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The Observer-Observation Dilemma in Neuro-Forecasting

Neural Information Processing Systems

We explain how the training data can be separated into clean information and unexplainable noise. Analogous to the data, the neural network is separated into a time invariant structure used for forecasting, and a noisy part. We propose a unified theory connecting the optimization algorithms for cleaning and learning together with algorithms that control the data noise and the parameter noise. The combined algorithm allows a data-driven local control of the liability of the network parameters and therefore an improvement in generalization. The approach is proven to be very useful at the task of forecasting the German bond market.


A Simple and Fast Neural Network Approach to Stereovision

Neural Information Processing Systems

A neural network approach to stereovision is presented based on aliasing effects of simple disparity estimators and a fast coherencedetection scheme. Within a single network structure, a dense disparity map with an associated validation map and, additionally, the fused cyclopean view of the scene are available. The network operations are based on simple, biological plausible circuitry; the algorithm is fully parallel and non-iterative.


An Incremental Nearest Neighbor Algorithm with Queries

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the general problem of learning multi-category classification from labeled examples. We present experimental results for a nearest neighbor algorithm which actively selects samples from different pattern classes according to a querying rule instead of the a priori class probabilities. The amount of improvement of this query-based approach over the passive batch approach depends on the complexity of the Bayes rule. The principle on which this algorithm is based is general enough to be used in any learning algorithm which permits a model-selection criterion and for which the error rate of the classifier is calculable in terms of the complexity of the model. 1 INTRODUCTION We consider the general problem of learning multi-category classification from labeled examples. In many practical learning settings the time or sample size available for training are limited. This may have adverse effects on the accuracy of the resulting classifier. For instance, in learning to recognize handwritten characters typical time limitation confines the training sample size to be of the order of a few hundred examples. It is important to make learning more efficient by obtaining only training data which contains significant information about the separability of the pattern classes thereby letting the learning algorithm participate actively in the sampling process. Querying for the class labels of specificly selected examples in the input space may lead to significant improvements in the generalization error (cf.



Boltzmann Machine Learning Using Mean Field Theory and Linear Response Correction

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a new approximate learning algorithm for Boltzmann Machines, using a systematic expansion of the Gibbs free energy to second order in the weights. The linear response correction to the correlations is given by the Hessian of the Gibbs free energy. The computational complexity of the algorithm is cubic in the number of neurons. We compare the performance of the exact BM learning algorithm with first order (Weiss) mean field theory and second order (TAP) mean field theory. The learning task consists of a fully connected Ising spin glass model on 10 neurons. We conclude that 1) the method works well for paramagnetic problems 2) the TAP correction gives a significant improvement over the Weiss mean field theory, both for paramagnetic and spin glass problems and 3) that the inclusion of diagonal weights improves the Weiss approximation for paramagnetic problems, but not for spin glass problems.


Hippocampal Model of Rat Spatial Abilities Using Temporal Difference Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We provide a model of the standard watermaze task, and of a more challenging task involving novel platform locations, in which rats exhibit one-trial learning after a few days of training. The model uses hippocampal place cells to support reinforcement learning, and also, in an integrated manner, to build and use allocentric coordinates. 1 INTRODUCTION


Regression with Input-dependent Noise: A Gaussian Process Treatment

Neural Information Processing Systems

Gaussian processes provide natural nonparametric prior distributions over regression functions. In this paper we consider regression problems where there is noise on the output, and the variance of the noise depends on the inputs. If we assume that the noise is a smooth function of the inputs, then it is natural to model the noise variance using a second Gaussian process, in addition to the Gaussian process governing the noise-free output value. We show that prior uncertainty about the parameters controlling both processes can be handled and that the posterior distribution of the noise rate can be sampled from using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Our results on a synthetic data set give a posterior noise variance that well-approximates the true variance.


Modelling Seasonality and Trends in Daily Rainfall Data

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper presents a new approach to the problem of modelling daily rainfall using neural networks. We first model the conditional distributions of rainfall amounts, in such a way that the model itself determines the order of the process, and the time-dependent shape and scale of the conditional distributions. After integrating over particular weather patterns, we are able to extract seasonal variations and long-term trends. 1 Introduction Analysis of rainfall data is important for many agricultural, ecological and engineering activities. Design of irrigation and drainage systems, for instance, needs to take account not only of mean expected rainfall, but also of rainfall volatility. Estimates of crop yields also depend on the distribution of rainfall during the growing season, as well as on the overall amount.


MELONET I: Neural Nets for Inventing Baroque-Style Chorale Variations

Neural Information Processing Systems

The investigation of neural information structures in music is a rather new, exciting research area bringing together different disciplines such as computer science, mathematics, musicology and cognitive science. One of its aims is to find out what determines the personal style of a composer. It has been shown that neural network models - better than other AI approaches - are able to learn and reproduce styledependent features from given examples, e.g., chorale harmonizations in the style of Johann Sebastian Bach (Hild et al., 1992). However when dealing with melodic sequences, e.g., folksong style melodies, all of these models have considerable difficulties to learn even simple structures. The reason is that they are unable to capture high-order structure such as harmonies, motifs and phrases simultaneously occurring at multiple time scales.