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Newton-based maximum likelihood estimation in nonlinear state space models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation using Newton's method in nonlinear state space models (SSMs) is a challenging problem due to the analytical intractability of the log-likelihood and its gradient and Hessian. We estimate the gradient and Hessian using Fisher's identity in combination with a smoothing algorithm. We explore two approximations of the log-likelihood and of the solution of the smoothing problem. The first is a linearization approximation which is computationally cheap, but the accuracy typically varies between models. The second is a sampling approximation which is asymptotically valid for any SSM but is more computationally costly. We demonstrate our approach for ML parameter estimation on simulated data from two different SSMs with encouraging results.


Nested Sequential Monte Carlo Methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo (NSMC), a methodology to sample from sequences of probability distributions, even where the random variables are high-dimensional. NSMC generalises the SMC framework by requiring only approximate, properly weighted, samples from the SMC proposal distribution, while still resulting in a correct SMC algorithm. Furthermore, NSMC can in itself be used to produce such properly weighted samples. Consequently, one NSMC sampler can be used to construct an efficient high-dimensional proposal distribution for another NSMC sampler, and this nesting of the algorithm can be done to an arbitrary degree. This allows us to consider complex and high-dimensional models using SMC. We show results that motivate the efficacy of our approach on several filtering problems with dimensions in the order of 100 to 1 000.


A deep matrix factorization method for learning attribute representations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Semi-Non-negative Matrix Factorization is a technique that learns a low-dimensional representation of a dataset that lends itself to a clustering interpretation. It is possible that the mapping between this new representation and our original data matrix contains rather complex hierarchical information with implicit lower-level hidden attributes, that classical one level clustering methodologies can not interpret. In this work we propose a novel model, Deep Semi-NMF, that is able to learn such hidden representations that allow themselves to an interpretation of clustering according to different, unknown attributes of a given dataset. We also present a semi-supervised version of the algorithm, named Deep WSF, that allows the use of (partial) prior information for each of the known attributes of a dataset, that allows the model to be used on datasets with mixed attribute knowledge. Finally, we show that our models are able to learn low-dimensional representations that are better suited for clustering, but also classification, outperforming Semi-Non-negative Matrix Factorization, but also other state-of-the-art methodologies variants.


Word vs. Class-Based Word Sense Disambiguation

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

As empirically demonstrated by the Word Sense Disambiguation (WSD) tasks of the last SensEval/SemEval exercises, assigning the appropriate meaning to words in context has resisted all attempts to be successfully addressed. Many authors argue that one possible reason could be the use of inappropriate sets of word meanings. In particular, WordNet has been used as a de-facto standard repository of word meanings in most of these tasks. Thus, instead of using the word senses defined in WordNet, some approaches have derived semantic classes representing groups of word senses. However, the meanings represented by WordNet have been only used for WSD at a very fine-grained sense level or at a very coarse-grained semantic class level (also called SuperSenses). We suspect that an appropriate level of abstraction could be on between both levels. The contributions of this paper are manifold. First, we propose a simple method to automatically derive semantic classes at intermediate levels of abstraction covering all nominal and verbal WordNet meanings. Second, we empirically demonstrate that our automatically derived semantic classes outperform classical approaches based on word senses and more coarse-grained sense groupings. Third, we also demonstrate that our supervised WSD system benefits from using these new semantic classes as additional semantic features while reducing the amount of training examples. Finally, we also demonstrate the robustness of our supervised semantic class-based WSD system when tested on out of domain corpus.


Solving #SAT and MAXSAT by Dynamic Programming

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

We look at dynamic programming algorithms for propositional model counting, also called #SAT, and MaxSAT. Tools from graph structure theory, in particular treewidth, have been used to successfully identify tractable cases in many subfields of AI, including SAT, Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSP), Bayesian reasoning, and planning. In this paper we attack #SAT and MaxSAT using similar, but more modern, graph structure tools. The tractable cases will include formulas whose class of incidence graphs have not only unbounded treewidth but also unbounded clique-width. We show that our algorithms extend all previous results for MaxSAT and #SAT achieved by dynamic programming along structural decompositions of the incidence graph of the input formula. We present some limited experimental results, comparing implementations of our algorithms to state-of-the-art #SAT and MaxSAT solvers, as a proof of concept that warrants further research.


