The 2002 Trading Agent Competition (TAC) presented a challenging market game in the domain of travel shopping. One of the pivotal issues in this domain is uncertainty about hotel prices, which have a significant influence on the relative cost of alternative trip schedules. Thus, virtually all participants employ some method for predicting hotel prices. We survey approaches employed in the tournament, finding that agents apply an interesting diversity of techniques, taking into account differing sources of evidence bearing on prices. Based on data provided by entrants on their agents' actual predictions in the TAC-02 finals and semifinals, we analyze the relative efficacy of these approaches. The results show that taking into account game-specific information about flight prices is a major distinguishing factor. Machine learning methods effectively induce the relationship between flight and hotel prices from game data, and a purely analytical approach based on competitive equilibrium analysis achieves equal accuracy with no historical data. Employing a new measure of prediction quality, we relate absolute accuracy to bottom-line performance in the game.

In Slow Feature Analysis (SFA [1]), it has been demonstrated that high-order invariant properties can be extracted by projecting inputs into a nonlinear space and computing the slowest changing features in this space; this has been proposed as a simple general model for learning nonlinear invariances in the visual system. However, this method is highly constrained by the curse of dimensionality which limits it to simple theoretical simulations. This paper demonstrates that by using a different but closely-related objective function for extracting slowly varying features ([2, 3]), and then exploiting the kernel trick, this curse can be avoided. Using this new method we show that both the complex cell properties of translation invariance and disparity coding can be learnt simultaneously from natural images when complex cells are driven by simple cells also learnt from the image. The notion of maximising an objective function based upon the temporal predictability of output has been progressively applied in modelling the development of invariances in the visual system.

We apply the replica method of Statistical Physics combined with a variational methodto the approximate analytical computation of bootstrap averages for estimating the generalization error. We demonstrate our approach onregression with Gaussian processes and compare our results with averages obtained by Monte-Carlo sampling.

Echo state networks (ESN) are a novel approach to recurrent neural network training. An ESN consists of a large, fixed, recurrent "reservoir" network, from which the desired output is obtained by training suitable output connection weights. Determination of optimal output weights becomes a linear, uniquely solvable task of MSE minimization. This article reviews the basic ideas and describes an online adaptation scheme based on the RLS algorithm known from adaptive linear systems. As an example, a 10th order NARMA system is adaptively identified.

There are several reinforcement learning algorithms that yield approximate solutions for the problem of policy evaluation when the value function is represented with a linear function approximator. In this paper we show that each of the solutions is optimal with respect to a specific objective function.

Gaussian processes provide an approach to nonparametric modelling which allows a straightforward combination of function and derivative observations in an empirical model. This is of particular importance in identification of nonlinear dynamic systems from experimental data.

They are very well suited to handle discrete of continuous sequences of varying sizes. Moreover, an efficient training algorithm (EM) is available, as well as an efficient decoding algorithm (Viterbi), which provides the optimal sequence of states (and the corresponding sequence of high level events) associated with a given sequence of low-level data. On the other hand, multimodal information processing is currently a very challenging framework of applications including multimodal person authentication, multimodal speech recognition, multimodal event analyzers, etc. In that framework, the same sequence of events is represented not only by a single sequence of data but by a series of sequences of data, each of them coming eventually from a different modality: video streams with various viewpoints, audio stream(s), etc. One such task, which will be presented in this paper, is multimodal speech recognition using both a microphone and a camera recording a speaker simultaneously while he (she) speaks.

We consider the problem of illusory or artefactual structure from the visualisation of high-dimensional structureless data. In particular we examine the role of the distance metric in the use of topographic mappings based on the statistical field of multidimensional scaling. We show that the use of a squared Euclidean metric (i.e. the SS

We describe the RA scanner, a novel system for the examination of patients suffering from rheumatoid arthritis. The RA scanner is based on a novel laser-based imaging technique which is sensitive to the optical characteristics of finger joint tissue. Based on the laser images, finger joints are classified according to whether the inflammatory status has improved or worsened. To perform the classification task, various linear and kernel-based systems were implemented and their performances were compared. Special emphasis was put on measures to reliably perform parameter tuning and evaluation, since only a very small data set was available. Based on the results presented in this paper, it was concluded that the RA scanner permits a reliable classification of pathological finger joints, thus paving the way for a further development from prototype to product stage.

We propose a framework for classifier design based on discriminative densities for representation of the differences of the class-conditional distributions in a way that is optimal for classification. The densities are selected from a parametrized set by constrained maximization of some objective function which measures the average (bounded) difference, i.e. the contrast between discriminative densities. We show that maximization of the contrast is equivalent to minimization of an approximation of the Bayes risk.