Europe
Between Instruction and Reward: Human-Prompted Switching
Pilarski, Patrick M. (University of Alberta) | Sutton, Richard S. (University of Alberta)
Intelligent systems promise to amplify, augment, and extend innate human abilities. A principal example is that of assistive rehabilitation robots---artificial intelligence and machine learning enable new electromechanical systems that restore biological functions lost through injury or illness. In order for an intelligent machine to assist a human user, it must be possible for a human to communicate their intentions and preferences to their non-human counterpart. While there are a number of techniques that a human can use to direct a machine learning system, most research to date has focused on the contrasting strategies of instruction and reward. The primary contribution of our work is to demonstrate that the middle ground between instruction and reward is a fertile space for research and immediate technological progress. To support this idea, we introduce the setting of human-prompted switching, and illustrate the successful combination of switching with interactive learning using a concrete real-world example: human control of a multi-joint robot arm. We believe techniques that fall between the domains of instruction and reward are complementary to existing approaches, and will open up new lines of rapid progress for interactive human training of machine learning systems.
Training Wheels for the Robot: Learning from Demonstration Using Simulation
Koenig, Nathan (Open Source Robotics Foundation) | Mataric' (University of Southern California) | , Maja
Learning from demonstration (LfD) is a promising technique for instructing/teaching autonomous systems based on demonstrations from people who may have little to no experience with robots. An important aspect to LfD is the communication method used to transfer knowledge from an instructor to a robot. The communication method affects the complexity of the demonstration process for instructors, the range of tasks a robot can learn, and the learning algorithm itself. We have designed a graphical interface and an instructional language to provide an intuitive teaching system. The drawback to simplifying the teaching interface is that the resulting demonstration data are less structured, adding complexity to the learning process. This additional complexity is handled through the combination of a minimal set of predefined behaviors and a task representation capable of learning probabilistic policies over a set of behaviors. The predefined behaviors consist of finite actions a robot can perform, which act as building blocks for more complex tasks.
Using Spatial Language to Guide and Instruct Robots in Household Environments
Fasola, Juan (University of Southern California) | Mataric, Maja (University of Southern California)
We present an approach for enabling in-home service robots to follow natural language commands from non-expert users, with a particular focus on spatial language understanding. Specifically, we propose an extension to the semantic field model of spatial prepositions that enables the representation of dynamic spatial relations involving paths. The relevance of the proposed methodology to interactive robot learning is discussed, and the paper concludes with a description of how we plan to integrate and evaluate our proposed model with end-users.
Estimating Diversity among Forecaster Models
Parunak, H. Van Dyke (Jacobs Technology Group) | Downs, Elizabeth (Jacobs Technology Group)
There is strong theoretical evidence that aggregation of human judgments should not simply average multiple forecasts together (the unweighted linear opinion pool, or ULinOP), but weight them in such a way as to insure representation of a maximally diverse set of models among the experts from whom they are elicited. Explicitly eliciting these models places a major burden on the experts. We report on a variety of approaches to estimating these models, or at least the diversity among them, with minimal explicit input from the experts.
Cluster-Weighted Aggregation
Parunak, H. Van Dyke (Jacobs Technology Group)
We are interested in aggregating forecasts of multinomial problems elicited from multiple experts. A common approach is to assign a weight to each expert, then form a weighted sum over their forecasts. Theoretical studies suggest that an important factor in such weighting is the diversity among experts. However, diversity is intrinsically a pairwise measure over experts, and does not lend itself naturally to a single weight that can be applied to an expert’s forecast in a weighted average. We suggest a way to take advantage of such pairwise measures in aggregating forecasts.
The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions
Ungar, Lyle (University of Pennsylvania) | Mellers, Barbara (University of Pennsylvania) | Satopää, Ville (University of Pennsylvania) | Tetlock, Philip (University of Pennsylvania) | Baron, Jon (University of Pennsylvania)
Many methods have been proposed for making use of multiple experts to predict uncertain events such as election outcomes, ranging from simple averaging of individual predictions to complex collaborative structures such as prediction markets or structured group decision making processes. We used a panel of more than 2,000 forecasters to systematically compare the performance of four different collaborative processes on a battery of political prediction problems. We found that teams and prediction markets systematically outperformed averages of individual forecasters, that training forecasters helps, and that the exact form of how predictions are combined has a large effect on overall prediction accuracy.
Improving Forecasting Accuracy Using Bayesian Network Decomposition in Prediction Markets
Berea, Anamaria (George Mason University) | Maxwell, Daniel (George Mason University) | Twardy, Charles (George Mason University)
We propose to improve the accuracy of prediction market forecasts by using Bayesian networks to constrain probabilities among related questions. Prediction markets are already known to increase forecast accuracy compared to single best estimates. Our own flat prediction market substantially beat a baseline linear opinion pool during the first year. One way to improve performance is by expressing relationships among the questions. Elsewhere we describe work on combinatorial markets. Here we show how to use Bayesian networks within a flat market. The general approach is to decompose a target question (hypothesis) into a set of related variables (causal factors and evidence), when the relationship among the variables is known with some confidence. Then the marginal probabilities for the variables in the Bayes net are updated using the market estimates, with the Bayes net enforcing coherence. This paper describes the overall concept, shows the results for a particular model of the potential Greek exit from the European Union, and describes the team’s future research plan.
BioASQ: A Challenge on Large-Scale Biomedical Semantic Indexing and Question Answering
Tsatsaronis, George (Technische Universität Dresden) | Schroeder, Michael (Technische Universität Dresden) | Paliouras, Georgios (NCSR Demokritos, Athens) | Almirantis, Yannis (NCSR Demokritos, Athens) | Androutsopoulos, Ion (Athens University of Economics and Business) | Gaussier, Eric (Université Joseph Fourier) | Gallinari, Patrick (Université Pierre et Marie Curie LIP6) | Artieres, Thierry (Université Pierre et Marie Curie LIP6) | Alvers, Michael R. (Transinsight GmbH) | Zschunke, Matthias (Transinsight GmbH) | Ngomo, Axel-Cyrille Ngonga (University of Leipzig)
This article provides an overview of BioASQ, a new competition on biomedical semantic indexing and question answering (QA). BioASQ aims to push towards systems that will allow biomedical workers to express their information needs in natural language and that will return concise and user-understandable answers by combining information from multiple sources of different kinds, including biomedical articles, databases, and ontologies. BioASQ encourages participants to adopt semantic indexing as a means to combine multiple information sources and to facilitate the matching of questions to answers. It also adopts a broad semantic indexing and QA architecture that subsumes current relevant approaches, even though no current system instantiates all of its components. Hence, the architecture can also be seen as our view of how relevant work from fields such as information retrieval, hierarchical classification, question answering, ontologies, and linked data can be combined, extended, and applied to biomedical question answering. BioASQ will develop publicly available benchmarks and it will adopt and possibly refine existing evaluation measures. The evaluation infrastructure of the competition will remain publicly available beyond the end of BioASQ.
Towards Semantic Literature Based Discovery
Preiss, Judita (University of Sheffield) | Stevenson, Mark (University of Sheffield) | McClure, M. Heidi (University of Sheffield and Intelligent Software Solutions, Inc)
Previous systems for literature based discovery, an automatic method of identifying hidden knowledge, have largely been based on bag of words approaches which perform only limited semantic analysis and interpretation. We describe the shortcomings of these approaches and suggest possible solutions that make use of techniques from Natural Language Processing.