One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been adjusted for. We introduce a novel approach for estimating causal effects that exploits observational conditional independencies to suggest "weak" paths in a unknown causal graph. The widely used faithfulness condition of Spirtes et al. is relaxed to allow for varying degrees of "path cancellations" that imply conditional independencies but do not rule out the existence of confounding causal paths. The outcome is a posterior distribution over bounds on the average causal effect via a linear programming approach and Bayesian inference. We claim this approach should be used in regular practice along with other default tools in observational studies.

Reliable microaneurysm detection in digital fundus images is still an open issue in medical image processing. We propose an ensemble-based framework to improve microaneurysm detection. Unlike the well-known approach of considering the output of multiple classifiers, we propose a combination of internal components of microaneurysm detectors, namely preprocessing methods and candidate extractors. We have evaluated our approach for microaneurysm detection in an online competition, where this algorithm is currently ranked as first and also on two other databases. Since microaneurysm detection is decisive in diabetic retinopathy grading, we also tested the proposed method for this task on the publicly available Messidor database, where a promising AUC 0.90 with 0.01 uncertainty is achieved in a 'DR/non-DR'-type classification based on the presence or absence of the microaneurysms.

In various domains and cases, we observe the creation and usage of information elements which are unnamed. Such elements do not have a name, or may have a name that is not externally referable (usually meaningless and not persistent over time). This paper discusses why we will never `escape' from the problem of having to construct mappings between such unnamed elements in information systems. Since unnamed elements nowadays occur very often in the framework of the Semantic Web and Linked Data as blank nodes, the paper describes scenarios that can benefit from methods that compute mappings between the unnamed elements. For each scenario, the corresponding bnode matching problem is formally defined. Based on this analysis, we try to reach to more a general formulation of the problem, which can be useful for guiding the required technological advances. To this end, the paper finally discusses methods to realize blank node matching, the implementations that exist, and identifies open issues and challenges.

Increasing the expressiveness of qualitative spatial calculi is an essential step towards meeting the requirements of applications. This can be achieved by combining existing calculi in a way that we can express spatial information using relations from multiple calculi. The great challenge is to develop reasoning algorithms that are correct and complete when reasoning over the combined information. Previous work has mainly studied cases where the interaction between the combined calculi was small, or where one of the two calculi was very simple. In this paper we tackle the important combination of topological and directional information for extended spatial objects. We combine some of the best known calculi in qualitative spatial reasoning, the RCC8 algebra for representing topological information, and the Rectangle Algebra (RA) and the Cardinal Direction Calculus (CDC) for directional information. We consider two different interpretations of the RCC8 algebra, one uses a weak connectedness relation, the other uses a strong connectedness relation. In both interpretations, we show that reasoning with topological and directional information is decidable and remains in NP. Our computational complexity results unveil the significant differences between RA and CDC, and that between weak and strong RCC8 models. Take the combination of basic RCC8 and basic CDC constraints as an example: we show that the consistency problem is in P only when we use the strong RCC8 algebra and explicitly know the corresponding basic RA constraints.

Multi-agent Pathfinding is a relevant problem in a wide range of domains, for example in robotics and video games research. Formally, the problem considers a graph consisting of vertices and edges, and a set of agents occupying vertices. An agent can only move to an unoccupied, neighbouring vertex, and the problem of finding the minimal sequence of moves to transfer each agent from its start location to its destination is an NP-hard problem. We present Push and Rotate, a new algorithm that is complete for Multi-agent Pathfinding problems in which there are at least two empty vertices. Push and Rotate first divides the graph into subgraphs within which it is possible for agents to reach any position of the subgraph, and then uses the simple push, swap, and rotate operations to find a solution; a post-processing algorithm is also presented that eliminates redundant moves. Push and Rotate can be seen as extending Luna and Bekris's Push and Swap algorithm, which we showed to be incomplete in a previous publication. In our experiments we compare our approach with the Push and Swap, MAPP, and Bibox algorithms. The latter algorithm is restricted to a smaller class of instances as it requires biconnected graphs, but can nevertheless be considered state of the art due to its strong performance. Our experiments show that Push and Swap suffers from incompleteness, MAPP is generally not competitive with Push and Rotate, and Bibox is better than Push and Rotate on randomly generated biconnected instances, while Push and Rotate performs better on grids.

