We are concerned in this paper with the application of multiple models, specifically the Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts, to time series prediction, specifically the problem of predicting acoustic vectors for use in speech coding. There have been a number of applications of multiple models in time series prediction. A classic example is the Threshold Autoregressive model (TAR) which was used by Tong & 836 S. R. Waterhouse, A. J. Robinson Lim (1980) to predict sunspot activity. More recently, Lewis, Kay and Stevens (in Weigend & Gershenfeld (1994)) describe the use of Multivariate and Regression Splines (MARS) to the prediction of future values of currency exchange rates. Finally, in speech prediction, Cuperman & Gersho (1985) describe the Switched Inter-frame Vector Prediction (SIVP) method which switches between separate linear predictors trained on different statistical classes of speech.

If data collection is costly, there is much to be gained by actively selecting particularly informative data points in a sequential way. In a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework we develop a query selection criterion which explicitly takes into account the intended use of the model predictions. By Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods the necessary quantities can be approximated to a desired precision. As the number of data points grows, the model complexity is modified by a Bayesian model selection strategy. The properties of two versions of the criterion ate demonstrated in numerical experiments.

Increasing attention has been paid to reinforcement learning algorithms in recent years, partly due to successes in the theoretical analysis of their behavior in Markov environments. If the Markov assumption is removed, however, neither generally the algorithms nor the analyses continue to be usable. We propose and analyze a new learning algorithm to solve a certain class of non-Markov decision problems. Our algorithm applies to problems in which the environment is Markov, but the learner has restricted access to state information. The algorithm involves a Monte-Carlo policy evaluation combined with a policy improvement method that is similar to that of Markov decision problems and is guaranteed to converge to a local maximum. The algorithm operates in the space of stochastic policies, a space which can yield a policy that performs considerably better than any deterministic policy. Although the space of stochastic policies is continuous-even for a discrete action space-our algorithm is computationally tractable.

Using a statistical mechanical formalism we calculate the evidence, generalisation error and consistency measure for a linear perceptron trained and tested on a set of examples generated by a non linear teacher. The teacher is said to be unrealisable because the student can never model it without error. Our model allows us to interpolate between the known case of a linear teacher, and an unrealisable, nonlinear teacher. A comparison of the hyperparameters which maximise the evidence with those that optimise the performance measures reveals that, in the nonlinear case, the evidence procedure is a misleading guide to optimising performance. Finally, we explore the extent to which the evidence procedure is unreliable and find that, despite being sub-optimal, in some circumstances it might be a useful method for fixing the hyperparameters. 1 INTRODUCTION The analysis of supervised learning or learning from examples is a major field of research within neural networks.

A new model for chemosensory reception is presented.

Reinforcement learning addresses the problem of learning to select actions in order to maximize one's performance in unknown environments. To scale reinforcement learning to complex real-world tasks, such as typically studied in AI, one must ultimately be able to discover the structure in the world, in order to abstract away the myriad of details and to operate in more tractable problem spaces. This paper presents the SKILLS algorithm. SKILLS discovers skills, which are partially defined action policies that arise in the context of multiple, related tasks.

This paper presents results from the first use of neural networks for the real-time feedback control of high temperature plasmas in a tokamak fusion experiment. The tokamak is currently the principal experimental device for research into the magnetic confinement approach to controlled fusion. In the tokamak, hydrogen plasmas, at temperatures of up to 100 Million K, are confined by strong magnetic fields. Accurate control of the position and shape of the plasma boundary requires real-time feedback control of the magnetic field structure on a timescale of a few tens of microseconds. Software simulations have demonstrated that a neural network approach can give significantly better performance than the linear technique currently used on most tokamak experiments. The practical application of the neural network approach requires high-speed hardware, for which a fully parallel implementation of the multilayer perceptron, using a hybrid of digital and analogue technology, has been developed.

The paper presents a rapid speaker-normalization technique based on neural network spectral mapping. The neural network is used as a front-end of a continuous speech recognition system (speakerdependent, HMM-based) to normalize the input acoustic data from a new speaker. The spectral difference between speakers can be reduced using a limited amount of new acoustic data (40 phonetically rich sentences). Recognition error of phone units from the acoustic-phonetic continuous speech corpus APASCI is decreased with an adaptability ratio of 25%. We used local basis networks of elliptical Gaussian kernels, with recursive allocation of units and online optimization of parameters (GRAN model). For this application, the model included a linear term. The results compare favorably with multivariate linear mapping based on constrained orthonormal transformations.

It is well known that a combination of many different predictors can improve predictions. In the neural networks community "ensembles" of neural networks has been investigated by several authors, see for instance [1, 2, 3]. Most often the networks in the ensemble are trained individually and then their predictions are combined. This combination is usually done by majority (in classification) or by simple averaging (in regression), but one can also use a weighted combination of the networks.

Semi-Markov Decision Problems are continuous time generalizations of discrete time Markov Decision Problems. A number of reinforcement learning algorithms have been developed recently for the solution of Markov Decision Problems, based on the ideas of asynchronous dynamic programming and stochastic approximation. Among these are TD(,x), Q-Iearning, and Real-time Dynamic Programming. After reviewing semi-Markov Decision Problems and Bellman's optimality equation in that context, we propose algorithms similar to those named above, adapted to the solution of semi-Markov Decision Problems. We demonstrate these algorithms by applying them to the problem of determining the optimal control for a simple queueing system. We conclude with a discussion of circumstances under which these algorithms may be usefully applied.