The paper presents a new sampling methodology for Bayesian networks that samples only a subset of variables and applies exact inference to the rest. Cutset sampling is a network structure-exploiting application of the Rao-Blackwellisation principle to sampling in Bayesian networks. It improves convergence by exploiting memory-based inference algorithms. It can also be viewed as an anytime approximation of the exact cutset-conditioning algorithm developed by Pearl. Cutset sampling can be implemented efficiently when the sampled variables constitute a loop-cutset of the Bayesian network and, more generally, when the induced width of the network's graph conditioned on the observed sampled variables is bounded by a constant w. We demonstrate empirically the benefit of this scheme on a range of benchmarks.

We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal predictor $M$ from the true distribution $mu$ by the algorithmic complexity of $mu$. Here we assume we are at a time $t>1$ and already observed $x=x_1...x_t$. We bound the future prediction performance on $x_{t+1}x_{t+2}...$ by a new variant of algorithmic complexity of $mu$ given $x$, plus the complexity of the randomness deficiency of $x$. The new complexity is monotone in its condition in the sense that this complexity can only decrease if the condition is prolonged. We also briefly discuss potential generalizations to Bayesian model classes and to classification problems.

In this paper, we determine the complexity of the satisfiability problem for various logics obtained by adding numerical quantifiers, and other constructions, to the traditional syllogistic. In addition, we demonstrate the incompleteness of some recently proposed proof-systems for these logics.

Neurons can have rapidly changing spike train statistics dictated by the underlying network excitability or behavioural state of an animal. To estimate the time course of such state dynamics from single-or multiple neuron recordings, we have developed an algorithm that maximizes the likelihood of observed spike trains by optimizing the state lifetimes and the state-conditional interspike-interval (ISI) distributions. Our nonparametric algorithm is free of time-binning and spike-counting problems and has the computational complexity of a Mixed-state Markov Model operating on a state sequence of length equal to the total number of recorded spikes. As an example, we fit a two-state model to paired recordings of premotor neurons in the sleeping songbird. We find that the two state-conditional ISI functions are highly similar to the ones measured during waking and singing, respectively.

For this purpose, we propose a stochastic procedure, the mirror descent, which performs gradient descent in the dual space. The generated estimates are additionally averaged in a recursive fashion with specific weights. Mirror descent algorithms have been developed in different contexts and they are known to be particularly efficient in high dimensional problems. Moreover their implementation is adapted to the online setting. The main result of the paper is the upper bound on the convergence rate for the generalization error.

The problem of computing a resample estimate for the reconstruction error in PCA is reformulated as an inference problem with the help of the replica method. Using the expectation consistent (EC) approximation, the intractable inference problem can be solved efficiently using only two variational parameters. A perturbative correction to the result is computed and an alternative simplified derivation is also presented.

This paper presents a non-asymptotic statistical analysis of Kernel-PCA with a focus different from the one proposed in previous work on this topic. Here instead of considering the reconstruction error of KPCA we are interested in approximation error bounds for the eigenspaces themselves. We prove an upper bound depending on the spacing between eigenvalues but not on the dimensionality of the eigenspace. As a consequence this allows to infer stability results for these estimated spaces.

When trying to understand the brain, it is of fundamental importance to analyse (e.g. from EEG/MEG measurements) what parts of the cortex interact with each other in order to infer more accurate models of brain activity. Common techniques like Blind Source Separation (BSS) can estimate brain sources and single out artifacts by using the underlying assumption of source signal independence. However, physiologically interesting brain sources typically interact, so BSS will--by construction-- fail to characterize them properly. Noting that there are truly interacting sources and signals that only seemingly interact due to effects of volume conduction, this work aims to contribute by distinguishing these effects. For this a new BSS technique is proposed that uses anti-symmetrized cross-correlation matrices and subsequent diagonalization. The resulting decomposition consists of the truly interacting brain sources and suppresses any spurious interaction stemming from volume conduction. Our new concept of interacting source analysis (ISA) is successfully demonstrated on MEG data.

While classical kernel-based learning algorithms are based on a single kernel, in practice it is often desirable to use multiple kernels. Lankriet et al. (2004) considered conic combinations of kernel matrices for classification, leading to a convex quadratically constraint quadratic program. We show that it can be rewritten as a semi-infinite linear program that can be efficiently solved by recycling the standard SVM implementations. Moreover, we generalize the formulation and our method to a larger class of problems, including regression and one-class classification. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm helps for automatic model selection, improving the interpretability of the learning result and works for hundred thousands of examples or hundreds of kernels to be combined.

A standard method to obtain stochastic models for symbolic time series is to train state-emitting hidden Markov models (SE-HMMs) with the Baum-Welch algorithm. Based on observable operator models (OOMs), in the last few months a number of novel learning algorithms for similar purposes have been developed: (1,2) two versions of an "efficiency sharpening" (ES) algorithm, which iteratively improves the statistical efficiency of a sequence of OOM estimators, (3) a constrained gradient descent ML estimator for transition-emitting HMMs (TE-HMMs). We give an overview on these algorithms and compare them with SE-HMM/EM learning on synthetic and real-life data.