We consider the class of optimization problems arising from computationally intensive L1-regularized M-estimators, where the function or gradient values are very expensive to compute. A particular instance of interest is the L1-regularized MLE for learning Conditional Random Fields (CRFs), which are a popular class of statistical models for varied structured prediction problems such as sequence labeling, alignment, and classification with label taxonomy. L1-regularized MLEs for CRFs are particularly expensive to optimize since computing the gradient values requires an expensive inference step. In this work, we propose the use of a carefully constructed proximal quasi-Newton algorithm for such computationally intensive M-estimation problems, where we employ an aggressive active set selection technique. In a key contribution of the paper, we show that our proximal quasi-Newton algorithm is provably super-linearly convergent, even in the absence of strong convexity, by leveraging a restricted variant of strong convexity. In our experiments, the proposed algorithm converges considerably faster than current state-of-the-art on the problems of sequence labeling and hierarchical classification.

Most work on sequential learning assumes a fixed set of actions that are available all the time. However, in practice, actions can consist of picking subsets of readings from sensors that may break from time to time, road segments that can be blocked or goods that are out of stock. In this paper we study learning algorithms that are able to deal with stochastic availability of such unreliable composite actions. We propose and analyze algorithms based on the Follow-The-Perturbed-Leader prediction method for several learning settings differing in the feedback provided to the learner. Our algorithms rely on a novel loss estimation technique that we call Counting Asleep Times. We deliver regret bounds for our algorithms for the previously studied full information and (semi-)bandit settings, as well as a natural middle point between the two that we call the restricted information setting. A special consequence of our results is a significant improvement of the best known performance guarantees achieved by an efficient algorithm for the sleeping bandit problem with stochastic availability. Finally, we evaluate our algorithms empirically and show their improvement over the known approaches.

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been adjusted for. We introduce a novel approach for estimating causal effects that exploits observational conditional independencies to suggest ``weak'' paths in a unknown causal graph. The widely used faithfulness condition of Spirtes et al. is relaxed to allow for varying degrees of ``path cancellations'' that will imply conditional independencies but do not rule out the existence of confounding causal paths. The outcome is a posterior distribution over bounds on the average causal effect via a linear programming approach and Bayesian inference. We claim this approach should be used in regular practice to complement other default tools in observational studies.

Neural responses in visual cortex are influenced by visual stimuli and by ongoing spiking activity in local circuits. An important challenge in computational neuroscience is to develop models that can account for both of these features in large multi-neuron recordings and to reveal how stimulus representations interact with and depend on cortical dynamics. Here we introduce a statistical model of neural population activity that integrates a nonlinear receptive field model with a latent dynamical model of ongoing cortical activity. This model captures the temporal dynamics, effective network connectivity in large population recordings, and correlations due to shared stimulus drive as well as common noise. Moreover, because the nonlinear stimulus inputs are mixed by the ongoing dynamics, the model can account for a relatively large number of idiosyncratic receptive field shapes with a small number of nonlinear inputs to a low-dimensional latent dynamical model. We introduce a fast estimation method using online expectation maximization with Laplace approximations. Inference scales linearly in both population size and recording duration. We apply this model to multi-channel recordings from primary visual cortex and show that it accounts for a large number of individual neural receptive fields using a small number of nonlinear inputs and a low-dimensional dynamical model.

We study online combinatorial decision problems, where one must make sequential decisions in some combinatorial space without knowing in advance the cost of decisions on each trial; the goal is to minimize the total regret over some sequence of trials relative to the best fixed decision in hindsight. Such problems have been studied mostly in settings where decisions are represented by Boolean vectors and costs are linear in this representation. Here we study a general setting where costs may be linear in any suitable low-dimensional vector representation of elements of the decision space. We give a general algorithm for such problems that we call low-dimensional online mirror descent (LDOMD); the algorithm generalizes both the Component Hedge algorithm of Koolen et al. (2010), and a recent algorithm of Suehiro et al. (2012). Our study offers a unification and generalization of previous work, and emphasizes the role of the convex polytope arising from the vector representation of the decision space; while Boolean representations lead to 0-1 polytopes, more general vector representations lead to more general polytopes. We study several examples of both types of polytopes. Finally, we demonstrate the benefit of having a general framework for such problems via an application to an online transportation problem; the associated transportation polytopes generalize the Birkhoff polytope of doubly stochastic matrices, and the resulting algorithm generalizes the PermELearn algorithm of Helmbold and Warmuth (2009).

