A submarine's sonar team is responsible for detecting, localising and classifying targets using information provided by the platform's sensor suite. The information used to make these assessments is typically uncertain and/or incomplete and is likely to require a measure of confidence in its reliability. Moreover, improvements in sensor and communication technology are resulting in increased amounts of on-platform and off-platform information available for evaluation. This proliferation of imprecise information increases the risk of overwhelming the operator. To assist the task of localisation and classification a concept demonstration decision aid (Horizon), based on evidential reasoning, has been developed. Horizon is an information fusion software package for representing and fusing imprecise information about the state of the world, expressed across suitable frames of reference. The Horizon software is currently at prototype stage.

In this paper we present some results obtained with a troupe of low-cost robots designed to cooperatively explore and adquire the map of unknown structured orthogonal environments. In order to improve the covering of the explored zone, the robots show different behaviours and cooperate by transferring each other the perceived environment when they meet. The returning robots deliver to a host computer their partial maps and the host incrementally generates the map of the environment by means of apossibility/ necessity grid.

The efficiency of inference in both the Hugin and, most notably, the Shafer-Shenoy architectures can be improved by exploiting the independence relations induced by the incoming messages of a clique. That is, the message to be sent from a clique can be computed via a factorization of the clique potential in the form of a junction tree. In this paper we show that by exploiting such nested junction trees in the computation of messages both space and time costs of the conventional propagation methods may be reduced. The paper presents a structured way of exploiting the nested junction trees technique to achieve such reductions. The usefulness of the method is emphasized through a thorough empirical evaluation involving ten large real-world Bayesian networks and the Hugin inference algorithm.

Decomposable models and Bayesian networks can be defined as sequences of oligo-dimensional probability measures connected with operators of composition. The preliminary results suggest that the probabilistic models allowing for effective computational procedures are represented by sequences possessing a special property; we shall call them perfect sequences. The paper lays down the elementary foundation necessary for further study of iterative application of operators of composition. We believe to develop a technique describing several graph models in a unifying way. We are convinced that practically all theoretical results and procedures connected with decomposable models and Bayesian networks can be translated into the terminology introduced in this paper. For example, complexity of computational procedures in these models is closely dependent on possibility to change the ordering of oligo-dimensional measures defining the model. Therefore, in this paper, lot of attention is paid to possibility to change ordering of the operators of composition.

Valuation based systems verifying an idempotent property are studied. A partial order is defined between the valuations giving them a lattice structure. Then, two different strategies are introduced to represent valuations: as infimum of the most informative valuations or as supremum of the least informative ones. It is studied how to carry out computations with both representations in an efficient way. The particular cases of finite sets and convex polytopes are considered.

This paper investigates the problem of finding a preference relation on a set of acts from the knowledge of an ordering on events (subsets of states of the world) describing the decision-maker (DM)s uncertainty and an ordering of consequences of acts, describing the DMs preferences. However, contrary to classical approaches to decision theory, we try to do it without resorting to any numerical representation of utility nor uncertainty, and without even using any qualitative scale on which both uncertainty and preference could be mapped. It is shown that although many axioms of Savage theory can be preserved and despite the intuitive appeal of the method for constructing a preference over acts, the approach is inconsistent with a probabilistic representation of uncertainty, but leads to the kind of uncertainty theory encountered in non-monotonic reasoning (especially preferential and rational inference), closely related to possibility theory. Moreover the method turns out to be either very little decisive or to lead to very risky decisions, although its basic principles look sound. This paper raises the question of the very possibility of purely symbolic approaches to Savage-like decision-making under uncertainty and obtains preliminary negative results.

Performance prediction or forecasting sporting outcomes involves a great deal of insight into the particular area one is dealing with, and a considerable amount of intuition about the factors that bear on such outcomes and performances. The mathematical Theory of Evidence offers representation formalisms which grant experts a high degree of freedom when expressing their subjective beliefs in the context of decision-making situations like performance prediction. Furthermore, this reasoning framework incorporates a powerful mechanism to systematically pool the decisions made by individual subject matter experts. The idea behind such a combination of knowledge is to improve the competence (quality) of the overall decision-making process. This paper reports on a performance prediction experiment carried out during the European Football Championship in 1996. Relying on the knowledge of four predictors, Evidence Theory was used to forecast the final scores of all 31 matches. The results of this empirical study are very encouraging.

This volume contains the papers presented at CICLOPS'12: 12th International Colloquium on Implementation of Constraint and LOgic Programming Systems held on Tueseday September 4th, 2012 in Budapest. The program included 1 invited talk, 9 technical presentations and a panel discussion on Prolog open standards (open.pl). Each programme paper was reviewed by 3 reviewers. CICLOPS'12 continues a tradition of successful workshops on Implementations of Logic Programming Systems, previously held in Budapest (1993) and Ithaca (1994), the Compulog Net workshops on Parallelism and Implementation Technologies held in Madrid (1993 and 1994), Utrecht (1995) and Bonn (1996), the Workshop on Parallelism and Implementation Technology for (Constraint) Logic Programming Languages held in Port Jefferson (1997), Manchester (1998), Las Cruces (1999), and London (2000), and more recently the Colloquium on Implementation of Constraint and LOgic Programming Systems in Paphos (2001), Copenhagen (2002), Mumbai (2003), Saint Malo (2004), Sitges (2005), Seattle (2006), Porto (2007), Udine (2008), Pasadena (2009), Edinburgh (2010) - together with WLPE, Lexington (2011). We would like to thank all the authors, Tom Schrijvers for his invited talk, the programme committee members, and the ICLP 2012 organisers. We would like to also thank arXiv.org for providing permanent hosting.

The family of Groves mechanisms, which includes the well-known VCG mechanism (also known as the Clarke mechanism), is a family of efficient and strategy-proof mechanisms. Unfortunately, the Groves mechanisms are generally not budget balanced. That is, under such mechanisms, payments may flow into or out of the system of the agents, resulting in deficits or reduced utilities for the agents. We consider the following problem: within the family of Groves mechanisms, we want to identify mechanisms that give the agents the highest utilities, under the constraint that these mechanisms must never incur deficits. We adopt a prior-free approach. We introduce two general measures for comparing mechanisms in prior-free settings. We say that a non-deficit Groves mechanism M individually dominates another non-deficit Groves mechanism M' if for every type profile, every agent's utility under M is no less than that under M', and this holds with strict inequality for at least one type profile and one agent. We say that a non-deficit Groves mechanism M collectively dominates another non-deficit Groves mechanism M' if for every type profile, the agents' total utility under M is no less than that under M', and this holds with strict inequality for at least one type profile. The above definitions induce two partial orders on non-deficit Groves mechanisms. We study the maximal elements corresponding to these two partial orders, which we call the individually undominated mechanisms and the collectively undominated mechanisms, respectively.

In this paper we investigate the geometry of the likelihood of the unknown parameters in a simple class of Bayesian directed graphs with hidden variables. This enables us, before any numerical algorithms are employed, to obtain certain insights in the nature of the unidentifiability inherent in such models, the way posterior densities will be sensitive to prior densities and the typical geometrical form these posterior densities might take. Many of these insights carry over into more complicated Bayesian networks with systematic missing data.