Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer hierarchical generalisations of Gaussian processes (GPs) and are formally equivalent to neural networks with multiple, infinitely wide hidden layers. DGPs are nonparametric probabilistic models and as such are arguably more flexible, have a greater capacity to generalise, and provide better calibrated uncertainty estimates than alternative deep models. This paper develops a new approximate Bayesian learning scheme that enables DGPs to be applied to a range of medium to large scale regression problems for the first time. The new method uses an approximate Expectation Propagation procedure and a novel and efficient extension of the probabilistic backpropagation algorithm for learning. We evaluate the new method for non-linear regression on eleven real-world datasets, showing that it always outperforms GP regression and is almost always better than state-of-the-art deterministic and sampling-based approximate inference methods for Bayesian neural networks. As a by-product, this work provides a comprehensive analysis of six approximate Bayesian methods for training neural networks.

The public package registry npm is one of the biggest software registry. With its 216 911 software packages, it forms a big network of software dependencies. In this paper we evaluate various methods for finding similar packages in the npm network, using only the structure of the graph. Namely, we want to find a way of categorizing similar packages, which would be useful for recommendation systems. This size enables us to compute meaningful results, as it softened the particularities of the graph. Npm is also quite famous as it is the default package repository of Node.js. We believe that it will make our results interesting for more people than a less used package repository. This makes it a good subject of analysis of software networks.

An estimated 17.5 million people died from a cardiovascular disease in 2012, representing 31% of all global deaths. Most acute coronary events result from rupture of the protective fibrous cap overlying an atherosclerotic plaque. The task of early identification of plaque types that can potentially rupture is, therefore, of great importance. The state-of-the-art approach to imaging blood vessels is intravascular optical coherence tomography (IVOCT). However, currently, this is an offline approach where the images are first collected and then manually analyzed a frame at a time to identify regions at risk of thrombosis. This process is extremely laborious, time consuming and prone to human error. We are building a system that, when complete, will provide interactive 3D visualization of a blood vessel as an IVOCT is in progress. The visualization will highlight different plaque types and enable quick identification of regions at risk for thrombosis. In this paper, we describe our approach, focusing on machine learning methods that are a key enabling technology. Our empirical results using real OCT data show that our approach can identify different plaque types efficiently with high accuracy across multiple patients.

Penetration testing is regarded as the gold-standard for understanding how well an organization can withstand sophisticated cyber-attacks. However, the recent prevalence of markets specializing in zero-day exploits on the darknet make exploits widely available to potential attackers. The cost associated with these sophisticated kits generally precludes penetration testers from simply obtaining such exploits -- so an alternative approach is needed to understand what exploits an attacker will most likely purchase and how to defend against them. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven security game framework to model an attacker and provide policy recommendations to the defender. In addition to providing a formal framework and algorithms to develop strategies, we present experimental results from applying our framework, for various system configurations, on real-world exploit market data actively mined from the darknet.

Boliden Tara Mines Ltd. consumed 184.7 GWh of electricity in 2014, equating to over 1% of the national demand of Ireland or approximately 35,000 homes. Ireland’s industrial electricity prices, at an average of 13 c/KWh in 2014, are amongst the most expensive in Europe. Cost effective electricity procurement is ever more pressing for businesses to remain competitive. In parallel, the proliferation of intelligent devices has led to the industrial Internet of Things paradigm becoming mainstream. As more and more devices become equipped with network connectivity, smart metering is fast becoming a means of giving energy users access to a rich array of consumption data. These modern sensor networks have facilitated the development of applications to process, analyse, and react to continuous data streams in real-time. Subsequently, future procurement and consumption decisions can be informed by a highly detailed evaluation of energy usage. With these considerations in mind, this paper uses variable energy prices from Ireland’s Single Electricity Market, along with smart meter sensor data, to simulate the scheduling of an industrial-sized underground pump station in Tara Mines. The objective is to reduce the overall energy costs whilst still functioning within the system’s operational constraints. An evaluation using real-world electricity prices and detailed sensor data for 2014 demonstrates significant savings of up to 10.72% over the year compared to the existing control systems.

