We present and test a sequential learning algorithm for the short-term prediction of human mobility. This novel approach pairs the Exponential Weights forecaster with a very large ensemble of experts. The experts are individual sequence prediction algorithms constructed from the mobility traces of 10 million roaming mobile phone users in a European country. Average prediction accuracy is significantly higher than that of individual sequence prediction algorithms, namely constant order Markov models derived from the user's own data, that have been shown to achieve high accuracy in previous studies of human mobility prediction. The algorithm uses only time stamped location data, and accuracy depends on the completeness of the expert ensemble, which should contain redundant records of typical mobility patterns. The proposed algorithm is applicable to the prediction of any sufficiently large dataset of sequences.

Acyclic digraphs are the underlying representation of Bayesian networks, a widely used class of probabilistic graphical models. Learning the underlying graph from data is a way of gaining insights about the structural properties of a domain. Structure learning forms one of the inference challenges of statistical graphical models. MCMC methods, notably structure MCMC, to sample graphs from the posterior distribution given the data are probably the only viable option for Bayesian model averaging. Score modularity and restrictions on the number of parents of each node allow the graphs to be grouped into larger collections, which can be scored as a whole to improve the chain's convergence. Current examples of algorithms taking advantage of grouping are the biased order MCMC, which acts on the alternative space of permuted triangular matrices, and non ergodic edge reversal moves. Here we propose a novel algorithm, which employs the underlying combinatorial structure of DAGs to define a new grouping. As a result convergence is improved compared to structure MCMC, while still retaining the property of producing an unbiased sample. Finally the method can be combined with edge reversal moves to improve the sampler further.

The design of efficient solutions for abstract argumentation problems is a crucial step towards advanced argumentation systems. One of the most prominent approaches in the literature is to use Answer-Set Programming (ASP) for this endeavor. In this paper, we present new encodings for three prominent argumentation semantics using the concept of conditional literals in disjunctions as provided by the ASP-system clingo. Our new encodings are not only more succinct than previous versions, but also outperform them on standard benchmarks.

The use of mutual information as a similarity measure in agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC) raises an important issue: some correction needs to be applied for the dimensionality of variables. In this work, we formulate the decision of merging dependent multivariate normal variables in an AHC procedure as a Bayesian model comparison. We found that the Bayesian formulation naturally shrinks the empirical covariance matrix towards a matrix set a priori (e.g., the identity), provides an automated stopping rule, and corrects for dimensionality using a term that scales up the measure as a function of the dimensionality of the variables. Also, the resulting log Bayes factor is asymptotically proportional to the plug-in estimate of mutual information, with an additive correction for dimensionality in agreement with the Bayesian information criterion. We investigated the behavior of these Bayesian alternatives (in exact and asymptotic forms) to mutual information on simulated and real data. An encouraging result was first derived on simulations: the hierarchical clustering based on the log Bayes factor outperformed off-the-shelf clustering techniques as well as raw and normalized mutual information in terms of classification accuracy. On a toy example, we found that the Bayesian approaches led to results that were similar to those of mutual information clustering techniques, with the advantage of an automated thresholding. On real functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) datasets measuring brain activity, it identified clusters consistent with the established outcome of standard procedures. On this application, normalized mutual information had a highly atypical behavior, in the sense that it systematically favored very large clusters. These initial experiments suggest that the proposed Bayesian alternatives to mutual information are a useful new tool for hierarchical clustering.

Wiener-Granger causality is a widely used framework of causal analysis for temporally resolved events. We introduce a new measure of Wiener-Granger causality based on kernelization of partial canonical correlation analysis with specific advantages in the context of large high-dimensional data. The introduced measure is able to detect non-linear and non-monotonous signals, is designed to be immune to noise, and offers tunability in terms of computational complexity in its estimations. Furthermore, we show that, under specified conditions, the introduced measure can be regarded as an estimate of conditional mutual information (transfer entropy). The functionality of this measure is assessed using comparative simulations where it outperforms other existing methods. The paper is concluded with an application to climatological data.

Multi-cell cooperative processing with limited backhaul traffic is studied for cellular uplinks. Aiming at reduced backhaul overhead, a sparsity-regularized multi-cell receive-filter design problem is formulated. Both unstructured distributed cooperation as well as clustered cooperation, in which base station groups are formed for tight cooperation, are considered. Dynamic clustered cooperation, where the sparse equalizer and the cooperation clusters are jointly determined, is solved via alternating minimization based on spectral clustering and group-sparse regression. Furthermore, decentralized implementations of both unstructured and clustered cooperation schemes are developed for scalability, robustness and computational efficiency. Extensive numerical tests verify the efficacy of the proposed methods.

We study learning problems in which the conditional distribution of the output given the input varies as a function of additional task variables. In varying-coefficient models with Gaussian process priors, a Gaussian process generates the functional relationship between the task variables and the parameters of this conditional. Varying-coefficient models subsume hierarchical Bayesian multitask models, but also generalizations in which the conditional varies continuously, for instance, in time or space. However, Bayesian inference in varying-coefficient models is generally intractable. We show that inference for varying-coefficient models with isotropic Gaussian process priors resolves to standard inference for a Gaussian process that can be solved efficiently. MAP inference in this model resolves to multitask learning using task and instance kernels, and inference for hierarchical Bayesian multitask models can be carried out efficiently using graph-Laplacian kernels. We report on experiments for geospatial prediction.

This paper contains the consideration of inheritance mechanism in such knowledge representation models as object-oriented programming, frames and object-oriented dynamic networks. In addition, inheritance within representation of vague and imprecise knowledge are also discussed. New types of inheritance, general classification of all known inheritance types and approach, which allows avoiding in many cases problems with exceptions, redundancy and ambiguity within object-oriented dynamic networks and their fuzzy extension, are introduced in the paper. The proposed approach bases on conception of homogeneous and inhomogeneous or heterogeneous class of objects, which allow building of inheritance hierarchy more flexibly and efficiently.

Fuzzy Description Logics (DLs) provide a means for representing vague knowledge about an application domain. In this paper, we study fuzzy extensions of conjunctive queries (CQs) over the DL $\mathcal{SROIQ}$ based on finite chains of degrees of truth. To answer such queries, we extend a well-known technique that reduces the fuzzy ontology to a classical one, and use classical DL reasoners as a black box. We improve the complexity of previous reduction techniques for finitely valued fuzzy DLs, which allows us to prove tight complexity results for answering certain kinds of fuzzy CQs. We conclude with an experimental evaluation of a prototype implementation, showing the feasibility of our approach.

We propose a method combining relational-logic representations with neural network learning. A general lifted architecture, possibly reflecting some background domain knowledge, is described through relational rules which may be handcrafted or learned. The relational rule-set serves as a template for unfolding possibly deep neural networks whose structures also reflect the structures of given training or testing relational examples. Different networks corresponding to different examples share their weights, which co-evolve during training by stochastic gradient descent algorithm. The framework allows for hierarchical relational modeling constructs and learning of latent relational concepts through shared hidden layers weights corresponding to the rules. Discovery of notable relational concepts and experiments on 78 relational learning benchmarks demonstrate favorable performance of the method.