Recent work introduced the cube-and-conquer technique to solve hard SAT instances. It partitions the search space into cubes using a lookahead solver. Each cube is tackled by a conflict-driven clause learning (CDCL) solver. Crucial for strong performance is the cutoff heuristic that decides when to switch from lookahead to CDCL. Yet, this offline heuristic is far from ideal. In this paper, we present a novel hybrid solver that applies the cube and conquer steps simultaneously. A lookahead and a CDCL solver work together on each cube, while communication is restricted to synchronization. Our concurrent cube-and-conquer solver can solve many instances faster than pure lookahead, pure CDCL and offline cube-and-conquer, and can abort early in favor of a pure CDCL search if an instance is not suitable for cube-and-conquer techniques.

When combined properly, search techniques can reveal the full potential of sophisticated branching heuristics. We demonstrate this observation on the well-known class of random 3-SAT formulae. First, a new branching heuristic is presented, which generalizes existing work on this class. Much smaller search trees can be constructed by using this heuristic. Second, we introduce a variant of discrepancy search, called ALDS. Theoretical and practical evidence support that ALDS traverses the search tree in a near-optimal order when combined with the new heuristic. Both techniques, search and heuristic, have been implemented in the look-ahead solver march. The SAT 2009 competition results show that march is by far the strongest complete solver on random k-SAT formulae.

Ranking measures play an important role in model evaluation and selection. Using both synthetic and real-world data sets, we investigate how different types and levels of noise affect the area under the ROC curve (AUC), the area under the ROC convex hull, the scored AUC, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, and the H-measure. In our experiments, the AUC was, overall, the most robust among these measures, thereby reinvigorating it as a reliable metric despite its well-known deficiencies. This paper also introduces a novel ranking measure, which is remarkably robust to noise yet conceptually simple.

In this paper we show that very large mixtures of Gaussians are efficiently learnable in high dimension. More precisely, we prove that a mixture with known identical covariance matrices whose number of components is a polynomial of any fixed degree in the dimension n is polynomially learnable as long as a certain non-degeneracy condition on the means is satisfied. It turns out that this condition is generic in the sense of smoothed complexity, as soon as the dimensionality of the space is high enough. Moreover, we prove that no such condition can possibly exist in low dimension and the problem of learning the parameters is generically hard. In contrast, much of the existing work on Gaussian Mixtures relies on low-dimensional projections and thus hits an artificial barrier. Our main result on mixture recovery relies on a new "Poissonization"-based technique, which transforms a mixture of Gaussians to a linear map of a product distribution. The problem of learning this map can be efficiently solved using some recent results on tensor decompositions and Independent Component Analysis (ICA), thus giving an algorithm for recovering the mixture. In addition, we combine our low-dimensional hardness results for Gaussian mixtures with Poissonization to show how to embed difficult instances of low-dimensional Gaussian mixtures into the ICA setting, thus establishing exponential information-theoretic lower bounds for underdetermined ICA in low dimension. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first such result in the literature. In addition to contributing to the problem of Gaussian mixture learning, we believe that this work is among the first steps toward better understanding the rare phenomenon of the "blessing of dimensionality" in the computational aspects of statistical inference.

Partition functions arise in a variety of settings, including conditional random fields, logistic regression, and latent gaussian models. In this paper, we consider semistochastic quadratic bound (SQB) methods for maximum likelihood estimation based on partition function optimization. Batch methods based on the quadratic bound were recently proposed for this class of problems, and performed favorably in comparison to state-of-the-art techniques. Semistochastic methods fall in between batch algorithms, which use all the data, and stochastic gradient type methods, which use small random selections at each iteration. We build semistochastic quadratic bound-based methods, and prove both global convergence (to a stationary point) under very weak assumptions, and linear convergence rate under stronger assumptions on the objective. To make the proposed methods faster and more stable, we consider inexact subproblem minimization and batch-size selection schemes. The efficacy of SQB methods is demonstrated via comparison with several state-of-the-art techniques on commonly used datasets.

