In the context of soccer robotics, ball dribbling is a complex behavior where a robot player attempts to maneuver the ball in a very controlled way, while moving towards a desired target. To learn when and how to modify the robot’s velocity vector is a complex problem, hardly solvable in an effective way with methods based on identification of the system dynamics and/or kinematics and mathematical models. We propose a decentralized reinforcement learning strategy, where each component of the omnidirectional biped walk (𝑣𝑥,𝑣𝑦,𝑣𝜃) is learned in parallel with single-agents working in a multiagent task. Moreover, we propose an approach to accelerate the decentralized learning based on knowledge transfer from simple linear controllers. Obtained results are successful; with less human effort, and less required designer knowledge, the decentralized reinforcement learning scheme shows better performances than the current dribbling engine used by UChile Robotics Team in the SPL robot soccer competitions. The proposed decentralized rein- forcement learning scheme achieves asymptotic performance after 1500 episodes and can be accelerated up to 70% by using our approach to share actions.

Auction mechanisms are very well known methods to allocate tasks when several agents are involved. Particularly, multi-attribute auctions are a special mechanism that allows the consideration of task attributes other than prices, such as delivery time or energy consumptions. Incentive compatible mechanisms encourage agents to reveal the attributes which agents estimate truthful, however, these mechanisms by themselves cannot know if such estimations are reliable or not due to uncertainty. Under such circumstances, trust could complement incentive compatibility reducing the risk of losses by the auctioneer. The use of trust in auctions is a well-studied problem; however, most of the works in the literature focus on how to model trust rather on how trust is used in the mechanism. Thus, this paper proposes an easy and systematic way to include a multi-faceted model of trust into multi-attribute auctions. Conversely to other previous works where trust is only used in the winner determination problem, the presented approach uses trust both in deciding the winner of the auction and in the payment to the corresponding bidder. According to the results obtained from the experimentation, the use of trust following the methodology presented in this paper highly reduces the number of winner bids from unreliable bidders and, therefore, the number of tasks executed in worse conditions than the agreed. Complementary, this paper proposes a new trust adaptation method which consists of increasing or decreasing the trust value (depending on whether the task is executed properly or not) according to a simple mathematical function with asymptotes on 0 and 1. This model does not present the rigidity problem present in other models of the literature when it comes to agents that have inconstant performances.

In open multi-agent systems, often, agents interact with each other to meet their objectives. Trust is, therefore, considered essential to make such interactions useful. However, trust is a complex, multifaceted concept and includes more than just evaluating other’s honesty. Many trust evaluation models have been proposed and implemented in different areas; most of them focused on creating algorithms for trusters to model the honesty of trustees in order to make effective decisions about which trustees to select. However, slight consideration is paid to trust establishment. This work describes a trust establishment model that goes beyond trust evaluation to outline actions to guide trustees (instead of trustors). The model uses a multicriteria method for measuring and analysing needs of trusters and evaluates the satisfaction level of trusters based on their values and expressed preferences. Using the feedback from trusters, trustees attempt to modify their behavior in order to achieve higher confidence levels as part of their plans to be selected as partners of other agents in the community for future interactions. Simulation results indicate that trustees can become more trusted if they adjust their behaviour based of satisfaction feedback from trusters.

The task of computing approximate Nash equilibria in large zero-sum extensive-form games has received a tremendous amount of attention due mainly to the Annual Computer Poker Competition. Immediately after its inception, two competing and seemingly different approaches emerged---one an application of no-regret online learning, the other a sophisticated gradient method applied to a convex-concave saddle-point formulation. Since then, both approaches have grown in relative isolation with advancements on one side not effecting the other. In this paper, we rectify this by dissecting and, in a sense, unify the two views.

