Recently, Halpern and Leung suggested representing uncertainty by a set of weighted probability measures, and suggested a way of making decisions based on this representation of uncertainty: maximizing weighted regret. Their paper does not answer an apparently simpler question: what it means, according to this representation of uncertainty, for an event E to be more likely than an event E'. In this paper, a notion of comparative likelihood when uncertainty is represented by a set of weighted probability measures is defined. It generalizes the ordering defined by probability (and by lower probability) in a natural way; a generalization of upper probability can also be defined. A complete axiomatic characterization of this notion of regret-based likelihood is given.

Kalman Filters are one of the most influential models of time-varying phenomena. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption in a variety of disciplines. Motivated by recent variational methods for learning deep generative models, we introduce a unified algorithm to efficiently learn a broad spectrum of Kalman filters. Of particular interest is the use of temporal generative models for counterfactual inference. We investigate the efficacy of such models for counterfactual inference, and to that end we introduce the "Healing MNIST" dataset where long-term structure, noise and actions are applied to sequences of digits. We show the efficacy of our method for modeling this dataset. We further show how our model can be used for counterfactual inference for patients, based on electronic health record data of 8,000 patients over 4.5 years.

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as well under interventions as for observational data. In contrast, predictions from a non-causal model can potentially be very wrong if we actively intervene on variables. Here, we propose to exploit this invariance of a prediction under a causal model for causal inference: given different experimental settings (for example various interventions) we collect all models that do show invariance in their predictive accuracy across settings and interventions. The causal model will be a member of this set of models with high probability. This approach yields valid confidence intervals for the causal relationships in quite general scenarios. We examine the example of structural equation models in more detail and provide sufficient assumptions under which the set of causal predictors becomes identifiable. We further investigate robustness properties of our approach under model misspecification and discuss possible extensions. The empirical properties are studied for various data sets, including large-scale gene perturbation experiments.

As the name of the course suggests, this lecture note introduces readers to a neural network based approach to natural language understanding/processing. In order to make it as self-contained as possible, I spend much time on describing basics of machine learning and neural networks, only after which how they are used for natural languages is introduced. On the language front, I almost solely focus on language modelling and machine translation, two of which I personally find most fascinating and most fundamental to natural language understanding. After about a month of lectures and about 40 pages of writing this lecture note, I found this fascinating note [47] by Yoav Goldberg on neural network models for natural language processing. This note deals with wider topics on natural language processing with distributed representations in more details, and I highly recommend you to read it (hopefully along with this lecture note.)

Expectation maximization (EM) has recently been shown to be an efficient algorithm for learning finite-state controllers (FSCs) in large decentralized POMDPs (Dec-POMDPs). However, current methods use fixed-size FSCs and often converge to maxima that are far from optimal. This paper considers a variable-size FSC to represent the local policy of each agent. These variable-size FSCs are constructed using a stick-breaking prior, leading to a new framework called \emph{decentralized stick-breaking policy representation} (Dec-SBPR). This approach learns the controller parameters with a variational Bayesian algorithm without having to assume that the Dec-POMDP model is available. The performance of Dec-SBPR is demonstrated on several benchmark problems, showing that the algorithm scales to large problems while outperforming other state-of-the-art methods.

Finding high quality plans for large planning problems is hard. Although some current anytime planners are often able to improve plans quickly, they tend to reach a limit at which the plans produced are still very far from the best possible, but these planners fail to find any further improvement, even when given several hours of runtime. We present an approach to continuing plan quality optimisation at larger time scales, and its implementation in a system called BDPO2. Key to this approach is a decomposition into subproblems of improving parts of the current best plan. The decomposition is based on block deordering, a form of plan deordering which identifies hierarchical plan structure. BDPO2 can be seen as an application of the large neighbourhood search (LNS) local search strategy to planning, where the neighbourhood of a plan is defined by replacing one or more subplans with improved subplans. On-line learning is also used to adapt the strategy for selecting subplans and subplanners over the course of plan optimisation. Even starting from the best plans found by other means, BDPO2 is able to continue improving plan quality, often producing better plans than other anytime planners when all are given enough runtime. The best results, however, are achieved by a combination of different techniques working together.

Deep learning takes advantage of large datasets and computationally efficient training algorithms to outperform other approaches at various machine learning tasks. However, imperfections in the training phase of deep neural networks make them vulnerable to adversarial samples: inputs crafted by adversaries with the intent of causing deep neural networks to misclassify. In this work, we formalize the space of adversaries against deep neural networks (DNNs) and introduce a novel class of algorithms to craft adversarial samples based on a precise understanding of the mapping between inputs and outputs of DNNs. In an application to computer vision, we show that our algorithms can reliably produce samples correctly classified by human subjects but misclassified in specific targets by a DNN with a 97% adversarial success rate while only modifying on average 4.02% of the input features per sample. We then evaluate the vulnerability of different sample classes to adversarial perturbations by defining a hardness measure. Finally, we describe preliminary work outlining defenses against adversarial samples by defining a predictive measure of distance between a benign input and a target classification.

In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical techniques. Specific attention is paid to the Laplace approximation, variational Bayes, importance sampling, thermodynamic integration, and nested sampling and its recent variants. Analogies to statistical physics, from which many of these techniques originate, are discussed in order to provide readers with deeper insights that may lead to new techniques. The utility of Bayesian model testing in the domain sciences is demonstrated by presenting four specific practical examples considered within the context of signal processing in the areas of signal detection, sensor characterization, scientific model selection and molecular force characterization.

Class ambiguity is typical in image classification problems with a large number of classes. When classes are difficult to discriminate, it makes sense to allow k guesses and evaluate classifiers based on the top-k error instead of the standard zero-one loss. We propose top-k multiclass SVM as a direct method to optimize for top-k performance. Our generalization of the well-known multiclass SVM is based on a tight convex upper bound of the top-k error. We propose a fast optimization scheme based on an efficient projection onto the top-k simplex, which is of its own interest. Experiments on five datasets show consistent improvements in top-k accuracy compared to various baselines.

Recent applications of Stackelberg Security Games (SSG), from wildlife crime to urban crime, have employed machine learning tools to learn and predict adversary behavior using available data about defender-adversary interactions. Given these recent developments, this paper commits to an approach of directly learning the response function of the adversary. Using the PAC model, this paper lays a firm theoretical foundation for learning in SSGs (e.g., theoretically answer questions about the numbers of samples required to learn adversary behavior) and provides utility guarantees when the learned adversary model is used to plan the defender's strategy. The paper also aims to answer practical questions such as how much more data is needed to improve an adversary model's accuracy. Additionally, we explain a recently observed phenomenon that prediction accuracy of learned adversary behavior is not enough to discover the utility maximizing defender strategy. We provide four main contributions: (1) a PAC model of learning adversary response functions in SSGs; (2) PAC-model analysis of the learning of key, existing bounded rationality models in SSGs; (3) an entirely new approach to adversary modeling based on a non-parametric class of response functions with PAC-model analysis and (4) identification of conditions under which computing the best defender strategy against the learned adversary behavior is indeed the optimal strategy. Finally, we conduct experiments with real-world data from a national park in Uganda, showing the benefit of our new adversary modeling approach and verification of our PAC model predictions.