Modeling dynamical systems is important in many disciplines, e.g., control, robotics, or neurotechnology. Commonly the state of these systems is not directly observed, but only available through noisy and potentially high-dimensional observations. In these cases, system identification, i.e., finding the measurement mapping and the transition mapping (system dynamics) in latent space can be challenging. For linear system dynamics and measurement mappings efficient solutions for system identification are available. However, in practical applications, the linearity assumptions does not hold, requiring non-linear system identification techniques. If additionally the observations are high-dimensional (e.g., images), non-linear system identification is inherently hard. To address the problem of non-linear system identification from high-dimensional observations, we combine recent advances in deep learning and system identification. In particular, we jointly learn a low-dimensional embedding of the observation by means of deep auto-encoders and a predictive transition model in this low-dimensional space. We demonstrate that our model enables learning good predictive models of dynamical systems from pixel information only.

We propose a novel graphical model selection (GMS) scheme for high-dimensional stationary time series or discrete time process. The method is based on a natural generalization of the graphical LASSO (gLASSO), introduced originally for GMS based on i.i.d. samples, and estimates the conditional independence graph (CIG) of a time series from a finite length observation. The gLASSO for time series is defined as the solution of an l1-regularized maximum (approximate) likelihood problem. We solve this optimization problem using the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). Our approach is nonparametric as we do not assume a finite dimensional (e.g., an autoregressive) parametric model for the observed process. Instead, we require the process to be sufficiently smooth in the spectral domain. For Gaussian processes, we characterize the performance of our method theoretically by deriving an upper bound on the probability that our algorithm fails to correctly identify the CIG. Numerical experiments demonstrate the ability of our method to recover the correct CIG from a limited amount of samples.

We demonstrate that there is significant redundancy in the parameterization of several deep learning models. Given only a few weight values for each feature it is possible to accurately predict the remaining values. Moreover, we show that not only can the parameter values be predicted, but many of them need not be learned at all. We train several different architectures by learning only a small number of weights and predicting the rest. In the best case we are able to predict more than 95% of the weights of a network without any drop in accuracy.

The considerable mathematical knowledge encoded by the Flyspeck project is combined with external automated theorem provers (ATPs) and machine-learning premise selection methods trained on the proofs, producing an AI system capable of answering a wide range of mathematical queries automatically. The performance of this architecture is evaluated in a bootstrapping scenario emulating the development of Flyspeck from axioms to the last theorem, each time using only the previous theorems and proofs. It is shown that 39% of the 14185 theorems could be proved in a push-button mode (without any high-level advice and user interaction) in 30 seconds of real time on a fourteen-CPU workstation. The necessary work involves: (i) an implementation of sound translations of the HOL Light logic to ATP formalisms: untyped first-order, polymorphic typed first-order, and typed higher-order, (ii) export of the dependency information from HOL Light and ATP proofs for the machine learners, and (iii) choice of suitable representations and methods for learning from previous proofs, and their integration as advisors with HOL Light. This work is described and discussed here, and an initial analysis of the body of proofs that were found fully automatically is provided.

Portable, Wearable and Wireless electrocardiogram (ECG) Systems have the potential to be used as point-of-care for cardiovascular disease diagnostic systems. Such wearable and wireless ECG systems require automatic detection of cardiovascular disease. Even in the primary care, automation of ECG diagnostic systems will improve efficiency of ECG diagnosis and reduce the minimal training requirement of local healthcare workers. However, few fully automatic myocardial infarction (MI) disease detection algorithms have well been developed. This paper presents a novel automatic MI classification algorithm using second order ordinary differential equation (ODE) with time varying coefficients, which simultaneously captures morphological and dynamic feature of highly correlated ECG signals. By effectively estimating the unobserved state variables and the parameters of the second order ODE, the accuracy of the classification was significantly improved. The estimated time varying coefficients of the second order ODE were used as an input to the support vector machine (SVM) for the MI classification. The proposed method was applied to the PTB diagnostic ECG database within Physionet. The overall sensitivity, specificity, and classification accuracy of 12 lead ECGs for MI binary classifications were 98.7%, 96.4% and 98.3%, respectively. We also found that even using one lead ECG signals, we can reach accuracy as high as 97%. Multiclass MI classification is a challenging task but the developed ODE approach for 12 lead ECGs coupled with multiclass SVM reached 96.4% accuracy for classifying 5 subgroups of MI and healthy controls.