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Practical Uses of Belief Functions
We present examples where the use of belief functions provided sound and elegant solutions to real life problems. These are essentially characterized by ?missing' information. The examples deal with 1) discriminant analysis using a learning set where classes are only partially known; 2) an information retrieval systems handling inter-documents relationships; 3) the combination of data from sensors competent on partially overlapping frames; 4) the determination of the number of sources in a multi-sensor environment by studying the inter-sensors contradiction. The purpose of the paper is to report on such applications where the use of belief functions provides a convenient tool to handle ?messy' data problems.
Welldefined Decision Scenarios
Nielsen, Thomas D., Jensen, Finn Verner
Influence diagrams serve as a powerful tool for modelling symmetric decision problems. When solving an influence diagram we determine a set of strategies for the decisions involved. A strategy for a decision variable is in principle a function over its past. However, some of the past may be irrelevant for the decision, and for computational reasons it is important not to deal with redundant variables in the strategies. We show that current methods (e.g. the "Decision Bayes-ball" algorithm by Shachter UAI98) do not determine the relevant past, and we present a complete algorithm. Actually, this paper takes a more general outset: When formulating a decision scenario as an influence diagram, a linear temporal ordering of the decisions variables is required. This constraint ensures that the decision scenario is welldefined. However, the structure of a decision scenario often yields certain decisions conditionally independent, and it is therefore unnecessary to impose a linear temporal ordering on the decisions. In this paper we deal with partial influence diagrams i.e. influence diagrams with only a partial temporal ordering specified. We present a set of conditions which are necessary and sufficient to ensure that a partial influence diagram is welldefined. These conditions are used as a basis for the construction of an algorithm for determining whether or not a partial influence diagram is welldefined.
Multi-objects association in perception of dynamical situation
Gruyer, Dominique, Berge-Cherfaoui, Veronique
In current perception systems applied to the rebuilding of the environment for intelligent vehicles, the part reserved to object association for the tracking is increasingly significant. This allows firstly to follow the objects temporal evolution and secondly to increase the reliability of environment perception. We propose in this communication the development of a multi-objects association algorithm with ambiguity removal entering into the design of such a dynamic perception system for intelligent vehicles. This algorithm uses the belief theory and data modelling with fuzzy mathematics in order to be able to handle inaccurate as well as uncertain information due to imperfect sensors. These theories also allow the fusion of numerical as well as symbolic data. We develop in this article the problem of matching between known and perceived objects. This makes it possible to update a dynamic environment map for a vehicle. The belief theory will enable us to quantify the belief in the association of each perceived object with each known object. Conflicts can appear in the case of object appearance or disappearance, or in the case of a confused situation or bad perception. These conflicts are removed or solved using an assignment algorithm, giving a solution called the " best " and so ensuring the tracking of some objects present in our environment.
Qualitative Models for Decision Under Uncertainty without the Commensurability Assumption
Fargier, Helene, Perny, Patrice
This paper investigates a purely qualitative version of Savage's theory for decision making under uncertainty. Until now, most representation theorems for preference over acts rely on a numerical representation of utility and uncertainty where utility and uncertainty are commensurate. Disrupting the tradition, we relax this assumption and introduce a purely ordinal axiom requiring that the Decision Maker (DM) preference between two acts only depends on the relative position of their consequences for each state. Within this qualitative framework, we determine the only possible form of the decision rule and investigate some instances compatible with the transitivity of the strict preference. Finally we propose a mild relaxation of our ordinality axiom, leaving room for a new family of qualitative decision rules compatible with transitivity.
Assessing the value of a candidate. Comparing belief function and possibility theories
Dubois, Didier, Grabisch, Michel, Prade, Henri, Smets, Philippe
Thomson-CSF, Corporate Research Laboratory Domaine de Corbeville 91404 Orsay, France The problem of assessing the value of a candidate is viewed here as a multiple combination problem. On the one hand a candidate can be evaluated according to different criteria, and on the other hand several experts are supposed to assess the value of candidates according to each criterion. Criteria are not equally important, experts are not equally competent or reliable. Moreover levels of satisfaction of criteria, or levels of confidence are only assumed to take their values in linearly ordered scales, whose nature is often qualitative. The problem is discussed within two frameworks, the transferable belief model and the qualitative possibility theory. They respectively offer a quantitative and a qualitative setting for handling the problem, providing thus a way to compare the nature of the underlying assumptions.
Hybrid Probabilistic Programs: Algorithms and Complexity
Dekhtyar, Michael I., Dekhtyar, Alex, Subrahmanian, V. S.
