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Multiset Estimates and Combinatorial Synthesis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The paper addresses an approach to ordinal assessment of alternatives based on assignment of elements into an ordinal scale. Basic versions of the assessment problems are formulated while taking into account the number of levels at a basic ordinal scale [1,2,...,l] and the number of assigned elements (e.g., 1,2,3). The obtained estimates are multisets (or bags) (cardinality of the multiset equals a constant). Scale-posets for the examined assessment problems are presented. "Interval multiset estimates" are suggested. Further, operations over multiset estimates are examined: (a) integration of multiset estimates, (b) proximity for multiset estimates, (c) comparison of multiset estimates, (d) aggregation of multiset estimates, and (e) alignment of multiset estimates. Combinatorial synthesis based on morphological approach is examined including the modified version of the approach with multiset estimates of design alternatives. Knapsack-like problems with multiset estimates are briefly described as well. The assessment approach, multiset-estimates, and corresponding combinatorial problems are illustrated by numerical examples.


Complexity Analysis and Variational Inference for Interpretation-based Probabilistic Description Logic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents complexity analysis and variational methods for inference in probabilistic description logics featuring Boolean operators, quantification, qualified number restrictions, nominals, inverse roles and role hierarchies. Inference is shown to be PEXP-complete, and variational methods are designed so as to exploit logical inference whenever possible.


The Temporal Logic of Causal Structures

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Computational analysis of time-course data with an underlying causal structure is needed in a variety of domains, including neural spike trains, stock price movements, and gene expression levels. However, it can be challenging to determine from just the numerical time course data alone what is coordinating the visible processes, to separate the underlying prima facie causes into genuine and spurious causes and to do so with a feasible computational complexity. For this purpose, we have been developing a novel algorithm based on a framework that combines notions of causality in philosophy with algorithmic approaches built on model checking and statistical techniques for multiple hypotheses testing. The causal relationships are described in terms of temporal logic formulae, reframing the inference problem in terms of model checking. The logic used, PCTL, allows description of both the time between cause and effect and the probability of this relationship being observed. We show that equipped with these causal formulae with their associated probabilities we may compute the average impact a cause makes to its effect and then discover statistically significant causes through the concepts of multiple hypothesis testing (treating each causal relationship as a hypothesis), and false discovery control. By exploring a well-chosen family of potentially all significant hypotheses with reasonably minimal description length, it is possible to tame the algorithm's computational complexity while exploring the nearly complete search-space of all prima facie causes. We have tested these ideas in a number of domains and illustrate them here with two examples.


Exact Structure Discovery in Bayesian Networks with Less Space

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The fastest known exact algorithms for scorebased structure discovery in Bayesian networks on n nodes run in time and space 2nnO(1). The usage of these algorithms is limited to networks on at most around 25 nodes mainly due to the space requirement. Here, we study space-time tradeoffs for finding an optimal network structure. When little space is available, we apply the Gurevich-Shelah recurrence-originally proposed for the Hamiltonian path problem-and obtain time 22n-snO(1) in space 2snO(1) for any s = n/2, n/4, n/8, . . .; we assume the indegree of each node is bounded by a constant. For the more practical setting with moderate amounts of space, we present a novel scheme. It yields running time 2n(3/2)pnO(1) in space 2n(3/4)pnO(1) for any p = 0, 1, . . ., n/2; these bounds hold as long as the indegrees are at most 0.238n. Furthermore, the latter scheme allows easy and efficient parallelization beyond previous algorithms. We also explore empirically the potential of the presented techniques.


Measuring Inconsistency in Probabilistic Knowledge Bases

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper develops an inconsistency measure on conditional probabilistic knowledge bases. The measure is based on fundamental principles for inconsistency measures and thus provides a solid theoretical framework for the treatment of inconsistencies in probabilistic expert systems. We illustrate its usefulness and immediate application on several examples and present some formal results. Building on this measure we use the Shapley value--a well-known solution for coalition games--to define a sophisticated indicator that is not only able to measure inconsistencies but to reveal the causes of inconsistencies in the knowledge base. Altogether these tools guide the knowledge engineer in his aim to restore consistency and therefore enable him to build a consistent and usable knowledge base that can be employed in probabilistic expert systems.