Although techniques for finding Nash equilibria in extensive form games have become more powerful in recent years, many games that model real world interactions remain too large to be solved directly. The current approach is to create a smaller abstracted game, allowing the computation of an optimal solution. The strategy can then be used in the original game. Considering public information to create the abstraction can be strategically important, yet very few of the previous abstraction algorithms specifically consider public information or use an expert approach. In this paper, we show that the public information can be crucial, and we present a new, automatic technique for abstracting the public state space. We also present an experimental evaluation in the domain of Texas Hold’em poker and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art abstraction algorithms.

A unique behavior of humans is modifying one’s unobservable behavior based on the reaction of others for cooperation. We used a card game called Hanabi as an evaluation task of imitating human reflective intelligence with artificial intelligence. Hanabi is a cooperative card game with incomplete information. A player cooperates with an opponent in building several card sets constructed with the same color and ordered numbers. However, like a blind man's bluff, each player sees the cards of all other players except his/her own. Also, communication between players is restricted to information about the same numbers and colors, and the player is required to read his/his opponent's intention with the opponent's hand, estimate his/her cards with incomplete information, and play one of them for building a set. We compared human play with several simulated strategies. The results indicate that the strategy with feedbacks from simulated opponent's viewpoints achieves more score than other strategies.

Generalized Additive Models (GAM) are a widely popular class of regression models to forecast electricity demand, due to their high accuracy, flexibility and interpretability. However, the residuals of the fitted GAM are typically heteroscedastic and leptokurtic caused by the nature of energy data. In this paper we propose a novel approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance of the GAM residuals, which we call the GAM2 algorithm. It allows utility companies and network operators to assess the uncertainty of future electricity demand and incorporate it into their planning processes. The basic idea of our algorithm is to apply another GAM to the squared residuals to explain the dependence of uncertainty on exogenous variables. Empirical evidence shows that the residuals rescaled by the estimated conditional variance are approximately normal. We combine our modeling approach with online learning algorithms that adjust for dynamic changes in the distributions of demand. We illustrate our method by a case study on data from RTE, the operator of the French transmission grid.

Bike sharing systems consist of a fleet of bikes placed in a network of docking stations. These bikes can then be rented and returned to any of the docking stations after usage. Predicting unrealized bike demand at locations currently without bike stations is important for effectively designing and expanding bike sharing systems. We predict pairwise bike demand for New York City’s Citi Bike system. Since the system is driven by daily commuters we focus only on the morning rush hours between 7:00 AM to 11:00 AM during weekdays. We use taxi usage, weather and spatial variables as covariates to predict bike demand, and further analyze the influence of precipitation and day of week. We show that aggregating stations in neighborhoods can substantially improve predictions. The presented model can assist planners by predicting bike demand at a macroscopic level, between pairs of neighborhoods.

While human behavior models based on repeated Stackelberg games have been proposed for domains such as "wildlife crime" where there is repeated interaction between the defender and the adversary, there has been no empirical study with human subjects to show the effectiveness of such models. This paper presents an initial study based on extensive human subject experiments with participants on Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT). Our findings include: (i) attackers may view the defender’s coverage probability in a non-linear fashion; specifically it follows an S-shaped curve, and (ii) there are significant losses in defender utility when strategies generated by existing models are deployed in repeated Stackelberg game settings against human subjects.

For a sustainable integration of wind power into the electricity grid, a precise prediction method is required. In this work, we investigate the use of heterogeneous machine learning ensembles for wind power prediction. We first analyze homogeneous ensemble regressors that make use of a single base algorithm and compare decision trees to k-nearest neighbors and support vector regression. As next step, we construct heterogeneous ensembles that make use of multiple base algorithms and benefit from a gain of diversity of the weak predictors. In the experimental evaluation, we show that a combination of decision trees and support vector regression outperforms state-of-the-art predictors (improvements of up to 37% compared to support vector regression) as well as homogeneous ensembles while requiring a shorter runtime (speed-ups from 1.60x to 8.78x). The experiments are based on large wind time series data from simulations and real measurements.