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Structure Learning of Probabilistic Logic Programs by Searching the Clause Space

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning probabilistic logic programming languages is receiving an increasing attention and systems are available for learning the parameters (PRISM, LeProbLog, LFI-ProbLog and EMBLEM) or both the structure and the parameters (SEM-CP-logic and SLIPCASE) of these languages. In this paper we present the algorithm SLIPCOVER for "Structure LearnIng of Probabilistic logic programs by searChing OVER the clause space". It performs a beam search in the space of probabilistic clauses and a greedy search in the space of theories, using the log likelihood of the data as the guiding heuristics. To estimate the log likelihood SLIPCOVER performs Expectation Maximization with EMBLEM. The algorithm has been tested on five real world datasets and compared with SLIPCASE, SEM-CP-logic, Aleph and two algorithms for learning Markov Logic Networks (Learning using Structural Motifs (LSM) and ALEPH++ExactL1). SLIPCOVER achieves higher areas under the precision-recall and ROC curves in most cases.


A solution concept for games with altruism and cooperation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the years, numerous experiments have been accumulated to show that cooperation is not casual and depends on the payoffs of the game. These findings suggest that humans have attitude to cooperation by nature and the same person may act more or less cooperatively depending on the particular payoffs. In other words, people do not act a priori as single agents, but they forecast how the game would be played if they formed coalitions and then they play according to their best forecast. In this paper we formalize this idea and we define a new solution concept for one-shot normal form games. We prove that this \emph{cooperative equilibrium} exists for all finite games and it explains a number of different experimental findings, such as (1) the rate of cooperation in the Prisoner's dilemma depends on the cost-benefit ratio; (2) the rate of cooperation in the Traveler's dilemma depends on the bonus/penalty; (3) the rate of cooperation in the Publig Goods game depends on the pro-capite marginal return and on the numbers of players; (4) the rate of cooperation in the Bertrand competition depends on the number of players; (5) players tend to be fair in the bargaining problem; (6) players tend to be fair in the Ultimatum game; (7) players tend to be altruist in the Dictator game; (8) offers in the Ultimatum game are larger than offers in the Dictator game.


Efficient Monte Carlo Methods for Multi-Dimensional Learning with Classifier Chains

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multidimensional classification (MDC) is the supervised learning problem where an instance is associated with multiple classes, rather than with a single class, as in traditional classification problems. Since these classes are often strongly correlated, modeling the dependencies between them allows MDC methods to improve their performance - at the expense of an increased computational cost. In this paper we focus on the classifier chains (CC) approach for modeling dependencies, one of the most popular and highestperforming methods for multi-label classification (MLC), a particular case of MDC which involves only binary classes (i.e., labels). The original CC algorithm makes a greedy approximation, and is fast but tends to propagate errors along the chain. Our algorithms remain tractable for high-dimensional data sets and obtain the best predictive performance across several real data sets. Keywords: classifier chains, multidimensional classification, multi-label classification, Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian inference 1. Introduction Multidimensional classification (MDC) is the supervised learning problem where an instance may be associated with multiple classes, rather than Preprint submitted to Pattern Recognition March 22, 2018 with a single class as in traditional binary or multi-class single-dimensional classification (SDC) problems. So-called MDC (e.g., in [1]) is also known in the literature as multi-target, multi-output [2], or multi-objective [3] classification The recently popularised task of multi-label classification (see [4, 5, 6, 7] for overviews) can be viewed as a particular case of the multidimensional problem that only involves binary classes, i.e., labels that can be turned on (1) or off (0) for any data instance. The MDC learning context is receiving increased attention in the literature, since it arises naturally in a wide variety of domains, such as image classification [8, 9], information retrieval and text categorization [10], automated detection of emotions in music [11] or bioinformatics [10, 12].


Guided Self-Organization of Input-Driven Recurrent Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We review attempts that have been made towards understanding the computational properties and mechanisms of input-driven dynamical systems like RNNs, and reservoir computing networks in particular. We provide details on methods that have been developed to give quantitative answers to the questions above. Following this, we show how self-organization may be used to improve reservoirs for better performance, in some cases guided by the measures presented before. We also present a possible way to quantify task performance using an information-theoretic approach, and finally discuss promising future directions aimed at a better understanding of how these systems perform their computations and how to best guide self-organized processes for their optimization.


Entanglement Zoo II: Examples in Physics and Cognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We have recently presented a general scheme enabling quantum modeling of different types of situations that violate Bell's inequalities. In this paper, we specify this scheme for a combination of two concepts. We work out a quantum Hilbert space model where 'entangled measurements' occur in addition to the expected 'entanglement between the component concepts', or 'state entanglement'. We extend this result to a macroscopic physical entity, the 'connected vessels of water', which maximally violates Bell's inequalities. We enlighten the structural and conceptual analogies between the cognitive and physical situations which are both examples of a nonlocal non-marginal box modeling in our classification.