Due to the economic and social impacts of tourism, both private and public sectors are interested in precisely forecasting the tourism demand volume in a timely manner. With recent advances in social networks, more people use online resources to plan their future trips. In this paper we explore the application of Wikipedia usage trends (WUTs) in tourism analysis. We propose a framework that deploys WUTs for forecasting the tourism demand of Hawaii. We also propose a data-driven approach, using WUTs, to estimate the behavior of tourists when they plan their trips.

In software validation, regression testing aims to check the absence of regression faults in new releases of a software system. Typically, test cases used in regression testing are executed during a limited amount of time and are selected to check a given set of user requirements. When testing large systems, the number of regression tests grows quickly over the years, and yet the available time slot stays limited. In order to overcome this problem, an approach known as test suite reduction (TSR), has been developed in software engineering to select a smallest subset of test cases, so that each requirement remains covered at least once. However solving the TSR problem is difficult as the underlying optimization problem is NP-hard, but it is also crucial for vendors interested in reducing the time to market of new software releases. In this paper, we address regression testing and TSR with Constraint Programming (CP). More specifically, we propose new CP models to solve TSR that exploit global constraints, namely NValue and GCC. We reuse a set of preprocessing rules to reduce a priori each instance, and we introduce a structure-aware search heuristic. We evaluated our CP models and proposed improvements against existing approaches, including a simple greedy approach and MINTS, the state-of-the-art tool of the software engineering community. Our experiments show that CP outperforms both the greedy approach and MINTS when it is interfaced with MiniSAT, in terms of percentage of reduction and execution time. When MINTS is interfaced with CPLEX, we show that our CP model performs better only on percentage of reduction. Finally, by working closely with validation engineers from Cisco Systems, Norway, we integrated our CP model into an industrial regression testing process.

For over twenty five years Ford has been utilizing an AI-based system to manage process planning for vehicle assembly at our assembly plants around the world. The scope of the AI system, known originally as the Direct Labor Management System and now as the Global Study Process Allocation System (GSPAS),has increased over the years to include additional functionality on Ergonomics and Powertrain Assembly (Engine and Transmission plants). The knowledge about Ford’s manufacturing processes is contained in an ontology originally developed using the KL-ONE representation language and methodology. To preserve the viability of the GSPAS ontology and to make it easily usable for other applications within Ford, we needed to re-engineer and convert the KL-ONE ontology into a semantic web OWL/RDF format. In this paper, we will discuss the process by which we re-engineered the existing GSPAS KL-ONE ontology and deployed semantic web technology in our application.

Poaching is a serious threat to the conservation of key species and whole ecosystems. While conducting foot patrols is the most commonly used approach in many countries to prevent poaching, such patrols often do not make the best use of limited patrolling resources. To remedy this situation, prior work introduced a novel emerging application called PAWS (Protection Assistant for Wildlife Security); PAWS was proposed as a game-theoretic (``security games'') decision aid to optimize the use of patrolling resources. This paper reports on PAWS's significant evolution from a proposed decision aid to a regularly deployed application, reporting on the lessons from the first tests in Africa in Spring 2014, through its continued evolution since then, to current regular use in Southeast Asia and plans for future worldwide deployment. In this process, we have worked closely with two NGOs (Panthera and Rimba) and incorporated extensive feedback from professional patrolling teams. We outline key technical advances that lead to PAWS's regular deployment: (i) incorporating complex topographic features, e.g., ridgelines, in generating patrol routes; (ii) handling uncertainties in species distribution (game theoretic payoffs); (iii) ensuring scalability for patrolling large-scale conservation areas with fine-grained guidance; and (iv) handling complex patrol scheduling constraints.

Kernelized Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are among the best performing supervised learning methods. But for optimal predictive performance, time-consuming parameter tuning is crucial, which impedes application. To tackle this problem, the classic model selection procedure based on grid-search and cross-validation was refined, e.g. by data subsampling and direct search heuristics. Here we focus on a different aspect, the stopping criterion for SVM training. We show that by limiting the training time given to the SVM solver during parameter tuning we can reduce model selection times by an order of magnitude.