While topic models can discover patterns of word usage in large corpora, it is difficult to meld this unsupervised structure with noisy, human-provided labels, especially when the label space is large. In this paper, we present a model-Label to Hierarchy (L2H)-that can induce a hierarchy of user-generated labels and the topics associated with those labels from a set of multi-labeled documents. The model is robust enough to account for missing labels from untrained, disparate annotators and provide an interpretable summary of an otherwise unwieldy label set. We show empirically the effectiveness of L2H in predicting held-out words and labels for unseen documents.

Blind source separation problems are difficult because they are inherently unidentifiable, yet the entire goal is to identify meaningful sources. We introduce a way of incorporating domain knowledge into this problem, called signal aggregate constraints (SACs). SACs encourage the total signal for each of the unknown sources to be close to a specified value. This is based on the observation that the total signal often varies widely across the unknown sources, and we often have a good idea of what total values to expect. We incorporate SACs into an additive factorial hidden Markov model (AFHMM) to formulate the energy disaggregation problems where only one mixture signal is assumed to be observed. A convex quadratic program for approximate inference is employed for recovering those source signals. On a real-world energy disaggregation data set, we show that the use of SACs dramatically improves the original AFHMM, and significantly improves over a recent state-of-the art approach.

A determinantal point process (DPP) is a probabilistic model of set diversity compactly parameterized by a positive semi-definite kernel matrix. To fit a DPP to a given task, we would like to learn the entries of its kernel matrix by maximizing the log-likelihood of the available data. However, log-likelihood is non-convex in the entries of the kernel matrix, and this learning problem is conjectured to be NP-hard. Thus, previous work has instead focused on more restricted convex learning settings: learning only a single weight for each row of the kernel matrix, or learning weights for a linear combination of DPPs with fixed kernel matrices. In this work we propose a novel algorithm for learning the full kernel matrix. By changing the kernel parameterization from matrix entries to eigenvalues and eigenvectors, and then lower-bounding the likelihood in the manner of expectation-maximization algorithms, we obtain an effective optimization procedure. We test our method on a real-world product recommendation task, and achieve relative gains of up to 16.5% in test log-likelihood compared to the naive approach of maximizing likelihood by projected gradient ascent on the entries of the kernel matrix.

We present the first provably sublinear time hashing algorithm for approximate \emph{Maximum Inner Product Search} (MIPS). Searching with (un-normalized) inner product as the underlying similarity measure is a known difficult problem and finding hashing schemes for MIPS was considered hard. While the existing Locality Sensitive Hashing (LSH) framework is insufficient for solving MIPS, in this paper we extend the LSH framework to allow asymmetric hashing schemes. Our proposal is based on a key observation that the problem of finding maximum inner products, after independent asymmetric transformations, can be converted into the problem of approximate near neighbor search in classical settings. This key observation makes efficient sublinear hashing scheme for MIPS possible. Under the extended asymmetric LSH (ALSH) framework, this paper provides an example of explicit construction of provably fast hashing scheme for MIPS. Our proposed algorithm is simple and easy to implement. The proposed hashing scheme leads to significant computational savings over the two popular conventional LSH schemes: (i) Sign Random Projection (SRP) and (ii) hashing based on $p$-stable distributions for $L_2$ norm (L2LSH), in the collaborative filtering task of item recommendations on Netflix and Movielens (10M) datasets.

Most standard algorithms for prediction with expert advice depend on a parameter called the learning rate. This learning rate needs to be large enough to fit the data well, but small enough to prevent overfitting. For the exponential weights algorithm, a sequence of prior work has established theoretical guarantees for higher and higher data-dependent tunings of the learning rate, which allow for increasingly aggressive learning. But in practice such theoretical tunings often still perform worse (as measured by their regret) than ad hoc tuning with an even higher learning rate. To close the gap between theory and practice we introduce an approach to learn the learning rate. Up to a factor that is at most (poly)logarithmic in the number of experts and the inverse of the learning rate, our method performs as well as if we would know the empirically best learning rate from a large range that includes both conservative small values and values that are much higher than those for which formal guarantees were previously available. Our method employs a grid of learning rates, yet runs in linear time regardless of the size of the grid.