Efficient and robust algorithms for decentralized estimation in networks are essential to many distributed systems. Whereas distributed estimation of sample mean statistics has been the subject of a good deal of attention, computation of U-statistics, relying on more expensive averaging over pairs of observations, is a less investigated area. Yet, such data functionals are essential to describe global properties of a statistical population, with important examples including Area Under the Curve, empirical variance, Gini mean difference and within-cluster point scatter. This paper proposes new synchronous and asynchronous randomized gossip algorithms which simultaneously propagate data across the network and maintain local estimates of the U-statistic of interest. We establish convergence rate bounds of O(1 / t) and O(log t / t) for the synchronous and asynchronous cases respectively, where t is the number of iterations, with explicit data and network dependent terms. Beyond favorable comparisons in terms of rate analysis, numerical experiments provide empirical evidence the proposed algorithms surpasses the previously introduced approach.

In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do not allow for a strict sequence of decisions collapsing the search space. We construct a probabilistic line search by combining the structure of existing deterministic methods with notions from Bayesian optimization. Our method retains a Gaussian process surrogate of the univariate optimization objective, and uses a probabilistic belief over the Wolfe conditions to monitor the descent. The algorithm has very low computational cost, and no user-controlled parameters. Experiments show that it effectively removes the need to define a learning rate for stochastic gradient descent.

Constrained optimization of high-dimensional numerical problems plays an important role in many scientific and industrial applications. Function evaluations in many industrial applications are severely limited and no analytical information about objective function and constraint functions is available. For such expensive black-box optimization tasks, the constraint optimization algorithm COBRA was proposed, making use of RBF surrogate modeling for both the objective and the constraint functions. COBRA has shown remarkable success in solving reliably complex benchmark problems in less than 500 function evaluations. Unfortunately, COBRA requires careful adjustment of parameters in order to do so. In this work we present a new self-adjusting algorithm SACOBRA, which is based on COBRA and capable to achieve high-quality results with very few function evaluations and no parameter tuning. It is shown with the help of performance profiles on a set of benchmark problems (G-problems, MOPTA08) that SACOBRA consistently outperforms any COBRA algorithm with fixed parameter setting. We analyze the importance of the several new elements in SACOBRA and find that each element of SACOBRA plays a role to boost up the overall optimization performance. We discuss the reasons behind and get in this way a better understanding of high-quality RBF surrogate modeling.

The paper presents an application of non-linear stacking ensembles for prediction of Go player attributes. An evolutionary algorithm is used to form a diverse ensemble of base learners, which are then aggregated by a stacking ensemble. This methodology allows for an efficient prediction of different attributes of Go players from sets of their games. These attributes can be fairly general, in this work, we used the strength and style of the players.

Bart De Moor Dept. of Electrical Engineering, STADIUS KU Leuven & iMinds Medical IT Assessing the performance of a learned model is a crucial part of machine learning. However, in some domains only positive and unlabeled examples are available, which prohibits the use of most standard evaluation metrics. We propose an approach to estimate any metric based on contingency tables, including ROC and PR curves, using only positive and unlabeled data. Estimating these performance metrics is essentially reduced to estimating the fraction of (latent) positives in the unlabeled set, assuming known positives are a random sample of all positives. We provide theoretical bounds on the quality of our estimates, illustrate the importance of estimating the fraction of positives in the unlabeled set and demonstrate empirically that we are able to reliably estimate ROC and PR curves on real data.

Decision making is often based on Bayesian networks. The building blocks for Bayesian networks are its conditional probability tables (CPTs). These tables are obtained by parameter estimation methods, or they are elicited from subject matter experts (SME). Some of these knowledge representations are insufficient approximations. Using knowledge fusion of cause and effect observations lead to better predictive decisions. We propose three new methods to generate CPTs, which even work when only soft evidence is provided. The first two are novel ways of mapping conditional expectations to the probability space. The third is a column extraction method, which obtains CPTs from nonlinear functions such as the multinomial logistic regression. Case studies on military effects and burnt forest desertification have demonstrated that so derived CPTs have highly reliable predictive power, including superiority over the CPTs obtained from SMEs. In this context, new quality measures for determining the goodness of a CPT and for comparing CPTs with each other have been introduced. The predictive power and enhanced reliability of decision making based on the novel CPT generation methods presented in this paper have been confirmed and validated within the context of the case studies.