We present a formal model of human decision-making in explore-exploit tasks using the context of multi-armed bandit problems, where the decision-maker must choose among multiple options with uncertain rewards. We address the standard multi-armed bandit problem, the multi-armed bandit problem with transition costs, and the multi-armed bandit problem on graphs. We focus on the case of Gaussian rewards in a setting where the decision-maker uses Bayesian inference to estimate the reward values. We model the decision-maker's prior knowledge with the Bayesian prior on the mean reward. We develop the upper credible limit (UCL) algorithm for the standard multi-armed bandit problem and show that this deterministic algorithm achieves logarithmic cumulative expected regret, which is optimal performance for uninformative priors. We show how good priors and good assumptions on the correlation structure among arms can greatly enhance decision-making performance, even over short time horizons. We extend to the stochastic UCL algorithm and draw several connections to human decision-making behavior. We present empirical data from human experiments and show that human performance is efficiently captured by the stochastic UCL algorithm with appropriate parameters. For the multi-armed bandit problem with transition costs and the multi-armed bandit problem on graphs, we generalize the UCL algorithm to the block UCL algorithm and the graphical block UCL algorithm, respectively. We show that these algorithms also achieve logarithmic cumulative expected regret and require a sub-logarithmic expected number of transitions among arms. We further illustrate the performance of these algorithms with numerical examples.

A general game player is a system that can play previously unknown games just by being given their rules. For this purpose, the Game Description Language (GDL) has been developed as a high-level knowledge representation formalism to communicate game rules to players. In this paper, we address a fundamental limitation of state-of-the-art methods and systems for General Game Playing, namely, their being confined to deterministic games with complete information about the game state. We develop a simple yet expressive extension of standard GDL that allows for formalising the rules of arbitrary finite, n-player games with randomness and incomplete state knowledge. In the second part of the paper, we address the intricate reasoning challenge for general game-playing systems that comes with the new description language. We develop a full embedding of extended GDL into the Situation Calculus augmented by Scherl and Levesque's knowledge fluent. We formally prove that this provides a sound and complete reasoning method for players' knowledge about game states as well as about the knowledge of the other players.

ABSTRACT Score calibration enables automatic speaker recognizers to make cost-effective accept / reject decisions. Traditional calibration requires supervised data, which is an expensive resource. We propose a 2-component GMM for unsupervised calibration and demonstrate good performance relative to a supervised baseline on NIST SRE'10 and SRE'12. A Bayesian analysis demonstrates that the uncertainty associated with the unsupervised calibration parameter estimates is surprisingly small. Index Terms-- calibration, unsupervised learning, Laplace approximation, automatic speaker recognition 1. INTRODUCTION Automatic speaker recognizers map trials to scores.

This paper proposes to perform authorship analysis using the Fast Compression Distance (FCD), a similarity measure based on compression with dictionaries directly extracted from the written texts. The FCD computes a similarity between two documents through an effective binary search on the intersection set between the two related dictionaries. In the reported experiments the proposed method is applied to documents which are heterogeneous in style, written in five different languages and coming from different historical periods. Results are comparable to the state of the art and outperform traditional compression-based methods.

The law of total probability may be deployed in binary classification exercises to estimate the unconditional class probabilities if the class proportions in the training set are not representative of the population class proportions. We argue that this is not a conceptually sound approach and suggest an alternative based on the new law of total odds. We quantify the bias of the total probability estimator of the unconditional class probabilities and show that the total odds estimator is unbiased. The sample version of the total odds estimator is shown to coincide with a maximum-likelihood estimator known from the literature. The law of total odds can also be used for transforming the conditional class probabilities if independent estimates of the unconditional class probabilities of the population are available. Keywords: Total probability, likelihood ratio, Bayes' formula, binary classification, relative odds, unbiased estimator, supervised learning, dataset shift.