Publishing and linking transport data on the Web

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Without Linked Data, transport data is limited to applications exclusively around transport. In this paper, we present a workflow for publishing and linking transport data on the Web. So we will be able to develop transport applications and to add other features which will be created from other datasets. This will be possible because transport data will be linked to these datasets. We apply this workflow to two datasets: NEPTUNE, a French standard describing a transport line, and Passim, a directory containing relevant information on transport services, in every French city.


Convex Relaxation for Combinatorial Penalties

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we propose an unifying view of several recently proposed structured sparsity-inducing norms. We consider the situation of a model simultaneously (a) penalized by a set- function de ned on the support of the unknown parameter vector which represents prior knowledge on supports, and (b) regularized in Lp-norm. We show that the natural combinatorial optimization problems obtained may be relaxed into convex optimization problems and introduce a notion, the lower combinatorial envelope of a set-function, that characterizes the tightness of our relaxations. We moreover establish links with norms based on latent representations including the latent group Lasso and block-coding, and with norms obtained from submodular functions.


Learning to Win by Reading Manuals in a Monte-Carlo Framework

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Domain knowledge is crucial for effective performance in autonomous control systems. Typically, human effort is required to encode this knowledge into a control algorithm. In this paper, we present an approach to language grounding which automatically interprets text in the context of a complex control application, such as a game, and uses domain knowledge extracted from the text to improve control performance. Both text analysis and control strategies are learned jointly using only a feedback signal inherent to the application. To effectively leverage textual information, our method automatically extracts the text segment most relevant to the current game state, and labels it with a task-centric predicate structure. This labeled text is then used to bias an action selection policy for the game, guiding it towards promising regions of the action space. We encode our model for text analysis and game playing in a multi-layer neural network, representing linguistic decisions via latent variables in the hidden layers, and game action quality via the output layer. Operating within the Monte-Carlo Search framework, we estimate model parameters using feedback from simulated games. We apply our approach to the complex strategy game Civilization II using the official game manual as the text guide. Our results show that a linguistically-informed game-playing agent significantly outperforms its language-unaware counterpart, yielding a 34% absolute improvement and winning over 65% of games when playing against the built-in AI of Civilization.


Dissimilarity Clustering by Hierarchical Multi-Level Refinement

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce in this paper a new way of optimizing the natural extension of the quantization error using in k-means clustering to dissimilarity data. The proposed method is based on hierarchical clustering analysis combined with multilevel heuristic refinement. The method is computationally efficient and achieves better quantization errors than the relational k-means.


A Market-Inspired Approach for Intersection Management in Urban Road Traffic Networks

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Traffic congestion in urban road networks is a costly problem that affects all major cities in developed countries. To tackle this problem, it is possible (i) to act on the supply side, increasing the number of roads or lanes in a network, (ii) to reduce the demand, restricting the access to urban areas at specific hours or to specific vehicles, or (iii) to improve the efficiency of the existing network, by means of a widespread use of so-called Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). In line with the recent advances in smart transportation management infrastructures, ITS has turned out to be a promising field of application for artificial intelligence techniques. In particular, multiagent systems seem to be the ideal candidates for the design and implementation of ITS. In fact, drivers can be naturally modelled as autonomous agents that interact with the transportation management infrastructure, thereby generating a large-scale, open, agent-based system. To regulate such a system and maintain a smooth and efficient flow of traffic, decentralised mechanisms for the management of the transportation infrastructure are needed. In this article we propose a distributed, market-inspired, mechanism for the management of a future urban road network, where intelligent autonomous vehicles, operated by software agents on behalf of their human owners, interact with the infrastructure in order to travel safely and efficiently through the road network. Building on the reservation-based intersection control model proposed by Dresner and Stone, we consider two different scenarios: one with a single intersection and one with a network of intersections. In the former, we analyse the performance of a novel policy based on combinatorial auctions for the allocation of reservations. In the latter, we analyse the impact that a traffic assignment strategy inspired by competitive markets has on the drivers' route choices. Finally we propose an adaptive management mechanism that integrates the auction-based traffic control policy with the competitive traffic assignment strategy.