Partial monitoring is a general model for online learning with limited feedback: a learner chooses actions in a sequential manner while an opponent chooses outcomes. In every round, the learner suffers some loss and receives some feedback based on the action and the outcome. The goal of the learner is to minimize her cumulative loss. Applications range from dynamic pricing to label-efficient prediction to dueling bandits. In this paper, we assume that we are given some prior information about the distribution based on which the opponent generates the outcomes. We propose BPM, a family of new efficient algorithms whose core is to track the outcome distribution with an ellipsoid centered around the estimated distribution. We show that our algorithm provably enjoys near-optimal regret rate for locally observable partial-monitoring problems against stochastic opponents. As demonstrated with experiments on synthetic as well as real-world data, the algorithm outperforms previous approaches, even for very uninformed priors, with an order of magnitude smaller regret and lower running time.

We consider the problem of online planning in a Markov decision process with discounted rewards for any given initial state. We consider the PAC sample complexity problem of computing, with probability $1-\delta$, an $\epsilon$-optimal action using the smallest possible number of calls to the generative model (which provides reward and next-state samples). We design an algorithm, called StOP (for Stochastic-Optimistic Planning), based on the optimism in the face of uncertainty" principle. StOP can be used in the general setting, requires only a generative model, and enjoys a complexity bound that only depends on the local structure of the MDP."

Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability distribution over the ODE solution. In contrast to prior work, we construct this family such that posterior means match the outputs of the Runge-Kutta family exactly, thus inheriting their proven good properties. Remaining degrees of freedom not identified by the match to Runge-Kutta are chosen such that the posterior probability measure fits the observed structure of the ODE. Our results shed light on the structure of Runge-Kutta solvers from a new direction, provide a richer, probabilistic output, have low computational cost, and raise new research questions.

Neural responses in visual cortex are influenced by visual stimuli and by ongoing spiking activity in local circuits. An important challenge in computational neuroscience is to develop models that can account for both of these features in large multi-neuron recordings and to reveal how stimulus representations interact with and depend on cortical dynamics. Here we introduce a statistical model of neural population activity that integrates a nonlinear receptive field model with a latent dynamical model of ongoing cortical activity. This model captures the temporal dynamics, effective network connectivity in large population recordings, and correlations due to shared stimulus drive as well as common noise. Moreover, because the nonlinear stimulus inputs are mixed by the ongoing dynamics, the model can account for a relatively large number of idiosyncratic receptive field shapes with a small number of nonlinear inputs to a low-dimensional latent dynamical model. We introduce a fast estimation method using online expectation maximization with Laplace approximations. Inference scales linearly in both population size and recording duration. We apply this model to multi-channel recordings from primary visual cortex and show that it accounts for a large number of individual neural receptive fields using a small number of nonlinear inputs and a low-dimensional dynamical model.

Neural population activity in cortical circuits is not solely driven by external inputs, but is also modulated by endogenous states which vary on multiple time-scales. To understand information processing in cortical circuits, we need to understand the statistical structure of internal states and their interaction with sensory inputs. Here, we present a statistical model for extracting hierarchically organised neural population states from multi-channel recordings of neural spiking activity. Population states are modelled using a hidden Markov decision tree with state-dependent tuning parameters and a generalised linear observation model. We present a variational Bayesian inference algorithm for estimating the posterior distribution over parameters from neural population recordings. On simulated data, we show that we can identify the underlying sequence of population states and reconstruct the ground truth parameters. Using population recordings from visual cortex, we find that a model with two levels of population states outperforms both a one-state and a two-state generalised linear model. Finally, we find that modelling of state-dependence also improves the accuracy with which sensory stimuli can be decoded from the population response.

We propose a method for automatically answering questions about images by bringing together recent advances from natural language processing and computer vision. We combine discrete reasoning with uncertain predictions by a multi-world approach that represents uncertainty about the perceived world in a bayesian framework. Our approach can handle human questions of high complexity about realistic scenes and replies with range of answer like counts, object classes, instances and lists of them. The system is directly trained from question-answer pairs. We establish a first benchmark for this task that can be seen as a modern attempt at a visual turing test.

Ensembles of randomized decision trees, usually referred to as random forests, are widely used for classification and regression tasks in machine learning and statistics. Random forests achieve competitive predictive performance and are computationally efficient to train and test, making them excellent candidates for real-world prediction tasks. The most popular random forest variants (such as Breiman's random forest and extremely randomized trees) operate on batches of training data. Online methods are now in greater demand. Existing online random forests, however, require more training data than their batch counterpart to achieve comparable predictive performance. In this work, we use Mondrian processes (Roy and Teh, 2009) to construct ensembles of random decision trees we call Mondrian forests. Mondrian forests can be grown in an incremental/online fashion and remarkably, the distribution of online Mondrian forests is the same as that of batch Mondrian forests. Mondrian forests achieve competitive predictive performance comparable with existing online random forests and periodically re-trained batch random forests, while being more than an order of magnitude faster, thus representing a better computation vs accuracy tradeoff.

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in probabilistic inference is numerical integration, to average over ensembles of models or unknown (hyper-)parameters (for example to compute marginal likelihood or a partition function). MCMC has provided approaches to numerical integration that deliver state-of-the-art inference, but can suffer from sample inefficiency and poor convergence diagnostics. Bayesian quadrature techniques offer a model-based solution to such problems, but their uptake has been hindered by prohibitive computation costs. We introduce a warped model for probabilistic integrands (likelihoods) that are known to be non-negative, permitting a cheap active learning scheme to optimally select sample locations. Our algorithm is demonstrated to offer faster convergence (in seconds) relative to simple Monte Carlo and annealed importance sampling on both synthetic and real-world examples.

It has been long argued that, because of inherent ambiguity and noise, the brain needs to represent uncertainty in the form of probability distributions. The neural encodingof such distributions remains however highly controversial. Here we present a novel circuit model for representing multidimensional real-valued distributions usinga spike based spatiotemporal code. Our model combines the computational advantagesof the currently competing models for probabilistic codes and exhibits realistic neural responses along a variety of classic measures. Furthermore, themodel highlights the challenges associated with interpreting neural activity in relation to behavioral uncertainty and points to alternative populationlevel approachesfor the experimental validation of distributed representations. Core brain computations, such as sensory perception, have been successfully characterized as probabilistic inference,whereby sensory stimuli are interpreted in terms of the objects or features that gave rise to them [1, 2].

In this paper we propose a general framework for learning distributed representations of attributes: characteristics of text whose representations can be jointly learned with word embeddings. Attributes can correspond to a wide variety of concepts, such as document indicators (to learn sentence vectors), language indicators (to learn distributed language representations), meta-data and side information (such as the age, gender and industry of a blogger) or representations of authors. We describe a third-order model where word context and attribute vectors interact multiplicatively to predict the next word in a sequence. This leads to the notion of conditional word similarity: how meanings of words change when conditioned on different attributes. We perform several experimental tasks including sentiment classification, cross-lingual document classification, and blog authorship attribution. We also qualitatively evaluate conditional word neighbours and attribute-conditioned text generation.