Given data sampled from a number of variables, one is often interested in the underlying causal relationships in the form of a directed acyclic graph. In the general case, without interventions on some of the variables it is only possible to identify the graph up to its Markov equivalence class. However, in some situations one can find the true causal graph just from observational data, for example in structural equation models with additive noise and nonlinear edge functions. Most current methods for achieving this rely on nonparametric independence tests. One of the problems there is that the null hypothesis is independence, which is what one would like to get evidence for. We take a different approach in our work by using a penalized likelihood as a score for model selection. This is practically feasible in many settings and has the advantage of yielding a natural ranking of the candidate models. When making smoothness assumptions on the probability density space, we prove consistency of the penalized maximum likelihood estimator. We also present empirical results for simulated scenarios and real two-dimensional data sets (cause-effect pairs) where we obtain similar results as other state-of-the-art methods.

This paper presents evidence for the idea that much of artificial intelligence, human perception and cognition, mainstream computing, and mathematics, may be understood as compression of information via the matching and unification of patterns. This is the basis for the "SP theory of intelligence", outlined in the paper and fully described elsewhere. Relevant evidence may be seen: in empirical support for the SP theory; in some advantages of information compression (IC) in terms of biology and engineering; in our use of shorthands and ordinary words in language; in how we merge successive views of any one thing; in visual recognition; in binocular vision; in visual adaptation; in how we learn lexical and grammatical structures in language; and in perceptual constancies. IC via the matching and unification of patterns may be seen in both computing and mathematics: in IC via equations; in the matching and unification of names; in the reduction or removal of redundancy from unary numbers; in the workings of Post's Canonical System and the transition function in the Universal Turing Machine; in the way computers retrieve information from memory; in systems like Prolog; and in the query-by-example technique for information retrieval. The chunking-with-codes technique for IC may be seen in the use of named functions to avoid repetition of computer code. The schema-plus-correction technique may be seen in functions with parameters and in the use of classes in object-oriented programming. And the run-length coding technique may be seen in multiplication, in division, and in several other devices in mathematics and computing. The SP theory resolves the apparent paradox of "decompression by compression". And computing and cognition as IC is compatible with the uses of redundancy in such things as backup copies to safeguard data and understanding speech in a noisy environment.

In the last twenty-five years (1990-2014), algorithmic advances in integer optimization combined with hardware improvements have resulted in an astonishing 200 billion factor speedup in solving Mixed Integer Optimization (MIO) problems. We present a MIO approach for solving the classical best subset selection problem of choosing $k$ out of $p$ features in linear regression given $n$ observations. We develop a discrete extension of modern first order continuous optimization methods to find high quality feasible solutions that we use as warm starts to a MIO solver that finds provably optimal solutions. The resulting algorithm (a) provides a solution with a guarantee on its suboptimality even if we terminate the algorithm early, (b) can accommodate side constraints on the coefficients of the linear regression and (c) extends to finding best subset solutions for the least absolute deviation loss function. Using a wide variety of synthetic and real datasets, we demonstrate that our approach solves problems with $n$ in the 1000s and $p$ in the 100s in minutes to provable optimality, and finds near optimal solutions for $n$ in the 100s and $p$ in the 1000s in minutes. We also establish via numerical experiments that the MIO approach performs better than {\texttt {Lasso}} and other popularly used sparse learning procedures, in terms of achieving sparse solutions with good predictive power.

As software systems are getting increasingly connected, there is a need for equipping nonmonotonic logic programs with access to external sources that are possibly remote and may contain information in heterogeneous formats. To cater for this need, HEX programs were designed as a generalization of answer set programs with an API style interface that allows to access arbitrary external sources, providing great flexibility. Efficient evaluation of such programs however is challenging, and it requires to interleave external computation and model building; to decide when to switch between these tasks is difficult, and existing approaches have limited scalability in many real-world application scenarios. We present a new approach for the evaluation of logic programs with external source access, which is based on a configurable framework for dividing the non-ground program into possibly overlapping smaller parts called evaluation units. The latter will be processed by interleaving external evaluation and model building using an evaluation graph and a model graph, respectively, and by combining intermediate results. Experiments with our prototype implementation show a significant improvement compared to previous approaches. While designed for HEX-programs, the new evaluation approach may be deployed to related rule-based formalisms as well.

