This paper presents an efficient Bayesian framework for solving nonlinear, high-dimensional model calibration problems. It is based on a Variational Bayesian formulation that aims at approximating the exact posterior by means of solving an optimization problem over an appropriately selected family of distributions. The goal is two-fold. Firstly, to find lower-dimensional representations of the unknown parameter vector that capture as much as possible of the associated posterior density, and secondly to enable the computation of the approximate posterior density with as few forward calls as possible. We discuss how these objectives can be achieved by using a fully Bayesian argumentation and employing the marginal likelihood or evidence as the ultimate model validation metric for any proposed dimensionality reduction. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed methodology for problems in nonlinear elastography where the identification of the mechanical properties of biological materials can inform non-invasive, medical diagnosis. An Importance Sampling scheme is finally employed in order to validate the results and assess the efficacy of the approximations provided.

In many statistical problems, a more coarse-grained model may be suitable for population-level behaviour, whereas a more detailed model is appropriate for accurate modelling of individual behaviour. This raises the question of how to integrate both types of models. Methods such as posterior regularization follow the idea of generalized moment matching, in that they allow matching expectations between two models, but sometimes both models are most conveniently expressed as latent variable models. We propose latent Bayesian melding, which is motivated by averaging the distributions over populations statistics of both the individual-level and the population-level models under a logarithmic opinion pool framework. In a case study on electricity disaggregation, which is a type of single-channel blind source separation problem, we show that latent Bayesian melding leads to significantly more accurate predictions than an approach based solely on generalized moment matching.

For the last few years, the amount of data has significantly increased in the companies. It is the reason why data analysis methods have to evolve to meet new demands. In this article, we introduce a practical analysis of a large database from a telecommunication operator. The problem is to segment a territory and characterize the retrieved areas owing to their inhabitant behavior in terms of mobile telephony. We have call detail records collected during five months in France. We propose a two stages analysis. The first one aims at grouping source antennas which originating calls are similarly distributed on target antennas and conversely for target antenna w.r.t. source antenna. A geographic projection of the data is used to display the results on a map of France. The second stage discretizes the time into periods between which we note changes in distributions of calls emerging from the clusters of source antennas. This enables an analysis of temporal changes of inhabitants behavior in every area of the country.

Under the framework of spectral clustering, the key of subspace clustering is building a similarity graph which describes the neighborhood relations among data points. Some recent works build the graph using sparse, low-rank, and $\ell_2$-norm-based representation, and have achieved state-of-the-art performance. However, these methods have suffered from the following two limitations. First, the time complexities of these methods are at least proportional to the cube of the data size, which make those methods inefficient for solving large-scale problems. Second, they cannot cope with out-of-sample data that are not used to construct the similarity graph. To cluster each out-of-sample datum, the methods have to recalculate the similarity graph and the cluster membership of the whole data set. In this paper, we propose a unified framework which makes representation-based subspace clustering algorithms feasible to cluster both out-of-sample and large-scale data. Under our framework, the large-scale problem is tackled by converting it as out-of-sample problem in the manner of "sampling, clustering, coding, and classifying". Furthermore, we give an estimation for the error bounds by treating each subspace as a point in a hyperspace. Extensive experimental results on various benchmark data sets show that our methods outperform several recently-proposed scalable methods in clustering large-scale data set.

In this paper we study nonconvex penalization using Bernstein functions whose first-order derivatives are completely monotone. The Bernstein function can induce a class of nonconvex penalty functions for high-dimensional sparse estimation problems. We derive a thresholding function based on the Bernstein penalty and discuss some important mathematical properties in sparsity modeling. We show that a coordinate descent algorithm is especially appropriate for regression problems penalized by the Bernstein function. We also consider the application of the Bernstein penalty in classification problems and devise a proximal alternating linearized minimization method. Based on theory of the Kurdyka-Lojasiewicz inequality, we conduct convergence analysis of these alternating iteration procedures. We particularly exemplify a family of Bernstein nonconvex penalties based on a generalized Gamma measure and conduct empirical analysis for this family.

#SMT, or model counting for logical theories, is a well-known hard problem that generalizes such tasks as counting the number of satisfying assignments to a Boolean formula and computing the volume of a polytope. In the realm of satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) there is a growing need for model counting solvers, coming from several application domains (quantitative information flow, static analysis of probabilistic programs). In this paper, we show a reduction from an approximate version of #SMT to SMT. We focus on the theories of integer arithmetic and linear real arithmetic. We propose model counting algorithms that provide approximate solutions with formal bounds on the approximation error. They run in polynomial time and make a polynomial number of queries to the SMT solver for the underlying theory, exploiting "for free" the sophisticated heuristics implemented within modern SMT solvers. We have implemented the algorithms and used them to solve the value problem for a model of loop-free probabilistic programs with nondeterminism.

Since Pearl's seminal work on providing a formal language for causality, the subject has garnered a lot of interest among philosophers and researchers in artificial intelligence alike. One of the most debated topics in this context regards the notion of actual causation, which concerns itself with specific - as opposed to general - causal claims. The search for a proper formal definition of actual causation has evolved into a controversial debate, that is pervaded with ambiguities and confusion. The goal of our research is twofold. First, we wish to provide a clear way to compare competing definitions. Second, we also want to improve upon these definitions so they can be applied to a more diverse range of instances, including non-deterministic ones. To achieve these goals we will provide a general, abstract definition of actual causation, formulated in the context of the expressive language of CP-logic (Causal Probabilistic logic). We will then show that three recent definitions by Ned Hall (originally formulated for structural models) and a definition of our own (formulated for CP-logic directly) can be viewed and directly compared as instantiations of this abstract definition, which allows them to deal with a broader range of examples.

Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) are popular tools for studying network structures. However, many modern applications such as gene network discovery and social interactions analysis often involve high-dimensional noisy data with outliers or heavier tails than the Gaussian distribution. In this paper, we propose the Trimmed Graphical Lasso for robust estimation of sparse GGMs. Our method guards against outliers by an implicit trimming mechanism akin to the popular Least Trimmed Squares method used for linear regression. We provide a rigorous statistical analysis of our estimator in the high-dimensional setting. In contrast, existing approaches for robust sparse GGMs estimation lack statistical guarantees. Our theoretical results are complemented by experiments on simulated and real gene expression data which further demonstrate the value of our approach.

We aim to analyze the relation between two random vectors that may potentially have both different number of attributes as well as realizations, and which may even not have a joint distribution. This problem arises in many practical domains, including biology and architecture. Existing techniques assume the vectors to have the same domain or to be jointly distributed, and hence are not applicable. To address this, we propose Canonical Divergence Analysis (CDA). We introduce three instantiations, each of which permits practical implementation. Extensive empirical evaluation shows the potential of our method.

Frank-Wolfe (FW) algorithms have been often proposed over the last few years as efficient solvers for a variety of optimization problems arising in the field of Machine Learning. The ability to work with cheap projection-free iterations and the incremental nature of the method make FW a very effective choice for many large-scale problems where computing a sparse model is desirable. In this paper, we present a high-performance implementation of the FW method tailored to solve large-scale Lasso regression problems, based on a randomized iteration, and prove that the convergence guarantees of the standard FW method are preserved in the stochastic setting. We show experimentally that our algorithm outperforms several existing state of the art methods, including the Coordinate Descent algorithm by Friedman et al. (one of the fastest known Lasso solvers), on several benchmark datasets with a very large number of features, without sacrificing the accuracy of the model. Our results illustrate that the algorithm is able to generate the complete regularization path on problems of size up to four million variables in less than one minute.