The adaptive TAP Gibbs free energy for a general densely connected probabilistic model with quadratic interactions and arbritary single site constraints is derived. We show how a specific sequential minimization of the free energy leads to a generalization of Minka's expectation propagation. Lastly, we derive a sparse representation version of the sequential algorithm. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated on classification and density estimation with Gaussian processes and on an independent component analysis problem.

In this model, each training example is a set (or bag) of instances along with a single label equal to the maximum label among all instances in the bag. The individual instances within the bag are not given labels. The goal is to learn to accurately predict the label of previously unseen bags. Standard supervised learning can be viewed as a special case of MI learning where each bag holds a single instance. The MI learning model was originally motivated by the drug activity prediction problem where each instance is a possible conformation (or shape) of a molecule and each bag contains all likely low-energy conformations for the molecule.

SMC is often referred to as particle filtering (PF) in the context of computing filtering distributions for statistical inference and learning. It is known that the performance of PF often deteriorates in high-dimensional state spaces. In the past, we have shown that if a model admits partial analytical tractability, it is possible to combine PF with exact algorithms (Kalman filters, HMM filters, junction tree algorithm) to obtain efficient high dimensional filters (Doucet, de Freitas, Murphy and Russell 2000, Doucet, Godsill and Andrieu 2000). In particular, we exploited a marginalisation technique known as Rao-Blackwellisation (RB). Here, we attack a more complex model that does not admit immediate analytical tractability.

Recently Hinton (1999) has introduced the Products of Experts (PoE) model in which several individual probabilistic models for data are combined to provide an overall model of the data. Below we consider PoE models in which each expert is a Gaussian. Although the product of Gaussians is also a Gaussian, if each Gaussian has a simple structure the product can have a richer structure. We examine (1) Products of Gaussian pancakes which give rise to probabilistic Minor Components Analysis, (2) products of I-factor PPCA models and (3) a products of experts construction for an AR(l) process. Recently Hinton (1999) has introduced the Products of Experts (PoE) model in which several individual probabilistic models for data are combined to provide an overall model of the data. In this paper we consider PoE models in which each expert is a Gaussian. It is easy to see that in this case the product model will also be Gaussian. However, if each Gaussian has a simple structure, the product can have a richer structure. Using Gaussian experts is attractive as it permits a thorough analysis of the product architecture, which can be difficult with other models, e.g.

The choice of an SVM kernel corresponds to the choice of a representation of the data in a feature space and, to improve performance, it should therefore incorporate prior knowledge such as known transformation invariances. We propose a technique which extends earlier work and aims at incorporating invariances in nonlinear kernels. We show on a digit recognition task that the proposed approach is superior to the Virtual Support Vector method, which previously had been the method of choice. 1 Introduction In some classification tasks, an a priori knowledge is known about the invariances related to the task. For instance, in image classification, we know that the label of a given image should not change after a small translation or rotation.

In this paper we show that online algorithms for classification and regression can be naturally used to obtain hypotheses with good datadependent tail bounds on their risk. Our results are proven without requiring complicated concentration-of-measure arguments and they hold for arbitrary online learning algorithms. Furthermore, when applied to concrete online algorithms, our results yield tail bounds that in many cases are comparable or better than the best known bounds.

Recurrent neural networks of analog units are computers for realvalued functions. We study the time complexity of real computation in general recurrent neural networks. These have sigmoidal, linear, and product units of unlimited order as nodes and no restrictions on the weights. For networks operating in discrete time, we exhibit a family of functions with arbitrarily high complexity, and we derive almost tight bounds on the time required to compute these functions. Thus, evidence is given of the computational limitations that time-bounded analog recurrent neural networks are subject to. 1 Introduction Analog recurrent neural networks are known to have computational capabilities that exceed those of classical Turing machines (see, e.g., Siegelmann and Sontag, 1995; Kilian and Siegelmann, 1996; Siegelmann, 1999).

Driven by the progress in the field of single-trial analysis of EEG, there is a growing interest in brain computer interfaces (BCIs), i.e., systems that enable human subjects to control a computer only by means of their brain signals. In a pseudo-online simulation our BCI detects upcoming finger movements in a natural keyboard typing condition and predicts their laterality. This can be done on average 100-230 ms before the respective key is actually pressed, i.e., long before the onset of EMG. Our approach is appealing for its short response time and high classification accuracy ( 96%) in a binary decision where no human training is involved. We compare discriminative classifiers like Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and different variants of Fisher Discriminant that possess favorable regularization properties for dealing with high noise cases (inter-trial variablity).

We propose a novel clustering method that is an extension of ideas inherent to scale-space clustering and support-vector clustering. Like the latter, it associates every data point with a vector in Hilbert space, and like the former it puts emphasis on their total sum, that is equal to the scalespace probability function. The novelty of our approach is the study of an operator in Hilbert space, represented by the Schrödinger equation of which the probability function is a solution. This Schrödinger equation contains a potential function that can be derived analytically from the probability function.

When applying unsupervised learning techniques like ICA or temporal decorrelation, a key question is whether the discovered projections are reliable. In other words: can we give error bars or can we assess the quality of our separation? We use resampling methods to tackle these questions and show experimentally that our proposed variance estimations are strongly correlated to the separation error. We demonstrate that this reliability estimation can be used to choose the appropriate ICA-model, to enhance significantly the separation performance, and, most important, to mark the components that have a actual physical meaning.