We investigate model theoretic properties of XPath with data (in)equality tests over the class of data trees, i.e., the class of trees where each node contains a label from a finite alphabet and a data value from an infinite domain. We provide notions of (bi)simulations for XPpath logics containing the child, parent, ancestor and descendant axes to navigate the tree. We show that these notions precisely characterize the equivalence relation associated with each logic. We study formula complexity measures consisting of the number of nested axes and nested subformulas in a formula; these notions are akin to the notion of quantifier rank in first-order logic. We show characterization results for fine grained notions of equivalence and (bi)simulation that take into account these complexity measures. We also prove that positive fragments of these logics correspond to the formulas preserved under (non-symmetric) simulations. We show that the logic including the child axis is equivalent to the fragment of first-order logic invariant under the corresponding notion of bisimulation. If upward navigation is allowed the characterization fails but a weaker result can still be established. These results hold both over the class of possibly infinite data trees and over the class of finite data trees. Besides their intrinsic theoretical value, we argue that bi-simulations are useful tools to prove (non)expressivity results for the logics studied here, and we substantiate this claim with examples.

In this paper, we propose a single-agent modal logic framework for reasoning about goal-direct "knowing how" based on ideas from linguistics, philosophy, modal logic and automated planning. We first define a modal language to express "I know how to guarantee phi given psi" with a semantics not based on standard epistemic models but labelled transition systems that represent the agent's knowledge of his own abilities. A sound and complete proof system is given to capture the valid reasoning patterns about "knowing how" where the most important axiom suggests its compositional nature.

Designing a covariance function that represents the underlying correlation is a crucial step in modeling complex natural systems, such as climate models. Geospatial datasets at a global scale usually suffer from non-stationarity and non-uniformly smooth spatial boundaries. A Gaussian process regression using a non-stationary covariance function has shown promise for this task, as this covariance function adapts to the variable correlation structure of the underlying distribution. In this paper, we generalize the non-stationary covariance function to address the aforementioned global scale geospatial issues. We define this generalized covariance function as an intrinsic non-stationary covariance function, because it uses intrinsic statistics of the symmetric positive definite matrices to represent the characteristic length scale and, thereby, models the local stochastic process. Experiments on a synthetic and real dataset of relative sea level changes across the world demonstrate improvements in the error metrics for the regression estimates using our newly proposed approach.

We consider the university course timetabling problem, which is one of the most studied problems in educational timetabling. In particular, we focus our attention on the formulation known as the curriculum-based course timetabling problem, which has been tackled by many researchers and for which there are many available benchmarks. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we propose an effective and robust single-stage simulated annealing method for solving the problem. Secondly, we design and apply an extensive and statistically-principled methodology for the parameter tuning procedure. The outcome of this analysis is a methodology for modeling the relationship between search method parameters and instance features that allows us to set the parameters for unseen instances on the basis of a simple inspection of the instance itself. Using this methodology, our algorithm, despite its apparent simplicity, has been able to achieve high quality results on a set of popular benchmarks. A final contribution of the paper is a novel set of real-world instances, which could be used as a benchmark for future comparison.

We consider the correlated multiarmed bandit (MAB) problem in which the rewards associated with each arm are modeled by a multivariate Gaussian random variable, and we investigate the influence of the assumptions in the Bayesian prior on the performance of the upper credible limit (UCL) algorithm and a new correlated UCL algorithm. We rigorously characterize the influence of accuracy, confidence, and correlation scale in the prior on the decision-making performance of the algorithms. Our results show how priors and correlation structure can be leveraged to improve performance.

Spatio-temporal point process models play a central role in the analysis of spatially distributed systems in several disciplines. Yet, scalable inference remains computa- tionally challenging both due to the high resolution modelling generally required and the analytically intractable likelihood function. Here, we exploit the sparsity structure typical of (spatially) discretised log-Gaussian Cox process models by using approximate message-passing algorithms. The proposed algorithms scale well with the state dimension and the length of the temporal horizon with moderate loss in distributional accuracy. They hence provide a flexible and faster alternative to both non-linear filtering-smoothing type algorithms and to approaches that implement the Laplace method or expectation propagation on (block) sparse latent Gaussian models. We infer the parameters of the latent Gaussian model using a structured variational Bayes approach. We demonstrate the proposed framework on simulation studies with both Gaussian and point-process observations and use it to reconstruct the conflict intensity and dynamics in Afghanistan from the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary.