In this paper, we propose a new methodology based on the Negative Selection Algorithm that belongs to the field of Computational Intelligence, specifically, Artificial Immune Systems to identify takeover targets. Although considerable research based on customary statistical techniques and some contemporary Computational Intelligence techniques have been devoted to identify takeover targets, most of the existing studies are based upon multiple previous mergers and acquisitions. Contrary to previous research, the novelty of this proposal lies in its ability to suggest takeover targets for novice firms that are at the beginning of their merger and acquisition spree. We first discuss the theoretical perspective and then provide a case study with details for practical implementation, both capitalizing from unique generalization capabilities of artificial immune systems algorithms.

This paper advances a framework for modeling the component interactions between cognitive and social aspects of scientific creativity and technological innovation. Specifically, it aims to characterize Innovation Networks; those networks that involve the interplay of people, ideas and organizations to create new, technologically feasible, commercially-realizable products, processes and organizational structures. The tri-partite framework captures networks of ideas (Concept Level), people (Individual Level) and social structures (Social-Organizational Level) and the interactions between these levels. At the concept level, new ideas are the nodes that are created and linked, kept open for further investigation or closed if solved by actors at the individual or organizational levels. At the individual level, the nodes are actors linked by shared worldviews (based on shared professional, educational, experiential backgrounds) who are the builders of the concept level. At the social-organizational level, the nodes are organizations linked by common efforts on a given project (e.g., a company-university collaboration) that by virtue of their intellectual property or rules of governance constrain the actions of individuals (at the Individual Level) or ideas (at the Concept Level). After describing this framework and its implications we paint a number of scenarios to flesh out how it can be applied.

What are the cognitive after-effects of making a similarity judgement? What, cognitively, is left behind and what effect might these residues have on subsequent processing? In this paper, we probe for such after-effects using a visual search task, performed after a task in which pictures of real-world objects were compared. So, target objects were first presented in a comparison task (e.g., rate the similarity of this object to another) thus, presumably, modifying some of their features before asking people to visually search for the same object in complex scenes (with distractors and camouflaged backgrounds). As visual search is known to be influenced by the features of target objects, then any after-effects of the comparison task should be revealed in subsequent visual searches. Results showed that when people previously rated an object as being high on a scale (e.g., colour similarity or general similarity) then visual search is inhibited (slower RTs and more saccades in eye-tracking) relative to an object being rated as low in the same scale. There was also some evidence that different comparison tasks (e.g., compare on colour or compare on general similarity) have differential effects on visual search.

Why are some events more surprising than others? We propose that events that are more difficult to explain are those that are more surprising. The two experiments reported here test the impact of different event outcomes (Outcome-Type) and task demands (Task) on ratings of surprise for simple story scenarios. For the Outcome-Type variable, participants saw outcomes that were either known or less-known surprising outcomes for each scenario. For the Task variable, participants either answered comprehension questions or provided an explanation of the outcome. Outcome-Type reliably affected surprise judgments; known outcomes were rated as less surprising than less-known outcomes. Task also reliably affected surprise judgments; when people provided an explanation it lowered surprise judgments relative to simply answering comprehension questions. Both experiments thus provide evidence on this less-explored explanation aspect of surprise, specifically showing that ease of explanation is a key factor in determining the level of surprise experienced.

We study pathwise invariances of centred random fields that can be controlled through the covariance. A result involving composition operators is obtained in second-order settings, and we show that various path properties including additivity boil down to invariances of the covariance kernel. These results are extended to a broader class of operators in the Gaussian case, via the Lo\`eve isometry. Several covariance-driven pathwise invariances are illustrated, including fields with symmetric paths, centred paths, harmonic paths, or sparse paths. The proposed approach delivers a number of promising results and perspectives in Gaussian process regression.

Linear active-power-only DC power flow approximations are pervasive in the planning and control of power systems. However, these approximations fail to capture reactive power and voltage magnitudes, both of which are necessary in many applications to ensure voltage stability and AC power flow feasibility. This paper proposes linear-programming models (the LPAC models) that incorporate reactive power and voltage magnitudes in a linear power flow approximation. The LPAC models are built on a convex approximation of the cosine terms in the AC equations, as well as Taylor approximations of the remaining nonlinear terms. Experimental comparisons with AC solutions on a variety of standard IEEE and MatPower benchmarks show that the LPAC models produce accurate values for active and reactive power, phase angles, and voltage magnitudes. The potential benefits of the LPAC models are illustrated on two "proof-of-concept" studies in power restoration and capacitor placement.