Hybrid Probabilistic Programs (HPPs) are logic programs that allow the programmer to explicitly encode his knowledge of the dependencies between events being described in the program. In this paper, we classify HPPs into three classes called HPP_1,HPP_2 and HPP_r,r>= 3. For these classes, we provide three types of results for HPPs. First, we develop algorithms to compute the set of all ground consequences of an HPP. Then we provide algorithms and complexity results for the problems of entailment ("Given an HPP P and a query Q as input, is Q a logical consequence of P?") and consistency ("Given an HPP P as input, is P consistent?"). Our results provide a fine characterization of when polynomial algorithms exist for the above problems, and when these problems become intractable.
Artificial Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Intelligent Buildings
Boman, Magnus, Davidsson, Paul, Younes, Hakan L.
Our hypothesis is that by equipping certain agents in a multi-agent system controlling an intelligent building with automated decision support, two important factors will be increased. The first is energy saving in the building. The second is customer value---how the people in the building experience the effects of the actions of the agents. We give evidence for the truth of this hypothesis through experimental findings related to tools for artificial decision making. A number of assumptions related to agent control, through monitoring and delegation of tasks to other kinds of agents, of rooms at a test site are relaxed. Each assumption controls at least one uncertainty that complicates considerably the procedures for selecting actions part of each such agent. We show that in realistic decision situations, room-controlling agents can make bounded rational decisions even under dynamic real-time constraints. This result can be, and has been, generalized to other domains with even harsher time constraints.
Possibilistic logic bases and possibilistic graphs
Benferhat, Salem, Dubois, Didier, Garcia, Laurent, Prade, Henri
Possibilistic logic bases and possibilistic graphs are two different frameworks of interest for representing knowledge. The former stratifies the pieces of knowledge (expressed by logical formulas) according to their level of certainty, while the latter exhibits relationships between variables. The two types of representations are semantically equivalent when they lead to the same possibility distribution (which rank-orders the possible interpretations). A possibility distribution can be decomposed using a chain rule which may be based on two different kinds of conditioning which exist in possibility theory (one based on product in a numerical setting, one based on minimum operation in a qualitative setting). These two types of conditioning induce two kinds of possibilistic graphs. In both cases, a translation of these graphs into possibilistic bases is provided. The converse translation from a possibilistic knowledge base into a min-based graph is also described.
Active Learning on Trees and Graphs
Cesa-Bianchi, Nicolo, Gentile, Claudio, Vitale, Fabio, Zappella, Giovanni
We investigate the problem of active learning on a given tree whose nodes are assigned binary labels in an adversarial way. Inspired by recent results by Guillory and Bilmes, we characterize (up to constant factors) the optimal placement of queries so to minimize the mistakes made on the non-queried nodes. Our query selection algorithm is extremely efficient, and the optimal number of mistakes on the non-queried nodes is achieved by a simple and efficient mincut classifier. Through a simple modification of the query selection algorithm we also show optimality (up to constant factors) with respect to the trade-off between number of queries and number of mistakes on non-queried nodes. By using spanning trees, our algorithms can be efficiently applied to general graphs, although the problem of finding optimal and efficient active learning algorithms for general graphs remains open. Towards this end, we provide a lower bound on the number of mistakes made on arbitrary graphs by any active learning algorithm using a number of queries which is up to a constant fraction of the graph size.
Verification of Agent-Based Artifact Systems
Belardinelli, Francesco, Lomuscio, Alessio, Patrizi, Fabio
Artifact systems are a novel paradigm for specifying and implementing business processes described in terms of interacting modules called artifacts. Artifacts consist of data and lifecycles, accounting respectively for the relational structure of the artifacts' states and their possible evolutions over time. In this paper we put forward artifact-centric multi-agent systems, a novel formalisation of artifact systems in the context of multi-agent systems operating on them. Differently from the usual process-based models of services, the semantics we give explicitly accounts for the data structures on which artifact systems are defined. We study the model checking problem for artifact-centric multi-agent systems against specifications written in a quantified version of temporal-epistemic logic expressing the knowledge of the agents in the exchange. We begin by noting that the problem is undecidable in general. We then identify two noteworthy restrictions, one syntactical and one semantical, that enable us to find bisimilar finite abstractions and therefore reduce the model checking problem to the instance on finite models. Under these assumptions we show that the model checking problem for these systems is EXPSPACE-complete. We then introduce artifact-centric programs, compact and declarative representations of the programs governing both the artifact system and the agents. We show that, while these in principle generate infinite-state systems, under natural conditions their verification problem can be solved on finite abstractions that can be effectively computed from the programs. Finally we exemplify the theoretical results of the paper through a mainstream procurement scenario from the artifact systems literature.