underlying logic contains classical propositional logic. Recently there has been interest in investigating approaches to belief change, specifically contraction, in which the underlying logic is not as expressive as full propositional logic. In this paper we consider approaches to belief contraction in Horn knowledge bases. We develop two broad approaches for Horn contraction, corresponding to the two major approaches in belief change, based on Horn belief sets and Horn belief bases. We argue that previous approaches, which have taken Horn remainder sets as a starting point, have undesirable properties, and moreover that not all desirable Horn contraction functions are captured by these approaches. This is shown in part by examining model-theoretic considerations involving Horn contraction. For Horn belief set contraction, we develop an account based in terms of weak remainder sets. Maxichoice and partial meet Horn contraction is specified, along with a consideration of package contraction. Following this we consider Horn belief base contraction, in which the underlying knowledge base is not necessarily closed under the Horn consequence relation. Again, approaches to maxichoice and partial meet belief set contraction are developed. In all cases, constructions of the specific operators and sets of postulates are provided, and representation results are obtained. As well, we show that problems arising with earlier work are resolved by these approaches.

We present a knowledge representation framework with an associated run-time support infrastructure that is able to compute, for the benefit of the members of a norm-governed multi-agent system, physically possible and/or permitted actions current at each time, as well as sanctions that should be applied to violations of prohibitions. Experimental results on a benchmark scenario indicate how by distributing norms we can provide run-time support to large-scale, norm-governed multi-agent systems.

Of the common commutative binary logical connectives, only and and or may be used as operators that take arbitrary numbers of arguments with order and multiplicity being irrelevant, that is, as connectives that take sets of arguments. This is especially evident in the Common Logic Interchange Format, in which it is easy for operators to be given arbitrary numbers of arguments. The reason is that and and or are associative and idempotent, as well as commutative. We extend the ability of taking sets of arguments to the other common commutative connectives by defining generalized versions of nand , nor , xor ,and iff , as well as the additional, parameterized connectives andor and thresh . We prove that andor is expressively complete — all the other connectives may be considered abbreviations of it.

The aim of semantic science is to allow for the publications of ontologies, observation data, and hypotheses/theories. Hypotheses make predictions on data and on new cases. Those hypotheses that fit the available evidence are called theories. This paper considers how thoeries can be used for predictions in new cases. Theories are typically very narrow and not all of the inputs to a theory are observed, so to make predictions on a particular case, many theories need to be used. Without any global design, the available theories do not necessarily fit together nicely. This paper explains how theories can be combined into theory ensembles to make predictions on a particular case. This is needed to evaluate theories, and to make useful predictions. We motivate and give desiderata for theory ensembles for level 1, feature-based, semantic science, which assumes that the data and the theories can be described in terms of features (random variables).