We propose a novel method for inferring whether X causes Y or vice versa from joint observations of X and Y . The basic idea is to model the observed data using probabilistic latent variable models, which incorporate the effects of unobserved noise. To this end, we consider the hypothetical effect variable to be a function of the hypothetical cause variable and an independent noise term (not necessarily additive). An important novel aspect of our work is that we do not restrict the model class, but instead put general nonparametric priors on this function and on the distribution of the cause. The causal direction can then be inferred by using standard Bayesian model selection. We evaluate our approach on synthetic data and real-world data and report encouraging results.

We describe a log-bilinear" model that computes class probabilities by combining an input vector multiplicatively with a vector of binary latent variables. Even though the latent variables can take on exponentially many possible combinations of values, we can efficiently compute the exact probability of each class by marginalizing over the latent variables. This makes it possible to get the exact gradient of the log likelihood. The bilinear score-functions are defined using a three-dimensional weight tensor, and we show that factorizing this tensor allows the model to encode invariances inherent in a task by learning a dictionary of invariant basis functions. Experiments on a set of benchmark problems show that this fully probabilistic model can achieve classification performance that is competitive with (kernel) SVMs, backpropagation, and deep belief nets."

Divisive normalization (DN) has been advocated as an effective nonlinear {\em efficient coding} transform for natural sensory signals with applications in biology and engineering. In this work, we aim to establish a connection between the DN transform and the statistical properties of natural sensory signals. Our analysis is based on the use of multivariate {\em t} model to capture some important statistical properties of natural sensory signals. The multivariate {\em t} model justifies DN as an approximation to the transform that completely eliminates its statistical dependency. Furthermore, using the multivariate {\em t} model and measuring statistical dependency with multi-information, we can precisely quantify the statistical dependency that is reduced by the DN transform. We compare this with the actual performance of the DN transform in reducing statistical dependencies of natural sensory signals. Our theoretical analysis and quantitative evaluations confirm DN as an effective efficient coding transform for natural sensory signals. On the other hand, we also observe a previously unreported phenomenon that DN may increase statistical dependencies when the size of pooling is small.

Computing two-way and multi-way set similarities is a fundamental problem. This study focuses on estimating 3-way resemblance (Jaccard similarity) using b-bit minwise hashing. While traditional minwise hashing methods store each hashed value using 64 bits, b-bit minwise hashing only stores the lowest b bits (where b>= 2 for 3-way). The extension to 3-way similarity from the prior work on 2-way similarity is technically non-trivial. We develop the precise estimator which is accurate and very complicated; and we recommend a much simplified estimator suitable for sparse data. Our analysis shows that $b$-bit minwise hashing can normally achieve a 10 to 25-fold improvement in the storage space required for a given estimator accuracy of the 3-way resemblance.

We propose a new supervised learning framework for visual object counting tasks, such as estimating the number of cells in a microscopic image or the number of humans in surveillance video frames. We focus on the practically-attractive case when the training images are annotated with dots (one dot per object). Our goal is to accurately estimate the count. However, we evade the hard task of learning to detect and localize individual object instances. Instead, we cast the problem as that of estimating an image density whose integral over any image region gives the count of objects within that region. Learning to infer such density can be formulated as a minimization of a regularized risk quadratic cost function. We introduce a new loss function, which is well-suited for such learning, and at the same time can be computed efficiently via a maximum subarray algorithm. The learning can then be posed as a convex quadratic program solvable with cutting-plane optimization. The proposed framework is very flexible as it can accept any domain-specific visual features. Once trained, our system provides accurate object counts and requires a very small time overhead over the feature extraction step, making it a good candidate for applications involving real-time processing or dealing with huge amount of visual data.

We develop an online variational Bayes (VB) algorithm for Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Online LDA is based on online stochastic optimization with a natural gradient step, which we show converges to a local optimum of the VB objective function. It can handily analyze massive document collections, including those arriving in a stream. We study the performance of online LDA in several ways, including by fitting a 100-topic topic model to 3.3M articles from Wikipedia in a single pass. We demonstrate that online LDA finds topic models as good or better than those found with batch VB, and in a fraction of the time.

Many problems in machine learning and statistics can be formulated as (generalized) eigenproblems. In terms of the associated optimization problem, computing linear eigenvectors amounts to finding critical points of a quadratic function subject to quadratic constraints. In this paper we show that a certain class of constrained optimization problems with nonquadratic objective and constraints can be understood as nonlinear eigenproblems. We derive a generalization of the inverse power method which is guaranteed to converge to a nonlinear eigenvector. We apply the inverse power method to 1-spectral clustering and sparse PCA which can naturally be formulated as nonlinear eigenproblems. In both applications we achieve state-of-the-art results in terms of solution quality and runtime. Moving beyond the standard eigenproblem should be useful also in many other applications and our inverse power method can be easily adapted to new problems.

Modelling camera shake as a space-invariant convolution simplifies the problem of removing camera shake, but often insufficiently models actual motion blur such as those due to camera rotation and movements outside the sensor plane or when objects in the scene have different distances to the camera. In order to overcome such limitations we contribute threefold: (i) we introduce a taxonomy of camera shakes, (ii) we show how to combine a recently introduced framework for space-variant filtering based on overlap-add from Hirsch et al.~and a fast algorithm for single image blind deconvolution for space-invariant filters from Cho and Lee to introduce a method for blind deconvolution for space-variant blur. And (iii), we present an experimental setup for evaluation that allows us to take images with real camera shake while at the same time record the space-variant point spread function corresponding to that blur. Finally, we demonstrate that our method is able to deblur images degraded by spatially-varying blur originating from real camera shake.

We present a new learning strategy for classification problems in which train and/or test data suffer from missing features. In previous work, instances are represented as vectors from some feature space and one is forced to impute missing values or to consider an instance-specific subspace. In contrast, our method considers instances as sets of (feature,value) pairs which naturally handle the missing value case. Building onto this framework, we propose a classification strategy for sets. Our proposal maps (feature,value) pairs into an embedding space and then non-linearly combines the set of embedded vectors. The embedding and the combination parameters are learned jointly on the final classification objective. This simple strategy allows great flexibility in encoding prior knowledge about the features in the embedding step and yields advantageous results compared to alternative solutions over several datasets.

We tackle the fundamental problem of Bayesian active learning with noise, where we need to adaptively select from a number of expensive tests in order to identify an unknown hypothesis sampled from a known prior distribution. In the case of noise-free observations, a greedy algorithm called generalized binary search (GBS) is known to perform near-optimally. We show that if the observations are noisy, perhaps surprisingly, GBS can perform very poorly. We develop EC2, a novel, greedy active learning algorithm and prove that it is competitive with the optimal policy, thus obtaining the first competitiveness guarantees for Bayesian active learning with noisy observations. Our bounds rely on a recently discovered diminishing returns property called adaptive submodularity, generalizing the classical notion of submodular set functions to adaptive policies. Our results hold even if the tests have non–uniform cost and their noise is correlated. We also propose EffECXtive, a particularly fast approximation of EC2, and evaluate it on a Bayesian experimental design problem involving human subjects, intended to tease apart competing economic theories of how people make decisions under uncertainty.