Knowledge-Based Textual Inference via Parse-Tree Transformations

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Textual inference is an important component in many applications for understanding natural language. Classical approaches to textual inference rely on logical representations for meaning, which may be regarded as "external" to the natural language itself. However, practical applications usually adopt shallower lexical or lexical-syntactic representations, which correspond closely to language structure. In many cases, such approaches lack a principled meaning representation and inference framework. We describe an inference formalism that operates directly on language-based structures, particularly syntactic parse trees. New trees are generated by applying inference rules, which provide a unified representation for varying types of inferences. We use manual and automatic methods to generate these rules, which cover generic linguistic structures as well as specific lexical-based inferences. We also present a novel packed data-structure and a corresponding inference algorithm that allows efficient implementation of this formalism. We proved the correctness of the new algorithm and established its efficiency analytically and empirically. The utility of our approach was illustrated on two tasks: unsupervised relation extraction from a large corpus, and the Recognizing Textual Entailment (RTE) benchmarks.


Stochastic Primal-Dual Coordinate Method for Regularized Empirical Risk Minimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider a generic convex optimization problem associated with regularized empirical risk minimization of linear predictors. The problem structure allows us to reformulate it as a convex-concave saddle point problem. We propose a stochastic primal-dual coordinate (SPDC) method, which alternates between maximizing over a randomly chosen dual variable and minimizing over the primal variable. An extrapolation step on the primal variable is performed to obtain accelerated convergence rate. We also develop a mini-batch version of the SPDC method which facilitates parallel computing, and an extension with weighted sampling probabilities on the dual variables, which has a better complexity than uniform sampling on unnormalized data. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that the SPDC method has comparable or better performance than several state-of-the-art optimization methods.


S\'election de variables par le GLM-Lasso pour la pr\'ediction du risque palustre

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this study, we propose an automatic learning method for variables selection based on Lasso in epidemiology context. One of the aim of this approach is to overcome the pretreatment of experts in medicine and epidemiology on collected data. These pretreatment consist in recoding some variables and to choose some interactions based on expertise. The approach proposed uses all available explanatory variables without treatment and generate automatically all interactions between them. This lead to high dimension. We use Lasso, one of the robust methods of variable selection in high dimension. To avoid over fitting a two levels cross-validation is used. Because the target variable is account variable and the lasso estimators are biased, variables selected by lasso are debiased by a GLM and used to predict the distribution of the main vector of malaria which is Anopheles. Results show that only few climatic and environmental variables are the mains factors associated to the malaria risk exposure.


A Complete Derivation Of The Association Log-Likelihood Distance For Multi-Object Tracking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Mahalanobis distance is commonly used in multi-object trackers for measurement-to-track association. Starting with the original definition of the Mahalanobis distance we review its use in association. Given that there is no principle in multi-object tracking that sets the Mahalanobis distance apart as a distinguished statistical distance we revisit the global association hypotheses of multiple hypothesis tracking as the most general association setting. Those association hypotheses induce a distance-like quantity for assignment which we refer to as association log-likelihood distance. We compare the ability of the Mahalanobis distance to the association log-likelihood distance to yield correct association relations in Monte-Carlo simulations. It turns out that on average the distance based on association log-likelihood performs better than the Mahalanobis distance, confirming that the maximization of global association hypotheses is a more fundamental approach to association than the minimization of a certain statistical distance measure.


Modelling time evolving interactions in networks through a non stationary extension of stochastic block models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we focus on the stochastic block model (SBM),a probabilistic tool describing interactions between nodes of a network using latent clusters. The SBM assumes that the networkhas a stationary structure, in which connections of time varying intensity are not taken into account. In other words, interactions between two groups are forced to have the same features during the whole observation time. To overcome this limitation,we propose a partition of the whole time horizon, in which interactions are observed, and develop a non stationary extension of the SBM,allowing to simultaneously cluster the nodes in a network along with fixed time intervals in which the interactions take place. The number of clusters (K for nodes, D for time intervals) as well as the class memberships are finallyobtained through maximizing the complete-data integrated likelihood by means of a greedy search approach. After showing that the model works properly with simulated data, we focus on a real data set. We thus consider the three days ACM Hypertext conference held in Turin,June 29th - July 1st 2009. Proximity interactions between attendees during the first day are modelled and an interestingclustering of the daily hours is finally obtained, with times of social gathering (e.g. coffee breaks) recovered by the approach. Applications to large networks are limited due to the computational complexity of the greedy search which is dominated bythe number $K\_{max}$ and $D\_{max}$ of clusters used in the initialization. Therefore,advanced clustering tools are considered to reduce the number of clusters expected in the data, making the greedy search applicable to large networks.