The paper presents a scheme for computing lower and upper bounds on the posterior marginals in Bayesian networks with discrete variables. Its power lies in its ability to use any available scheme that bounds the probability of evidence or posterior marginals and enhance its performance in an anytime manner. The scheme uses the cutset conditioning principle to tighten existing bounding schemes and to facilitate anytime behavior, utilizing a fixed number of cutset tuples. The accuracy of the bounds improves as the number of used cutset tuples increases and so does the computation time. We demonstrate empirically the value of our scheme for bounding posterior marginals and probability of evidence using a variant of the bound propagation algorithm as a plug-in scheme.

Model-based diagnostic reasoning often leads to a large number of diagnostic hypotheses. The set of diagnoses can be reduced by taking into account extra observations (passive monitoring), measuring additional variables (probing) or executing additional tests (sequential diagnosis/test sequencing). In this paper we combine the above approaches with techniques from Automated Test Pattern Generation (ATPG) and Model-Based Diagnosis (MBD) into a framework called FRACTAL (FRamework for ACtive Testing ALgorithms). Apart from the inputs and outputs that connect a system to its environment, in active testing we consider additional input variables to which a sequence of test vectors can be supplied. We address the computationally hard problem of computing optimal control assignments (as defined in FRACTAL) in terms of a greedy approximation algorithm called FRACTAL-G. We compare the decrease in the number of remaining minimal cardinality diagnoses of FRACTAL-G to that of two more FRACTAL algorithms: FRACTAL-ATPG and FRACTAL-P. FRACTAL-ATPG is based on ATPG and sequential diagnosis while FRACTAL-P is based on probing and, although not an active testing algorithm, provides a baseline for comparing the lower bound on the number of reachable diagnoses for the FRACTAL algorithms. We empirically evaluate the trade-offs of the three FRACTAL algorithms by performing extensive experimentation on the ISCAS85/74XXX benchmark of combinational circuits.

Real-time heuristic search algorithms satisfy a constant bound on the amount of planning per action, independent of problem size. As a result, they scale up well as problems become larger. This property would make them well suited for video games where Artificial Intelligence controlled agents must react quickly to user commands and to other agents' actions. On the downside, real-time search algorithms employ learning methods that frequently lead to poor solution quality and cause the agent to appear irrational by re-visiting the same problem states repeatedly. The situation changed recently with a new algorithm, D LRTA*, which attempted to eliminate learning by automatically selecting subgoals. D LRTA* is well poised for video games, except it has a complex and memory-demanding pre-computation phase during which it builds a database of subgoals. In this paper, we propose a simpler and more memory-efficient way of pre-computing subgoals thereby eliminating the main obstacle to applying state-of-the-art real-time search methods in video games. The new algorithm solves a number of randomly chosen problems off-line, compresses the solutions into a series of subgoals and stores them in a database. When presented with a novel problem on-line, it queries the database for the most similar previously solved case and uses its subgoals to solve the problem. In the domain of pathfinding on four large video game maps, the new algorithm delivers solutions eight times better while using 57 times less memory and requiring 14% less pre-computation time.

In the usual models of cooperative game theory, the outcome of a coalition formation process is either the grand coalition or a coalition structure that consists of disjoint coalitions. However, in many domains where coalitions are associated with tasks, an agent may be involved in executing more than one task, and thus may distribute his resources among several coalitions. To tackle such scenarios, we introduce a model for cooperative games with overlapping coalitionsor overlapping coalition formation (OCF) games. We then explore the issue of stability in this setting. In particular, we introduce a notion of the core, which generalizes the corresponding notion in the traditional (non-overlapping) scenario. Then, under some quite general conditions, we characterize the elements of the core, and show that any element of the core maximizes the social welfare. We also introduce a concept of balancedness for overlapping coalitional games, and use it to characterize coalition structures that can be extended to elements of the core. Finally, we generalize the notion of convexity to our setting, and show that under some natural assumptions convex games have a non-empty core. Moreover, we introduce two alternative notions of stability in OCF that allow a wider range of deviations, and explore the relationships among the corresponding definitions of the core, as well as the classic (non-overlapping) core and the Aubin core. We illustrate the general properties of the three cores, and also study them from a computational perspective, thus obtaining additional insights into their fundamental structure.

Ensemble learning aims to improve generalization ability by using multiple base learners. It is well-known that to construct a good ensemble, the base learners should be accurate as well as diverse. In this paper, unlabeled data is exploited to facilitate ensemble learning by helping augment the diversity among the base learners. Specifically, a semi-supervised ensemble method named UDEED is proposed. Unlike existing semi-supervised ensemble methods where error-prone pseudo-labels are estimated for unlabeled data to enlarge the labeled data to improve accuracy, UDEED works by maximizing accuracies of base learners on labeled data while maximizing diversity among them on unlabeled data. Experiments show that UDEED can effectively utilize unlabeled data for ensemble learning and is highly competitive to well-established semi-supervised ensemble methods.

