We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where an underlying causal model can be inferred. This has implications for popular scenarios such as covariate shift, concept drift, transfer learning and semi-supervised learning. We argue that causal knowledge may facilitate some approaches for a given problem, and rule out others. In particular, we formulate a hypothesis for when semi-supervised learning can help, and corroborate it with empirical results.

Natural image statistics exhibit hierarchical dependencies across multiple scales. Representing such prior knowledge in non-factorial latent tree models can boost performance of image denoising, inpainting, deconvolution or reconstruction substantially, beyond standard factorial "sparse" methodology. We derive a large scale approximate Bayesian inference algorithm for linear models with non-factorial (latent tree-structured) scale mixture priors. Experimental results on a range of denoising and inpainting problems demonstrate substantially improved performance compared to MAP estimation or to inference with factorial priors.

We introduce the nonparametric metadata dependent relational (NMDR) model, a Bayesian nonparametric stochastic block model for network data. The NMDR allows the entities associated with each node to have mixed membership in an unbounded collection of latent communities. Learned regression models allow these memberships to depend on, and be predicted from, arbitrary node metadata. We develop efficient MCMC algorithms for learning NMDR models from partially observed node relationships. Retrospective MCMC methods allow our sampler to work directly with the infinite stick-breaking representation of the NMDR, avoiding the need for finite truncations. Our results demonstrate recovery of useful latent communities from real-world social and ecological networks, and the usefulness of metadata in link prediction tasks.

Locally adapted parameterizations of a model (such as locally weighted regression) are expressive but often suffer from high variance. We describe an approach for reducing the variance, based on the idea of estimating simultaneously a transformed space for the model, as well as locally adapted parameterizations in this new space. We present a new problem formulation that captures this idea and illustrate it in the important context of time varying models. We develop an algorithm for learning a set of bases for approximating a time varying sparse network; each learned basis constitutes an archetypal sparse network structure. We also provide an extension for learning task-driven bases. We present empirical results on synthetic data sets, as well as on a BCI EEG classification task.

We consider the problem of learning the optimal action-value function in the discounted-reward Markov decision processes (MDPs). We prove a new PAC bound on the sample-complexity of model-based value iteration algorithm in the presence of the generative model, which indicates that for an MDP with N state-action pairs and the discount factor \gamma\in[0,1) only O(N\log(N/\delta)/((1-\gamma)^3\epsilon^2)) samples are required to find an \epsilon-optimal estimation of the action-value function with the probability 1-\delta. We also prove a matching lower bound of \Theta (N\log(N/\delta)/((1-\gamma)^3\epsilon^2)) on the sample complexity of estimating the optimal action-value function by every RL algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first matching result on the sample complexity of estimating the optimal (action-) value function in which the upper bound matches the lower bound of RL in terms of N, \epsilon, \delta and 1/(1-\gamma). Also, both our lower bound and our upper bound significantly improve on the state-of-the-art in terms of 1/(1-\gamma).

Functional neuroimaging can measure the brain?s response to an external stimulus. It is used to perform brain mapping: identifying from these observations the brain regions involved. This problem can be cast into a linear supervised learning task where the neuroimaging data are used as predictors for the stimulus. Brain mapping is then seen as a support recovery problem. On functional MRI (fMRI) data, this problem is particularly challenging as i) the number of samples is small due to limited acquisition time and ii) the variables are strongly correlated. We propose to overcome these difficulties using sparse regression models over new variables obtained by clustering of the original variables. The use of randomization techniques, e.g. bootstrap samples, and clustering of the variables improves the recovery properties of sparse methods. We demonstrate the benefit of our approach on an extensive simulation study as well as two fMRI datasets.

In this paper we propose an algorithm that builds sparse decision DAGs (directed acyclic graphs) from a list of base classifiers provided by an external learning method such as AdaBoost. The basic idea is to cast the DAG design task as a Markov decision process. Each instance can decide to use or to skip each base classifier, based on the current state of the classifier being built. The result is a sparse decision DAG where the base classifiers are selected in a data-dependent way. The method has a single hyperparameter with a clear semantics of controlling the accuracy/speed trade-off. The algorithm is competitive with state-of-the-art cascade detectors on three object-detection benchmarks, and it clearly outperforms them when there is a small number of base classifiers. Unlike cascades, it is also readily applicable for multi-class classification. Using the multi-class setup, we show on a benchmark web page ranking data set that we can significantly improve the decision speed without harming the performance of the ranker.

In this paper we relate the partition function to the max-statistics of random variables. In particular, we provide a novel framework for approximating and bounding the partition function using MAP inference on randomly perturbed models. As a result, we can use efficient MAP solvers such as graph-cuts to evaluate the corresponding partition function. We show that our method excels in the typical "high signal - high coupling" regime that results in ragged energy landscapes difficult for alternative approaches.

In this paper, we review the problem of matrix completion and expose its intimate relations with algebraic geometry, combinatorics and graph theory. We present the first necessary and sufficient combinatorial conditions for matrices of arbitrary rank to be identifiable from a set of matrix entries, yielding theoretical constraints and new algorithms for the problem of matrix completion. We conclude by algorithmically evaluating the tightness of the given conditions and algorithms for practically relevant matrix sizes, showing that the algebraic-combinatoric approach can lead to improvements over state-of-the-art matrix completion methods.

We investigate the problem of modeling symbolic sequences of polyphonic music in a completely general piano-roll representation. We introduce a probabilistic model based on distribution estimators conditioned on a recurrent neural network that is able to discover temporal dependencies in high-dimensional sequences. Our approach outperforms many traditional models of polyphonic music on a variety of realistic datasets. We show how our musical language model can serve as a symbolic prior to improve the accuracy of polyphonic transcription.