We introduce a novel approach to Compressed Path Databases, space efficient oracles used to very quickly identify the first edge on a shortest path. Our algorithm achieves query running times on the 100 nanosecond scale, being significantly faster than state-of-the-art first-move oracles from the literature. Space consumption is competitive, due to a compression approach that rearranges rows and columns in a first-move matrix and then performs run length encoding (RLE) on the contents of the matrix. One variant of our implemented system was, by a convincing margin, the fastest entry in the 2014 Grid-Based Path Planning Competition. We give a first tractability analysis for the compression scheme used by our algorithm. We study the complexity of computing a database of minimum size for general directed and undirected graphs. We find that in both cases the problem is NP-complete. We also show that, for graphs which can be decomposed along articulation points, the problem can be decomposed into independent parts, with a corresponding reduction in its level of difficulty. In particular, this leads to simple and tractable algorithms with linear running time which yield optimal compression results for trees.

We study a regularizer which is defined as a parameterized infimum of quadratics, and which we call the box-norm. We show that the k-support norm, a regularizer proposed by Argyriou et al. (2012) for sparse vector prediction problems, belongs to this family, and the box-norm can be generated as a perturbation of the former. We derive an improved algorithm to compute the proximity operator of the squared box-norm, and we provide a method to compute the norm. We extend the norms to matrices, introducing the spectral k-support norm and spectral box-norm. We note that the spectral box-norm is essentially equivalent to the cluster norm, a multitask learning regularizer introduced by Jacob et al. (2009a), and which in turn can be interpreted as a perturbation of the spectral k-support norm. Centering the norm is important for multitask learning and we also provide a method to use centered versions of the norms as regularizers. Numerical experiments indicate that the spectral k-support and box-norms and their centered variants provide state of the art performance in matrix completion and multitask learning problems respectively.

Complicated generative models often result in a situation where computing the likelihood of observed data is intractable, while simulating from the conditional density given a parameter value is relatively easy. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a paradigm that enables simulation-based posterior inference in such cases by measuring the similarity between simulated and observed data in terms of a chosen set of summary statistics. However, there is no general rule to construct sufficient summary statistics for complex models. Insufficient summary statistics will "leak" information, which leads to ABC algorithms yielding samples from an incorrect (partial) posterior. In this paper, we propose a fully nonparametric ABC paradigm which circumvents the need for manually selecting summary statistics. Our approach, K2-ABC, uses maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) to construct a dissimilarity measure between the observed and simulated data. The embedding of an empirical distribution of the data into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space plays a role of the summary statistic and is sufficient whenever the corresponding kernels are characteristic. Experiments on a simulated scenario and a real-world biological problem illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. M Park and W Jitkrittum contributed equally.

The discovery of causal relationships from purely observational data is a fundamental problem in science. The most elementary form of such a causal discovery problem is to decide whether X causes Y or, alternatively, Y causes X, given joint observations of two variables X, Y. An example is to decide whether altitude causes temperature, or vice versa, given only joint measurements of both variables. Even under the simplifying assumptions of no confounding, no feedback loops, and no selection bias, such bivariate causal discovery problems are challenging. Nevertheless, several approaches for addressing those problems have been proposed in recent years. We review two families of such methods: Additive Noise Methods (ANM) and Information Geometric Causal Inference (IGCI). We present the benchmark CauseEffectPairs that consists of data for 100 different cause-effect pairs selected from 37 datasets from various domains (e.g., meteorology, biology, medicine, engineering, economy, etc.) and motivate our decisions regarding the "ground truth" causal directions of all pairs. We evaluate the performance of several bivariate causal discovery methods on these real-world benchmark data and in addition on artificially simulated data. Our empirical results on real-world data indicate that certain methods are indeed able to distinguish cause from effect using only purely observational data, although more benchmark data would be needed to obtain statistically significant conclusions. One of the best performing methods overall is the additive-noise method originally proposed by Hoyer et al. (2009), which obtains an accuracy of 63+-10 % and an AUC of 0.74+-0.05 on the real-world benchmark. As the main theoretical contribution of this work we prove the consistency of that method.