This paper presents the R package gRapHD for efficient selection of high-dimensional undirected graphical models. The package provides tools for selecting trees, forests and decomposable models minimizing information criteria such as AIC or BIC, and for displaying the independence graphs of the models. It has also some useful tools for analysing graphical structures. It supports the use of discrete, continuous, or both types of variables simultaneously.

LAMA is a classical planning system based on heuristic forward search. Its core feature is the use of a pseudo-heuristic derived from landmarks, propositional formulas that must be true in every solution of a planning task. LAMA builds on the Fast Downward planning system, using finite-domain rather than binary state variables and multi-heuristic search. The latter is employed to combine the landmark heuristic with a variant of the well-known FF heuristic. Both heuristics are cost-sensitive, focusing on high-quality solutions in the case where actions have non-uniform cost. A weighted A* search is used with iteratively decreasing weights, so that the planner continues to search for plans of better quality until the search is terminated. LAMA showed best performance among all planners in the sequential satisficing track of the International Planning Competition 2008. In this paper we present the system in detail and investigate which features of LAMA are crucial for its performance. We present individual results for some of the domains used at the competition, demonstrating good and bad cases for the techniques implemented in LAMA. Overall, we find that using landmarks improves performance, whereas the incorporation of action costs into the heuristic estimators proves not to be beneficial. We show that in some domains a search that ignores cost solves far more problems, raising the question of how to deal with action costs more effectively in the future. The iterated weighted A* search greatly improves results, and shows synergy effects with the use of landmarks.

State-space search with explicit abstraction heuristics is at the state of the art of cost-optimal planning. These heuristics are inherently limited, nonetheless, because the size of the abstract space must be bounded by some, even if a very large, constant. Targeting this shortcoming, we introduce the notion of (additive) implicit abstractions, in which the planning task is abstracted by instances of tractable fragments of optimal planning. We then introduce a concrete setting of this framework, called fork-decomposition, that is based on two novel fragments of tractable cost-optimal planning. The induced admissible heuristics are then studied formally and empirically. This study testifies for the accuracy of the fork decomposition heuristics, yet our empirical evaluation also stresses the tradeoff between their accuracy and the runtime complexity of computing them. Indeed, some of the power of the explicit abstraction heuristics comes from precomputing the heuristic function offline and then determining h(s) for each evaluated state s by a very fast lookup in a ``database.'' By contrast, while fork-decomposition heuristics can be calculated in polynomial time, computing them is far from being fast. To address this problem, we show that the time-per-node complexity bottleneck of the fork-decomposition heuristics can be successfully overcome. We demonstrate that an equivalent of the explicit abstraction notion of a ``database'' exists for the fork-decomposition abstractions as well, despite their exponential-size abstract spaces. We then verify empirically that heuristic search with the ``databased" fork-decomposition heuristics favorably competes with the state of the art of cost-optimal planning.

Noisy probabilistic relational rules are a promising world model representation for several reasons. They are compact and generalize over world instantiations. They are usually interpretable and they can be learned effectively from the action experiences in complex worlds. We investigate reasoning with such rules in grounded relational domains. Our algorithms exploit the compactness of rules for efficient and flexible decision-theoretic planning. As a first approach, we combine these rules with the Upper Confidence Bounds applied to Trees (UCT) algorithm based on look-ahead trees. Our second approach converts these rules into a structured dynamic Bayesian network representation and predicts the effects of action sequences using approximate inference and beliefs over world states. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approaches for planning in a simulated complex 3D robot manipulation scenario with an articulated manipulator and realistic physics and in domains of the probabilistic planning competition. Empirical results show that our methods can solve problems where existing methods fail.

This paper studies the problem of learning clusters which are consistently present in different (continuously valued) representations of observed data. Our setup differs slightly from the standard approach of (co-) clustering as we use the fact that some form of `labeling' becomes available in this setup: a cluster is only interesting if it has a counterpart in the alternative representation. The contribution of this paper is twofold: (i) the problem setting is explored and an analysis in terms of the PAC-Bayesian theorem is presented, (ii) a practical kernel-based algorithm is derived exploiting the inherent relation to Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), as well as its extension to multiple views. A content based information retrieval (CBIR) case study is presented on the multi-lingual aligned Europal document dataset which supports the above findings.