Variational approximations are becoming a widespread tool for Bayesian learning of graphical models. We provide some theoretical results for the variational updates in a very general family of conjugate-exponential graphical models. We show how the belief propagation and the junction tree algorithms can be used in the inference step of variational Bayesian learning. Applying these results to the Bayesian analysis of linear-Gaussian state-space models we obtain a learning procedure that exploits the Kalman smoothing propagation, while integrating over all model parameters. We demonstrate how this can be used to infer the hidden state dimensionality of the state-space model in a variety of synthetic problems and one real high-dimensional data set. 1 Introduction Bayesian approaches to machine learning have several desirable properties.

In multi-service communications networks, such as Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) networks, resource control is of crucial importance for the network operator as well as for the users. The objective is to maintain the service quality while maximizing the operator's revenue. At the call level, service quality (Grade of Service) is measured in terms of call blocking probabilities, and the key resource to be controlled is bandwidth. Network routing and call admission control (CAC) are two such resource control problems. Markov decision processes offer a framework for optimal CAC and routing [1]. By modelling the dynamics of the network with traffic and computing control policies using dynamic programming [2], resource control is optimized. A standard assumption in such models is that calls arrive according to Poisson processes. This makes the models of the dynamics relatively simple. Although the Poisson assumption is valid for most user-initiated requests in communications networks, a number of studies [3, 4, 5] indicate that many types of arrival similar.

The Bayesian paradigm apparently only sometimes gives rise to Occam's Razor; at other times very large models perform well. We give simple examples of both kinds of behaviour. The two views are reconciled when measuring complexity of functions, rather than of the machinery used to implement them. We analyze the complexity of functions for some linear in the parameter models that are equivalent to Gaussian Processes, and always find Occam's Razor at work. 1 Introduction Occam's Razor is a well known principle of "parsimony of explanations" which is influential in scientific thinking in general and in problems of statistical inference in particular. In this paper we review its consequences for Bayesian statistical models, where its behaviour can be easily demonstrated and quantified.

Visual input, provided by a video camera on a miniature robot, is preprocessed by a set of Gabor filters on 31 nodes of a log-polar retinotopic graph. Unsupervised Hebbian learning is employed to incrementally build a population of localized overlapping place fields. Place cells serve as basis functions for reinforcement learning. Experimental results for goal-oriented navigation of a mobile robot are presented.

Experimental data have shown that synapses are heterogeneous: different synapses respond with different sequences of amplitudes of postsynaptic responses to the same spike train. Neither the role of synaptic dynamics itself nor the role of the heterogeneity of synaptic dynamics for computations in neural circuits is well understood. We present in this article methods that make it feasible to compute for a given synapse with known synaptic parameters the spike train that is optimally fitted to the synapse, for example in the sense that it produces the largest sum of postsynaptic responses. To our surprise we find that most of these optimally fitted spike trains match common firing patterns of specific types of neurons that are discussed in the literature. 1 Introduction A large number of experimental studies have shown that biological synapses have an inherent dynamics, which controls how the pattern of amplitudes of postsynaptic responses depends on the temporal pattern of the incoming spike train. Various quantitative models have been proposed involving a small number of characteristic parameters, that allow us to predict the response of a given synapse to a given spike train once proper values for these characteristic synaptic parameters have been found. The analysis of this article is based on the model of [1], where three parameters U, F, D control the dynamics of a synapse and a fourth parameter A - which corresponds to the synaptic "weight" in static synapse models - scales the absolute sizes of the postsynaptic responses. The resulting model predicts the amplitude Ak for the kth spike in a spike train with interspike intervals (lSI's) .60

The naive mean-field approach fails in this case whereas linear response theory-which gives an improved estimate of covariances-is very efficient. The examples given are for sources without temporal correlations .

The model structure is an abstrac- tion of the hippocampus or the olfactory cortex. We propose a simple generalized Hebbian rule, using temporal-activity-dependent LTP and LTD, to encode both magnitudes and phases of oscillatory patterns into the synapses in the network. After learning, the model responds resonantly to inputs which have been learned (or, for networks which operate essentially linearly, to linear combinations of learned inputs), but negligibly to other input patterns. Encoding both amplitude and phase enhances computational capacity, for which the price is having to learn both the excitatory-to-excitatory and the excitatory-to-inhibitory connections. Our model puts contraints on the form of the learning kernal A(r) that should be experimenally observed, e.g., for small oscillation frequencies, it requires that the overall LTP dominates the overall LTD, but this requirement should be modified if the stored oscillations are of high frequencies.

In this paper, we propose a new particle filter based on sequential importance sampling. The algorithm uses a bank of unscented filters to obtain the importance proposal distribution. This proposal has two very "nice" properties. Firstly, it makes efficient use of the latest available information and, secondly, it can have heavy tails. As a result, we find that the algorithm outperforms standard particle filtering and other nonlinear filtering methods very substantially.

In this paper, we derive a second order mean field theory for directed graphical probability models. By using an information theoretic argument it is shown how this can be done in the absense of a partition function. This method is a direct generalisation of the well-known TAP approximation for Boltzmann Machines. In a numerical example, it is shown that the method greatly improves the first order mean field approximation. For a restricted class of graphical models, so-called single overlap graphs, the second order method has comparable complexity to the first order method. For sigmoid belief networks, the method is shown to be particularly fast and effective.

We estimate a statistical model of typical activities from a large set of 3D periodic human motion data by segmenting these data automatically into "cycles". Then the mean and the principal components of the cycles are computed using a new algorithm that accounts for missing information and enforces smooth transitions between cycles. The learned temporal model provides a prior probability distribution over human motions that can be used in a Bayesian framework for tracking human subjects in complex monocular video sequences and recovering their 3D motion. 1 Introduction The modeling and tracking of human motion in video is important for problems as varied as animation, video database search, sports medicine, and human-computer interaction. Technically, the human body can be approximated by a collection of articulated limbs and its motion can be thought of as a collection of time-series describing the joint angles as they evolve over time. A key challenge in modeling these joint angles involves decomposing the time-series into suitable temporal primitives.