Fraud causes substantial losses to telecommunication carriers. Detection systems which automatically detect illegal use of the network can be used to alleviate the problem. Previous approaches worked on features derived from the call patterns of individual users. In this paper we present a call-based detection system based on a hierarchical regime-switching model. The detection problem is formulated as an inference problem on the regime probabilities.

We solve the dynamics of Hopfield-type neural networks which store sequences of patterns, close to saturation. The asymmetry of the interaction matrix in such models leads to violation of detailed balance, ruling out an equilibrium statistical mechanical analysis. Using generating functional methods we derive exact closed equations for dynamical order parameters, viz. the sequence overlap and correlation and response functions.

For example, a'Hebbian' (Hebb 1949) learning rule which is driven by the correlations between presynaptic and postsynaptic rates may be used to generate neuronal receptive fields (e.g., Linsker 1986, MacKay and Miller 1990, Wimbauer et al. 1997) with properties similar to those of real neurons. A rate-based description, however, neglects effects which are due to the pulse structure of neuronal signals.

The difficulties lie in the Monte-Carlo E-step which consists of sampling from the posterior distribution of the hidden variables given the observations. The new idea presented in this paper is to generate samples from a Gaussian approximation to the true posterior from which it is easy to obtain independent samples. The parameters of the Gaussian approximation are either derived from the extended Kalman filter or the Fisher scoring algorithm. In case the posterior density is multimodal we propose to approximate the posterior by a sum of Gaussians (mixture of modes approach). We show that sampling from the approximate posterior densities obtained by the above algorithms leads to better models than using point estimates for the hidden states. In our experiment, the Fisher scoring algorithm obtained a better approximation of the posterior mode than the EKF. For a multimodal distribution, the mixture of modes approach gave superior results. 1 INTRODUCTION Nonlinear state space models (NSSM) are a general framework for representing nonlinear time series. In particular, any NARMAX model (nonlinear auto-regressive moving average model with external inputs) can be translated into an equivalent NSSM.

We introduce a novel framework for simultaneous structure and parameter learning in hidden-variable conditional probability models, based on an en tropic prior and a solution for its maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator. The MAP estimate minimizes uncertainty in all respects: cross-entropy between model and data; entropy of the model; entropy of the data's descriptive statistics. Iterative estimation extinguishes weakly supported parameters, compressing and sparsifying the model. Trimming operators accelerate this process by removing excess parameters and, unlike most pruning schemes, guarantee an increase in posterior probability. Entropic estimation takes a overcomplete random model and simplifies it, inducing the structure of relations between hidden and observed variables. Applied to hidden Markov models (HMMs), it finds a concise finite-state machine representing the hidden structure of a signal. We entropically model music, handwriting, and video time-series, and show that the resulting models are highly concise, structured, predictive, and interpretable: Surviving states tend to be highly correlated with meaningful partitions of the data, while surviving transitions provide a low-perplexity model of the signal dynamics.

This paper applies the Mixture of Gaussians probabilistic model, combined with Expectation Maximization optimization to the task of summarizing three dimensional range data for a mobile robot. This provides a flexible way of dealing with uncertainties in sensor information, and allows the introduction of prior knowledge into low-level perception modules. Problems with the basic approach were solved in several ways: the mixture of Gaussians was reparameterized to reflect the types of objects expected in the scene, and priors on model parameters were included in the optimization process. Both approaches force the optimization to find'interesting' objects, given the sensor and object characteristics. A higher level classifier was used to interpret the results provided by the model, and to reject spurious solutions.

In this paper we present a novel approach to multichannel blind separation/generalized deconvolution, assuming that both mixing and demixing models are described by stable linear state-space systems. Based on the minimization of Kullback-Leibler Divergence, we develop a novel learning algorithm to train the matrices in the output equation. To estimate the state of the demixing model, we introduce a new concept, called hidden innovation, to numerically implement the Kalman filter. Computer simulations are given to show the validity and high effectiveness of the state-space approach. The blind source separation problem is to recover independent sources from sensor outputs without assuming any priori knowledge of the original signals besides certain statistic features.

Two developments of nonlinear latent variable models based on radial basis functions are discussed: in the first, the use of priors or constraints on allowable models is considered as a means of preserving data structure in low-dimensional representations for visualisation purposes. Also, a resampling approach is introduced which makes more effective use of the latent samples in evaluating the likelihood.

Using a recurrent neural network of excitatory spiking neurons with adapting synapses we show that both effects could be explained by a fast and a slow component in the synaptic adaptation.

A circuit for fast, compact and low-power focal-plane motion centroid localization is presented. This chip, which uses mixed signal CMOS components to implement photodetection, edge detection, ONset detection and centroid localization, models the retina and superior colliculus. The centroid localization circuit uses time-windowed asynchronously triggered row and column address events and two linear resistive grids to provide the analog coordinates of the motion centroid. This VLSI chip is used to realize fast lightweight autonavigating vehicles. The obstacle avoiding line-following algorithm is discussed.