Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribution a probabilistic model for an idealized dark matter localization problem is described. We first derive the probabilistic model for the inference of dark matter locations and masses, and then show how this model can be implemented using BUGS and Infer.NET, two software systems for probabilistic programming. Finally, the different capabilities of both systems are discussed. The presented dark matter model includes mainly non-conjugate factors, thus, it is difficult to implement this model with Infer.NET.

We study the power of different types of adaptive (nonoblivious) adversaries in the setting of prediction with expert advice, under both full-information and bandit feedback. We measure the player's performance using a new notion of regret, also known as policy regret, which better captures the adversary's adaptiveness to the player's behavior. In a setting where losses are allowed to drift, we characterize ---in a nearly complete manner--- the power of adaptive adversaries with bounded memories and switching costs. In particular, we show that with switching costs, the attainable rate with bandit feedback is $\widetilde{\Theta}(T^{2/3})$. Interestingly, this rate is significantly worse than the $\Theta(\sqrt{T})$ rate attainable with switching costs in the full-information case. Via a novel reduction from experts to bandits, we also show that a bounded memory adversary can force $\widetilde{\Theta}(T^{2/3})$ regret even in the full information case, proving that switching costs are easier to control than bounded memory adversaries. Our lower bounds rely on a new stochastic adversary strategy that generates loss processes with strong dependencies.

Major advances in Question Answering technology were needed for IBM Watson to play Jeopardy! at championship level -- the show requires rapid-fire answers to challenging natural language questions, broad general knowledge, high precision, and accurate confidence estimates. In addition, Jeopardy! features four types of decision making carrying great strategic importance: (1) Daily Double wagering; (2) Final Jeopardy wagering; (3) selecting the next square when in control of the board; (4) deciding whether to attempt to answer, i.e., "buzz in." Using sophisticated strategies for these decisions, that properly account for the game state and future event probabilities, can significantly boost a player's overall chances to win, when compared with simple "rule of thumb" strategies. This article presents our approach to developing Watson's game-playing strategies, comprising development of a faithful simulation model, and then using learning and Monte-Carlo methods within the simulator to optimize Watson's strategic decision-making. After giving a detailed description of each of our game-strategy algorithms, we then focus in particular on validating the accuracy of the simulator's predictions, and documenting performance improvements using our methods. Quantitative performance benefits are shown with respect to both simple heuristic strategies, and actual human contestant performance in historical episodes. We further extend our analysis of human play to derive a number of valuable and counterintuitive examples illustrating how human contestants may improve their performance on the show.

In data analysis, latent variables play a central role because they help provide powerful insights into a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from biological to human sciences. The latent tree model, a particular type of probabilistic graphical models, deserves attention. Its simple structure - a tree - allows simple and efficient inference, while its latent variables capture complex relationships. In the past decade, the latent tree model has been subject to significant theoretical and methodological developments. In this review, we propose a comprehensive study of this model. First we summarize key ideas underlying the model. Second we explain how it can be efficiently learned from data. Third we illustrate its use within three types of applications: latent structure discovery, multidimensional clustering, and probabilistic inference. Finally, we conclude and give promising directions for future researches in this field.

We introduce a novel class of rotation invariants of two dimensional curves based on iterated integrals. The invariants we present are in some sense complete and we describe an algorithm to calculate them, giving explicit computations up to order six. We present an application to online (stroke-trajectory based) character recognition. This seems to be the first time in the literature that the use of iterated integrals of a curve is proposed for (invariant) feature extraction in machine learning applications.

We propose a reinforcement learning solution to the \emph{soccer dribbling task}, a scenario in which a soccer agent has to go from the beginning to the end of a region keeping possession of the ball, as an adversary attempts to gain possession. While the adversary uses a stationary policy, the dribbler learns the best action to take at each decision point. After defining meaningful variables to represent the state space, and high-level macro-actions to incorporate domain knowledge, we describe our application of the reinforcement learning algorithm \emph{Sarsa} with CMAC for function approximation. Our experiments show that, after the training period, the dribbler is able to accomplish its task against a strong adversary around 58% of the time.

We propose a modified $\chi^{\beta}$-divergence, give some of its properties, and show that this leads to the definition of a generalized Fisher information. We give generalized Cram\'er-Rao inequalities, involving this Fisher information, an extension of the Fisher information matrix, and arbitrary norms and power of the estimation error. In the case of a location parameter, we obtain new characterizations of the generalized $q$-Gaussians, for instance as the distribution with a given moment that minimizes the generalized Fisher information. Finally we indicate how the generalized Fisher information can lead to new uncertainty relations.

In this communication, we describe some interrelations between generalized $q$-entropies and a generalized version of Fisher information. In information theory, the de Bruijn identity links the Fisher information and the derivative of the entropy. We show that this identity can be extended to generalized versions of entropy and Fisher information. More precisely, a generalized Fisher information naturally pops up in the expression of the derivative of the Tsallis entropy. This generalized Fisher information also appears as a special case of a generalized Fisher information for estimation problems. Indeed, we derive here a new Cram\'er-Rao inequality for the estimation of a parameter, which involves a generalized form of Fisher information. This generalized Fisher information reduces to the standard Fisher information as a particular case. In the case of a translation parameter, the general Cram\'er-Rao inequality leads to an inequality for distributions which is saturated by generalized $q$-Gaussian distributions. These generalized $q$-Gaussians are important in several areas of physics and mathematics. They are known to maximize the $q$-entropies subject to a moment constraint. The Cram\'er-Rao inequality shows that the generalized $q$-Gaussians also minimize the generalized Fisher information among distributions with a fixed moment. Similarly, the generalized $q$-Gaussians also minimize the generalized Fisher information among distributions with a given $q$-entropy.

Unsupervised estimation of latent variable models is a fundamental problem central to numerous applications of machine learning and statistics. This work presents a principled approach for estimating broad classes of such models, including probabilistic topic models and latent linear Bayesian networks, using only second-order observed moments. The sufficient conditions for identifiability of these models are primarily based on weak expansion constraints on the topic-word matrix, for topic models, and on the directed acyclic graph, for Bayesian networks. Because no assumptions are made on the distribution among the latent variables, the approach can handle arbitrary correlations among the topics or latent factors. In addition, a tractable learning method via $\ell_1$ optimization is proposed and studied in numerical experiments.

In this contribution we describe an approach to evolve composite covariance functions for Gaussian processes using genetic programming. A critical aspect of Gaussian processes and similar kernel-based models such as SVM is, that the covariance function should be adapted to the modeled data. Frequently, the squared exponential covariance function is used as a default. However, this can lead to a misspecified model, which does not fit the data well. In the proposed approach we use a grammar for the composition of covariance functions and genetic programming to search over the space of sentences that can be derived from the grammar. We tested the proposed approach on synthetic data from two-dimensional test functions, and on the Mauna Loa CO2 time series. The results show, that our approach is feasible, finding covariance functions that perform much better than a default covariance function. For the CO2 data set a composite covariance function is found, that matches the performance of a hand-tuned covariance function.