The paper presents a new copula based method for measuring dependence between random variables. Our approach extends the Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the copula of the joint distribution. We prove that this approach has several advantageous properties. Similarly to Shannon mutual information, the proposed dependence measure is invariant to any strictly increasing transformation of the marginal variables. This is important in many applications, for example in feature selection. The estimator is consistent, robust to outliers, and uses rank statistics only. We derive upper bounds on the convergence rate and propose independence tests too. We illustrate the theoretical contributions through a series of experiments in feature selection and low-dimensional embedding of distributions.

In this paper we present a fully Bayesian latent variable model which exploits conditional nonlinear(in)-dependence structures to learn an efficient latent representation. The latent space is factorized to represent shared and private information from multiple views of the data. In contrast to previous approaches, we introduce a relaxation to the discrete segmentation and allow for a "softly" shared latent space. Further, Bayesian techniques allow us to automatically estimate the dimensionality of the latent spaces. The model is capable of capturing structure underlying extremely high dimensional spaces. This is illustrated by modelling unprocessed images with tenths of thousands of pixels. This also allows us to directly generate novel images from the trained model by sampling from the discovered latent spaces. We also demonstrate the model by prediction of human pose in an ambiguous setting. Our Bayesian framework allows us to perform disambiguation in a principled manner by including latent space priors which incorporate the dynamic nature of the data.

We consider composite loss functions for multiclass prediction comprising a proper (i.e., Fisher-consistent) loss over probability distributions and an inverse link function. We establish conditions for their (strong) convexity and explore the implications. We also show how the separation of concerns afforded by using this composite representation allows for the design of families of losses with the same Bayes risk.

Online sequence prediction is the problem of predicting the next element of a sequence given previous elements. This problem has been extensively studied in the context of individual sequence prediction, where no prior assumptions are made on the origin of the sequence. Individual sequence prediction algorithms work quite well for long sequences, where the algorithm has enough time to learn the temporal structure of the sequence. However, they might give poor predictions for short sequences. A possible remedy is to rely on the general model of prediction with expert advice, where the learner has access to a set of $r$ experts, each of which makes its own predictions on the sequence. It is well known that it is possible to predict almost as well as the best expert if the sequence length is order of $\log(r)$. But, without firm prior knowledge on the problem, it is not clear how to choose a small set of {\em good} experts. In this paper we describe and analyze a new algorithm that learns a good set of experts using a training set of previously observed sequences. We demonstrate the merits of our approach by applying it on the task of click prediction on the web.

This paper revisits the problem of analyzing multiple ratings given by different judges. Different from previous work that focuses on distilling the true labels from noisy crowdsourcing ratings, we emphasize gaining diagnostic insights into our in-house well-trained judges. We generalize the well-known DawidSkene model (Dawid & Skene, 1979) to a spectrum of probabilistic models under the same "TrueLabel + Confusion" paradigm, and show that our proposed hierarchical Bayesian model, called HybridConfusion, consistently outperforms DawidSkene on both synthetic and real-world data sets.

Model-based Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) allows a found formalization of the problem of acting optimally while facing an unknown environment, i.e., avoiding the exploration-exploitation dilemma. However, algorithms explicitly addressing BRL suffer from such a combinatorial explosion that a large body of work relies on heuristic algorithms. This paper introduces BOLT, a simple and (almost) deterministic heuristic algorithm for BRL which is optimistic about the transition function. We analyze BOLT's sample complexity, and show that under certain parameters, the algorithm is near-optimal in the Bayesian sense with high probability. Then, experimental results highlight the key differences of this method compared to previous work.

When searching for characteristic subpatterns in potentially noisy graph data, it appears self-evident that having multiple observations would be better than having just one. However, it turns out that the inconsistencies introduced when different graph instances have different edge sets pose a serious challenge. In this work we address this challenge for the problem of finding maximum weighted cliques. We introduce the concept of most persistent soft-clique. This is subset of vertices, that 1) is almost fully or at least densely connected, 2) occurs in all or almost all graph instances, and 3) has the maximum weight. We present a measure of clique-ness, that essentially counts the number of edge missing to make a subset of vertices into a clique. With this measure, we show that the problem of finding the most persistent soft-clique problem can be cast either as: a) a max-min two person game optimization problem, or b) a min-min soft margin optimization problem. Both formulations lead to the same solution when using a partial Lagrangian method to solve the optimization problems. By experiments on synthetic data and on real social network data, we show that the proposed method is able to reliably find soft cliques in graph data, even if that is distorted by random noise or unreliable observations.

Answer Set Programming (ASP) is a well-established paradigm of declarative programming in close relationship with other declarative formalisms such as SAT Modulo Theories, Constraint Handling Rules, FO(.), PDDL and many others. Since its first informal editions, ASP systems have been compared in the now well-established ASP Competition. The Third (Open) ASP Competition, as the sequel to the ASP Competitions Series held at the University of Potsdam in Germany (2006-2007) and at the University of Leuven in Belgium in 2009, took place at the University of Calabria (Italy) in the first half of 2011. Participants competed on a pre-selected collection of benchmark problems, taken from a variety of domains as well as real world applications. The Competition ran on two tracks: the Model and Solve (M&S) Track, based on an open problem encoding, and open language, and open to any kind of system based on a declarative specification paradigm; and the System Track, run on the basis of fixed, public problem encodings, written in a standard ASP language. This paper discusses the format of the Competition and the rationale behind it, then reports the results for both tracks. Comparison with the second ASP competition and state-of-the-art solutions for some of the benchmark domains is eventually discussed. To appear in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP).

Positive definite operator-valued kernels generalize the well-known notion of reproducing kernels, and are naturally adapted to multi-output learning situations. This paper addresses the problem of learning a finite linear combination of infinite-dimensional operator-valued kernels which are suitable for extending functional data analysis methods to nonlinear contexts. We study this problem in the case of kernel ridge regression for functional responses with an lr-norm constraint on the combination coefficients. The resulting optimization problem is more involved than those of multiple scalar-valued kernel learning since operator-valued kernels pose more technical and theoretical issues. We propose a multiple operator-valued kernel learning algorithm based on solving a system of linear operator equations by using a block coordinatedescent procedure. We experimentally validate our approach on a functional regression task in the context of finger movement prediction in brain-computer interfaces.

We consider conditions that allow us to find an optimal strategy for sequential decisions from a given data situation. For the case where all interventions are unconditional (atomic), identifiability has been discussed by Pearl & Robins (1995). We argue here that an optimal strategy must be conditional, i.e. take the information available at each decision point into account. We show that the identification of an optimal sequential decision strategy is more restrictive, in the sense that conditional interventions might not always be identified when atomic interventions are. We further demonstrate that a simple graphical criterion for the identifiability of an optimal strategy can be given.