We propose SPARFA-Trace, a new machine learning-based framework for time-varying learning and content analytics for education applications. We develop a novel message passing-based, blind, approximate Kalman filter for sparse factor analysis (SPARFA), that jointly (i) traces learner concept knowledge over time, (ii) analyzes learner concept knowledge state transitions (induced by interacting with learning resources, such as textbook sections, lecture videos, etc, or the forgetting effect), and (iii) estimates the content organization and intrinsic difficulty of the assessment questions. These quantities are estimated solely from binary-valued (correct/incorrect) graded learner response data and a summary of the specific actions each learner performs (e.g., answering a question or studying a learning resource) at each time instance. Experimental results on two online course datasets demonstrate that SPARFA-Trace is capable of tracing each learner's concept knowledge evolution over time, as well as analyzing the quality and content organization of learning resources, the question-concept associations, and the question intrinsic difficulties. Moreover, we show that SPARFA-Trace achieves comparable or better performance in predicting unobserved learner responses than existing collaborative filtering and knowledge tracing approaches for personalized education.

A distinctive property of human and animal intelligence is the ability to form abstractions by neglecting irrelevant information which allows to separate structure from noise. From an information theoretic point of view abstractions are desirable because they allow for very efficient information processing. In artificial systems abstractions are often implemented through computationally costly formations of groups or clusters. In this work we establish the relation between the free-energy framework for decision making and rate-distortion theory and demonstrate how the application of rate-distortion for decision-making leads to the emergence of abstractions. We argue that abstractions are induced due to a limit in information processing capacity.

Systematic, or market, risk is one of the most studied risk models not only in financial engineering, but also in actuarial sciences, in business and corporate management, and in several other domains. It is associated to the beta (β) coefficient, which is familiar in the investment industry since Sharpe's capital asset pricing model (CAPM) [30]. The pitfalls and shortcomings of β have been detailed by a number of excellent authors.

Non-Negative Matrix Factorization, NMF, attempts to find a number of archetypal response profiles, or parts, such that any sample profile in the dataset can be approximated by a close profile among these archetypes or a linear combination of these profiles. The non-negativity constraint is imposed while estimating archetypal profiles, due to the non-negative nature of the observed signal. Apart from non negativity, a volume constraint can be applied on the Score matrix W to enhance the ability of learning parts of NMF. In this report, we describe a very simple algorithm, which in effect achieves volume minimization, although indirectly.

Functional Classification, i.e. the binary classification problem when the input observation X (X(t)) is of the form of a (possibly sampled) random curve/function and the output variable Y { 1, 1} is a binary label, has been the subject of a good deal of attention in the machine-learning literature in the past few years, see [1] or [2]. In contrast, Bipartite Ranking, termed Nonparametric Scoring sometimes, has never been tackled in a functional framework, except from the restrictive angle of Functional Logistic Regression, see [3] or [4] for instance. This global learning task consists in ordering all possible input observations X so that positive ones appear on top of the list with highest probability. This predictive problem, which can be cast in terms of ROC curve optimization (see [5]), covers a wide variety of applications, ranging from anomaly detection in signal processing to automatic design of diagnosis tools in medicine through creditscoring in mathematical finance or the conception of search engines in information retrieval. Functional versions of many popular approaches for classification have been developed, relying in general on a preliminary finite dimensional representation/projection of the input data.

We study the representation of systems S of linear equations over the two-element field (aka xor- or parity-constraints) via conjunctive normal forms F (boolean clause-sets). First we consider the problem of finding an "arc-consistent" representation ("AC"), meaning that unit-clause propagation will fix all forced assignments for all possible instantiations of the xor-variables. Our main negative result is that there is no polysize AC-representation in general. On the positive side we show that finding such an AC-representation is fixed-parameter tractable (fpt) in the number of equations. Then we turn to a stronger criterion of representation, namely propagation completeness ("PC") --- while AC only covers the variables of S, now all the variables in F (the variables in S plus auxiliary variables) are considered for PC. We show that the standard translation actually yields a PC representation for one equation, but fails so for two equations (in fact arbitrarily badly). We show that with a more intelligent translation we can also easily compute a translation to PC for two equations. We conjecture that computing a representation in PC is fpt in the number of equations.

We introduce a recursive algorithm for performing compressed sensing on streaming data. The approach consists of a) recursive encoding, where we sample the input stream via overlapping windowing and make use of the previous measurement in obtaining the next one, and b) recursive decoding, where the signal estimate from the previous window is utilized in order to achieve faster convergence in an iterative optimization scheme applied to decode the new one. To remove estimation bias, a two-step estimation procedure is proposed comprising support set detection and signal amplitude estimation. Estimation accuracy is enhanced by a non-linear voting method and averaging estimates over multiple windows. We analyze the computational complexity and estimation error, and show that the normalized error variance asymptotically goes to zero for sublinear sparsity. Our simulation results show speed up of an order of magnitude over traditional CS, while obtaining significantly lower reconstruction error under mild conditions on the signal magnitudes and the noise level.

Dept. of Information Technology, Uppsala University, Sweden.Abstract: Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters governing the properties of this nonparametric representation. The Bayesian formalism enables systematic reasoning about the uncertainty in the system dynamics. We present an approach to maximum likelihood identification of the parameters in GP-SSMs, while retaining the full nonparametric description of the dynamics. The method is based on a stochastic approximation version of the EM algorithm that employs recent developments in particle Markov chain Monte Carlo for efficient identification. INTRODUCTION Inspired by recent developments in robotics and machine learning, we aim at constructing models of nonlinear dynamical systems capable of quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions.

In this paper we study nonconvex penalization using Bernstein functions. Since the Bernstein function is concave and nonsmooth at the origin, it can induce a class of nonconvex functions for high-dimensional sparse estimation problems. We derive a threshold function based on the Bernstein penalty and give its mathematical properties in sparsity modeling. We show that a coordinate descent algorithm is especially appropriate for penalized regression problems with the Bernstein penalty. Additionally, we prove that the Bernstein function can be defined as the concave conjugate of a $\varphi$-divergence and develop a conjugate maximization algorithm for finding the sparse solution. Finally, we particularly exemplify a family of Bernstein nonconvex penalties based on a generalized Gamma measure and conduct empirical analysis for this family.

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system identification) in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gaussian process prior over the state transition dynamics, resulting in a flexible model able to capture complex dynamical phenomena. To enable efficient inference, we marginalize over the transition dynamics function and infer directly the joint smoothing distribution using specially tailored Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo samplers. Once a sample from the smoothing distribution is computed, the state transition predictive distribution can be formulated analytically. Our approach preserves the full nonparametric expressivity of the model and can make use of sparse Gaussian processes to greatly reduce computational complexity.