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Causal Transportability with Limited Experiments

AAAI Conferences

We address the problem of transferring causal knowledge learned in one environment to another, potentially different environment, when only limited experiments may be conducted at the source. This generalizes the treatment of transportability introduced in [Pearl and Bareinboim, 2011; Bareinboim and Pearl, 2012b], which deals with transferring causal information when any experiment can be conducted at the source. Given that it is not always feasible to conduct certain controlled experiments, we consider the decision problem whether experiments on a selected subset Z of variables together with qualitative assumptions encoded in a diagram may render causal effects in the target environment computable from the available data. This problem, which we call z-transportability, reduces to ordinary transportability when Z is all-inclusive, and, like the latter, can be given syntactic characterization using the do-calculus [Pearl, 1995; 2000]. This paper establishes a necessary and sufficient condition for causal effects in the target domain to be estimable from both the non-experimental information available and the limited experimental information transferred from the source. We further provides a complete algorithm for computing the transport formula, that is, a way of fusing experimental and observational information to synthesize an unbiased estimate of the desired causal relation.


Optimal Coalition Structure Generation in Cooperative Graph Games

AAAI Conferences

Representation languages for coalitional games are a key research area in algorithmic game theory. There is an inherent tradeoff between how general a language is, allowing it to capture more elaborate games, and how hard it is computationally to optimize and solve such games. One prominent such language is the simple yet expressive Weighted Graph Games (WGGs) representation (Deng and Papadimitriou, 1994), which maintains knowledge about synergies between agents in the form of an edge weighted graph. We consider the problem of finding the optimal coalition structure in WGGs. The agents in such games are vertices in a graph, and the value of a coalition is the sum of the weights of the edges present between coalition members. The optimal coalition structure is a partition of the agents to coalitions, that maximizes the sum of utilities obtained by the coalitions. We show that finding the optimal coalition structure is not only hard for general graphs, but is also intractable for restricted families such as planar graphs which are amenable for many other combinatorial problems. We then provide algorithms with constant factor approximations for planar, minor-free and bounded degree graphs.


Bundling Attacks in Judgment Aggregation

AAAI Conferences

We consider judgment aggregation over multiple independent issues, where the chairperson has her own opinion, and can try to bias the outcome by bundling several issues together. Since for each bundle judges must give a uniform answer on all issues, different partitions of the issues may result in an outcome that significantly differs from the "true," issue-wise, decision. We prove that the bundling problem faced by the chairperson, i.e. trying to bias the outcome towards her own opinion, is computationally difficult in the worst case. Then we study the probability that an effective bundling attack exists as the disparity between the opinions of the judges and the chair varies. We show that if every judge initially agrees with the chair on every issue with probability of at least 1/2, then there is almost always a bundling attack (i.e. a partition) where the opinion of the chair on all issues is approved. Moreover, such a partition can be found efficiently. In contrast, when the probability is lower than 1/2 then the chair cannot force her opinion using bundling even on a single issue.


Multi-Cycle Query Caching in Agent Programming

AAAI Conferences

In many logic-based BDI agent programming languages, plan selection involves inferencing over some underlying knowledge representation. While context-sensitive plan selection facilitates the development of flexible, declarative programs, the overhead of evaluating repeated queries to the agent's beliefs and goals can result in poor run time performance. In this paper we present an approach to multi-cycle query caching for logic-based BDI agent programming languages. We extend the abstract performance model presented in (Alechina et al. 2012) to quantify the costs and benefits of caching query results over multiple deliberation cycles. We also present results of experiments with prototype implementations of both single- and multi-cycle caching in three logic-based BDI agent platforms, which demonstrate that significant performance improvements are achievable in practice.


Interdependent Multi-Issue Negotiation for Energy Exchange in Remote Communities

AAAI Conferences

We present a novel negotiation protocol to facilitate energy exchange between off-grid homes that are equipped with renewable energy generation and electricity storage. Our protocol imposes restrictions over negotiation such that it reduces the complex interdependent multi-issue negotiation to one where agents have a strategy profile in subgame perfect Nash equilibrium. We show that our negotiation protocol is tractable, concurrent, scalable and leads to Pareto-optimal outcomes in a decentralised manner. We empirically evaluate our protocol and show that, in this instance, a society of agents can (i) improve the overall utilities by 14% and (ii) reduce their overall use of the batteries by 37%.


A Morphogenetically Assisted Design Variation Tool

AAAI Conferences

The complexity and tight integration of electromechanical systems often makes them "brittle" and hard to modify in response to changing requirements. We aim to remedy this by capturing expert knowledge as functional blueprints, an idea inspired by regulatory processes that occur in natural morphogenesis. We then apply this knowledge in an intelligent design variation tool. When a user modifies a design, our tool uses functional blueprints to modify other components in response, thereby maintaining integration and reducing the need for costly search or constraint solving. In this paper, we refine the functional blueprint concept and discuss practical issues in applying it to electromechanical systems. We then validate our approach with a case study applying our prototype tool to create variants of a miniDroid robot and by empirical evaluation of convergence dynamics of networks of functional blueprints.


Awards

AAAI Conferences

Candidate papers for the AAAI-13 awards were selected based on overall ratings and nominations by the PC and Senior PC. A committee composed of the Program Cochairs and several Associate Chairs and Senior Program Committee Members reviewed all candidate papers and selected the winning papers. This year, two papers were selected for their exceptional quality in all review categories. In addition, four papers were selected for honorable mention, based on their overall high quality and particularly outstanding contributions in specific areas. Each year, AAAI recognizes several outstanding program committee and senior program committee members.



AAAI Organization

AAAI Conferences

Editor David Leake (Indiana University, USA) Reports Editor Robert A. Morris (NASA Ames Research Center, USA) Competition Reports Coeditors Sven Koenig (University of Southern California, USA) Robert A. Morris (NASA Ames Research Center, USA) Managing Editor David M. Hamilton (The Live Oak Press, LLC, USA)


Lifted Variable Elimination: Decoupling the Operators from the Constraint Language

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Lifted probabilistic inference algorithms exploit regularities in the structure of graphical models to perform inference more efficiently. More specifically, they identify groups of interchangeable variables and perform inference once per group, as opposed to once per variable. The groups are defined by means of constraints, so the flexibility of the grouping is determined by the expressivity of the constraint language. Existing approaches for exact lifted inference use specific languages for (in)equality constraints, which often have limited expressivity. In this article, we decouple lifted inference from the constraint language. We define operators for lifted inference in terms of relational algebra operators, so that they operate on the semantic level (the constraints' extension) rather than on the syntactic level, making them language-independent. As a result, lifted inference can be performed using more powerful constraint languages, which provide more opportunities for lifting. We empirically demonstrate that this can improve inference efficiency by orders of magnitude, allowing exact inference where until now only approximate inference was feasible.