The area under the ROC curve is widely used as a measure of performance of classification rules. However, it has recently been shown that the measure is fundamentally incoherent, in the sense that it treats the relative severities of misclassifications differently when different classifiers are used. To overcome this, Hand (2009) proposed the $H$ measure, which allows a given researcher to fix the distribution of relative severities to a classifier-independent setting on a given problem. This note extends the discussion, and proposes a modified standard distribution for the $H$ measure, which better matches the requirements of researchers, in particular those faced with heavily unbalanced datasets, the $Beta(\pi_1+1,\pi_0+1)$ distribution. [Preprint submitted at Pattern Recognition Letters]

Distributed Constraint Optimization (DCOP) is a powerful framework for representing and solving distributed combinatorial problems, where the variables of the problem are owned by different agents. Many multi-agent problems include constraints that produce different gains (or costs) for the participating agents. Asymmetric gains of constrained agents cannot be naturally represented by the standard DCOP model. The present paper proposes a general framework for Asymmetric DCOPs (ADCOPs). In ADCOPs different agents may have different valuations for constraints that they are involved in. The new framework bridges the gap between multi-agent problems which tend to have asymmetric structure and the standard symmetric DCOP model. The benefits of the proposed model over previous attempts to generalize the DCOP model are discussed and evaluated. Innovative algorithms that apply to the special properties of the proposed ADCOP model are presented in detail. These include complete algorithms that have a substantial advantage in terms of runtime and network load over existing algorithms (for standard DCOPs) which use alternative representations. Moreover, standard incomplete algorithms (i.e., local search algorithms) are inapplicable to the existing DCOP representations of asymmetric constraints and when they are applied to the new ADCOP framework they often fail to converge to a local optimum and yield poor results. The local search algorithms proposed in the present paper converge to high quality solutions. The experimental evidence that is presented reveals that the proposed local search algorithms for ADCOPs achieve high quality solutions while preserving a high level of privacy.

The causal graph of a planning instance is an important tool for planning both in practice and in theory. The theoretical studies of causal graphs have largely analysed the computational complexity of planning for instances where the causal graph has a certain structure, often in combination with other parameters like the domain size of the variables. Chen and Giménez ignored even the structure and considered only the size of the weakly connected components. They proved that planning is tractable if the components are bounded by a constant and otherwise intractable. Their intractability result was, however, conditioned by an assumption from parameterised complexity theory that has no known useful relationship with the standard complexity classes. We approach the same problem from the perspective of standard complexity classes, and prove that planning is NP-hard for classes with unbounded components under an additional restriction we refer to as SP-closed. We then argue that most NP-hardness theorems for causal graphs are difficult to apply and, thus, prove a more general result; even if the component sizes grow slowly and the class is not densely populated with graphs, planning still cannot be tractable unless the polynomial hierachy collapses. Both these results still hold when restricted to the class of acyclic causal graphs. We finally give a partial characterization of the borderline between NP-hard and NP-intermediate classes, giving further insight into the problem.

Penetration Testing is a methodology for assessing network security, by generating and executing possible hacking attacks. Doing so automatically allows for regular and systematic testing. A key question is how to generate the attacks. This is naturally formulated as planning under uncertainty, i.e., under incomplete knowledge about the network configuration. Previous work uses classical planning, and requires costly pre-processes reducing this uncertainty by extensive application of scanning methods. By contrast, we herein model the attack planning problem in terms of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP). This allows to reason about the knowledge available, and to intelligently employ scanning actions as part of the attack. As one would expect, this accurate solution does not scale. We devise a method that relies on POMDPs to find good attacks on individual machines, which are then composed into an attack on the network as a whole. This decomposition exploits network structure to the extent possible, making targeted approximations (only) where needed. Evaluating this method on a suitably adapted industrial test suite, we demonstrate its effectiveness in both runtime and solution quality.