Multi-modal journey planning, which allows multiple types of transport within a single trip, is becoming increasingly popular, due to a strong practical interest and an increasing availability of data. In real life, transport networks feature uncertainty. Yet, most approaches assume a deterministic environment, making plans more prone to failures such as major delays in the arrival. We model the scenario as a non-deterministic planning problem with continuous time and time-dependent probabilities of non-deterministic effects. We present new hardness results. We introduce a heuristic search planner, based on Weighted AO* (WAO*). The planner includes search enhancements such as sound pruning, based on state dominance, and an admissible heuristic. Focusing on plans that are robust to uncertainty, we demonstrate our ideas on data compiled from real historical data from Dublin, Ireland. Repeated calls to WAO*, with decreasing weights, have a good any-time performance. Our search enhancements play an important role in the planner's performance.

In domains like bioinformatics, information retrieval and social network analysis, one can find learning tasks where the goal consists of inferring a ranking of objects, conditioned on a particular target object. We present a general kernel framework for learning conditional rankings from various types of relational data, where rankings can be conditioned on unseen data objects. We propose efficient algorithms for conditional ranking by optimizing squared regression and ranking loss functions. We show theoretically, that learning with the ranking loss is likely to generalize better than with the regression loss. Further, we prove that symmetry or reciprocity properties of relations can be efficiently enforced in the learned models. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data illustrate that the proposed methods deliver state-of-the-art performance in terms of predictive power and computational efficiency. Moreover, we also show empirically that incorporating symmetry or reciprocity properties can improve the generalization performance.

We show how binary classification methods developed to work on i.i.d. data can be used for solving statistical problems that are seemingly unrelated to classification and concern highly-dependent time series. Specifically, the problems of time-series clustering, homogeneity testing and the three-sample problem are addressed. The algorithms that we construct for solving these problems are based on a new metric between time-series distributions, which can be evaluated using binary classification methods. Universal consistency of the proposed algorithms is proven under most general assumptions. The theoretical results are illustrated with experiments on synthetic and real-world data.

Machine learning is used to approximate the kinetic energy of one dimensional diatomics as a functional of the electron density. The functional can accurately dissociate a diatomic, and can be systematically improved with training. Highly accurate self-consistent densities and molecular forces are found, indicating the possibility for ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations.

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are widely used in statistics and machine learning. Bayesian inference in non-conjugate LGMs is difficult due to intractable integrals involving the Gaussian prior and non-conjugate likelihoods. Algorithms based on variational Gaussian (VG) approximations are widely employed since they strike a favorable balance between accuracy, generality, speed, and ease of use. However, the structure of the optimization problems associated with these approximations remains poorly understood, and standard solvers take too long to converge. We derive a novel dual variational inference approach that exploits the convexity property of the VG approximations. We obtain an algorithm that solves a convex optimization problem, reduces the number of variational parameters, and converges much faster than previous methods. Using real-world data, we demonstrate these advantages on a variety of LGMs, including Gaussian process classification, and latent Gaussian Markov random fields.

Online learning with delayed feedback has received increasing attention recently due to its several applications in distributed, web-based learning problems. In this paper we provide a systematic study of the topic, and analyze the effect of delay on the regret of online learning algorithms. Somewhat surprisingly, it turns out that delay increases the regret in a multiplicative way in adversarial problems, and in an additive way in stochastic problems. We give meta-algorithms that transform, in a black-box fashion, algorithms developed for the non-delayed case into ones that can handle the presence of delays in the feedback loop. Modifications of the well-known UCB algorithm are also developed for the bandit problem with delayed feedback, with the advantage over the meta-algorithms that they can be implemented with lower complexity.

Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribution a probabilistic model for an idealized dark matter localization problem is described. We first derive the probabilistic model for the inference of dark matter locations and masses, and then show how this model can be implemented using BUGS and Infer.NET, two software systems for probabilistic programming. Finally, the different capabilities of both systems are discussed. The presented dark matter model includes mainly non-conjugate factors, thus, it is difficult to implement this model with Infer.NET.

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To address these problems we introduce a novel dynamic model for time-changing covariances. Over-fitting and local optima are avoided by following a Bayesian approach instead of computing point estimates. Changes in market conditions are captured by assuming a diffusion process in parameter values, and finally computationally efficient and scalable inference is performed using particle filters. Experiments with financial data show excellent performance of the proposed method with respect to current standard models.

We study the power of different types of adaptive (nonoblivious) adversaries in the setting of prediction with expert advice, under both full-information and bandit feedback. We measure the player's performance using a new notion of regret, also known as policy regret, which better captures the adversary's adaptiveness to the player's behavior. In a setting where losses are allowed to drift, we characterize ---in a nearly complete manner--- the power of adaptive adversaries with bounded memories and switching costs. In particular, we show that with switching costs, the attainable rate with bandit feedback is $\widetilde{\Theta}(T^{2/3})$. Interestingly, this rate is significantly worse than the $\Theta(\sqrt{T})$ rate attainable with switching costs in the full-information case. Via a novel reduction from experts to bandits, we also show that a bounded memory adversary can force $\widetilde{\Theta}(T^{2/3})$ regret even in the full information case, proving that switching costs are easier to control than bounded memory adversaries. Our lower bounds rely on a new stochastic adversary strategy that generates loss processes with strong dependencies.

Major advances in Question Answering technology were needed for IBM Watson to play Jeopardy! at championship level -- the show requires rapid-fire answers to challenging natural language questions, broad general knowledge, high precision, and accurate confidence estimates. In addition, Jeopardy! features four types of decision making carrying great strategic importance: (1) Daily Double wagering; (2) Final Jeopardy wagering; (3) selecting the next square when in control of the board; (4) deciding whether to attempt to answer, i.e., "buzz in." Using sophisticated strategies for these decisions, that properly account for the game state and future event probabilities, can significantly boost a player's overall chances to win, when compared with simple "rule of thumb" strategies. This article presents our approach to developing Watson's game-playing strategies, comprising development of a faithful simulation model, and then using learning and Monte-Carlo methods within the simulator to optimize Watson's strategic decision-making. After giving a detailed description of each of our game-strategy algorithms, we then focus in particular on validating the accuracy of the simulator's predictions, and documenting performance improvements using our methods. Quantitative performance benefits are shown with respect to both simple heuristic strategies, and actual human contestant performance in historical episodes. We further extend our analysis of human play to derive a number of valuable and counterintuitive examples illustrating how human contestants may improve their performance on the show.