Entanglement Zoo I: Foundational and Structural Aspects

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We put forward a general classification for a structural description of the entanglement present in compound entities experimentally violating Bell's inequalities, making use of a new entanglement scheme that we developed recently. Our scheme, although different from the traditional one, is completely compatible with standard quantum theory, and enables quantum modeling in complex Hilbert space for different types of situations. Namely, situations where entangled states and product measurements appear ('customary quantum modeling'), and situations where states and measurements and evolutions between measurements are entangled ('nonlocal box modeling', 'nonlocal non-marginal box modeling'). The role played by Tsirelson's bound and marginal distribution law is emphasized. Specific quantum models are worked out in detail in complex Hilbert space within this new entanglement scheme.


Weighted regret-based likelihood: a new approach to describing uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently, Halpern and Leung suggested representing uncertainty by a weighted set of probability measures, and suggested a way of making decisions based on this representation of uncertainty: maximizing weighted regret. Their paper does not answer an apparently simpler question: what it means, according to this representation of uncertainty, for an event E to be more likely than an event E'. In this paper, a notion of comparative likelihood when uncertainty is represented by a weighted set of probability measures is defined. It generalizes the ordering defined by probability (and by lower probability) in a natural way; a generalization of upper probability can also be defined. A complete axiomatic characterization of this notion of regret-based likelihood is given.


Compact Representations of Extended Causal Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One of Judea Pearl's many, many important contributions to the study of causality was the first attempt to use the mathematical tools of causal modeling to give an account of "actual causation", a notion that has been of considerable interest among philosophers and legal theorists (Pearl, 2000, Chapter 10). Pearl later revised his account of actual causation in joint work with Halpern (Halpern & Pearl, 2005). A number of authors (Hall, 2007; Halpern, 2008; Hitchcock, 2007; Menzies, 2004) have suggested that an account of actual causation must be sensitive to considerations of normality, as well as to causal structure. In (Halpern & Hitchcock, 2011), we suggest a way of incorporating considerations of normality into the Halpern-Pearl theory, and show how to extend the account to illuminate features of the psychology of causal judgment, as well as features of causal reasoning in the law. Our account of actual causation makes use of "extended causal models", which include both structural equations among a set of variables, and a partial preorder on possible worlds, which represents the relative "normality" of those worlds. We actually want to think of people as working with the structural equations and normality order to evaluate actual causation. However, consideration of even simple examples immediately suggests a problem. A direct representation of the equations and normality order is too cumbersome for cognitively limited agents to use effectively. If our account of actual causation is to be at all realistic as a model of human causal judgment, some form of compact representation will be needed.


On the Robustness of Temporal Properties for Stochastic Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stochastic models such as Continuous-Time Markov Chains (CTMC) and Stochastic Hybrid Automata (SHA) are powerful formalisms to model and to reason about the dynamics of biological systems, due to their ability to capture the stochasticity inherent in biological processes. A classical question in formal modelling with clear relevance to biological modelling is the model checking problem. i.e. calculate the probability that a behaviour, expressed for instance in terms of a certain temporal logic formula, may occur in a given stochastic process. However, one may not only be interested in the notion of satisfiability, but also in the capacity of a system to mantain a particular emergent behaviour unaffected by the perturbations, caused e.g. from extrinsic noise, or by possible small changes in the model parameters. To address this issue, researchers from the verification community have recently proposed several notions of robustness for temporal logic providing suitable definitions of distance between a trajectory of a (deterministic) dynamical system and the boundaries of the set of trajectories satisfying the property of interest. The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, we extend the notion of robustness to stochastic systems, showing that this naturally leads to a distribution of robustness scores. By discussing two examples, we show how to approximate the distribution of the robustness score and its key indicators: the average robustness and the conditional average robustness. Secondly, we show how to combine these indicators with the satisfaction probability to address the system design problem, where the goal is to optimize some control parameters of a stochastic model in order to best maximize robustness of the desired specifications.


Scalable Probabilistic Entity-Topic Modeling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present an LDA approach to entity disambiguation. Each topic is associated with a Wikipedia article and topics generate either content words or entity mentions. Training such models is challenging because of the topic and vocabulary size, both in the millions. We tackle these problems using a novel distributed inference and representation framework based on a parallel Gibbs sampler guided by the Wikipedia link graph, and pipelines of MapReduce allowing fast and memory-frugal processing of large datasets. We report state-of-the-art performance on a public dataset.