We extend logistic regression by using t-exponential families which were introduced recently in statistical physics. This gives rise to a regularized risk minimization problem with a non-convex loss function. An efficient block coordinate descent optimization scheme can be derived for estimating the parameters. Because of the nature of the loss function, our algorithm is tolerant to label noise. Furthermore, unlike other algorithms which employ non-convex loss functions, our algorithm is fairly robust to the choice of initial values. We verify both these observations empirically on a number of synthetic and real datasets.

Recent experimental work has suggested that the neural firing rate can be interpreted as a fractional derivative, at least when signal variation induces neural adaptation. Here, we show that the actual neural spike-train itself can be considered as the fractional derivative, provided that the neural signal is approximated by a sum of power-law kernels. A simple standard thresholding spiking neuron suffices to carry out such an approximation, given a suitable refractory response. Empirically, we find that the online approximation of signals with a sum of power-law kernels is beneficial for encoding signals with slowly varying components, like long-memory self-similar signals. For such signals, the online power-law kernel approximation typically required less than half the number of spikes for similar SNR as compared to sums of similar but exponentially decaying kernels. As power-law kernels can be accurately approximated using sums or cascades of weighted exponentials, we demonstrate that the corresponding decoding of spike-trains by a receiving neuron allows for natural and transparent temporal signal filtering by tuning the weights of the decoding kernel.

In some stochastic environments the well-known reinforcement learning algorithm Q-learning performs very poorly. This poor performance is caused by large overestimations of action values. These overestimations result from a positive bias that is introduced because Q-learning uses the maximum action value as an approximation for the maximum expected action value. We introduce an alternative way to approximate the maximum expected value for any set of random variables. The obtained double estimator method is shown to sometimes underestimate rather than overestimate the maximum expected value. We apply the double estimator to Q-learning to construct Double Q-learning, a new off-policy reinforcement learning algorithm. We show the new algorithm converges to the optimal policy and that it performs well in some settings in which Q-learning performs poorly due to its overestimation.

During the last years support vector machines (SVMs) have been successfully applied even in situations where the input space $X$ is not necessarily a subset of $R^d$. Examples include SVMs using probability measures to analyse e.g. histograms or coloured images, SVMs for text classification and web mining, and SVMs for applications from computational biology using, e.g., kernels for trees and graphs. Moreover, SVMs are known to be consistent to the Bayes risk, if either the input space is a complete separable metric space and the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) $H\subset L_p(P_X)$ is dense, or if the SVM is based on a universal kernel $k$. So far, however, there are no RKHSs of practical interest known that satisfy these assumptions on $\cH$ or $k$ if $X \not\subset R^d$. We close this gap by providing a general technique based on Taylor-type kernels to explicitly construct universal kernels on compact metric spaces which are not subset of $R^d$. We apply this technique for the following special cases: universal kernels on the set of probability measures, universal kernels based on Fourier transforms, and universal kernels for signal processing.

We address the problem of estimating the F-measure of a given model as accurately as possible on a fixed labeling budget. This problem occurs whenever an estimate cannot be obtained from held-out training data; for instance, when data that have been used to train the model are held back for reasons of privacy or do not reflect the test distribution. In this case, new test instances have to be drawn and labeled at a cost. An active estimation procedure selects instances according to an instrumental sampling distribution. An analysis of the sources of estimation error leads to an optimal sampling distribution that minimizes estimator variance. We explore conditions under which active estimates of F-measures are more accurate than estimates based on instances sampled from the test distribution.

A long-standing open research problem is how to use information from different experiments, including background knowledge, to infer causal relations. Recent developments have shown ways to use multiple data sets, provided they originate from identical experiments. We present the MCI-algorithm as the first method that can infer provably valid causal relations in the large sample limit from different experiments. It is fast, reliable and produces very clear and easily interpretable output. It is based on a result that shows that constraint-based causal discovery is decomposable into a candidate pair identification and subsequent elimination step that can be applied separately from different models. We test the algorithm on a variety of synthetic input model sets to assess its behavior and the quality of the output. The method shows promising signs that it can be adapted to suit causal discovery in real-world application areas as well, including large databases.

We present the Copula Bayesian Network model for representing multivariate continuous distributions. Our approach builds on a novel copula-based parameterization of a conditional density that, joined with a graph that encodes independencies, offers great flexibility in modeling high-dimensional densities, while maintaining control over the form of the univariate marginals. We demonstrate the advantage of our framework for generalization over standard Bayesian networks as well as tree structured copula models for varied real-life domains that are of substantially higher dimension than those typically considered in the copula literature.

We introduce a stochastic process with Wishart marginals: the generalised Wishart process (GWP). It is a collection of positive semi-definite random matrices indexed by any arbitrary dependent variable. We use it to model dynamic (e.g. time varying) covariance matrices. Unlike existing models, it can capture a diverse class of covariance structures, it can easily handle missing data, the dependent variable can readily include covariates other than time, and it scales well with dimension; there is no need for free parameters, and optional parameters are easy to interpret. We describe how to construct the GWP, introduce general procedures for inference and predictions, and show that it outperforms its main competitor, multivariate GARCH, even on financial data that especially suits GARCH. We also show how to predict the mean of a multivariate process while accounting for dynamic correlations.

In video games, virtual characters' decision systems often use a simplified representation of the world. To increase both their autonomy and believability we want those characters to be able to learn this representation from human players. We propose to use a model called growing neural gas to learn by imitation the topology of the environment. The implementation of the model, the modifications and the parameters we used are detailed. Then, the quality of the learned representations and their evolution during the learning are studied using different measures. Improvements for the growing neural gas to give more information to the character's model are given in the conclusion.

Software cost estimation is one of the prerequisite managerial activities carried out at the software development initiation stages and also repeated throughout the whole software life-cycle so that amendments to the total cost are made. In software cost estimation typically, a selection of project attributes is employed to produce effort estimations of the expected human resources to deliver a software product. However, choosing the appropriate project cost drivers in each case requires a lot of experience and knowledge on behalf of the project manager which can only be obtained through years of software engineering practice. A number of studies indicate that popular methods applied in the literature for software cost estimation, such as linear regression, are not robust enough and do not yield accurate predictions. Recently the dual variables Ridge Regression (RR) technique has been used for effort estimation yielding promising results. In this work we show that results may be further improved if an AI method is used to automatically select appropriate project cost drivers (inputs) for the technique. We propose a hybrid approach combining RR with a Genetic Algorithm, the latter evolving the subset of attributes for approximating effort more accurately. The proposed hybrid cost model has been applied on a widely known high-dimensional dataset of software project samples and the results obtained show that accuracy may be increased if redundant attributes are eliminated.