Mobile digital games are dominantly released under the freemium business model, but only a small fraction of the players makes any purchases. The ability to predict who will make a purchase enables optimization of marketing efforts, and tailoring customer relationship management to the specific user's profile. Here this challenge is addressed via two models for predicting purchasing players, using a 100,000 player dataset: 1) A classification model focused on predicting whether a purchase will occur or not. 2) a regression model focused on predicting the number of purchases a user will make. Both models are presented within a decision and regression tree framework for building rules that are actionable by companies. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study investigating purchase decisions in freemium mobile products from a user behavior perspective and adopting behavior-driven learning approaches to this problem.

Horror games form a peculiar niche within game design paradigms, as they entertain by eliciting negative emotions such as fear and unease to their audience during play. This genre often follows a specific progression of tension culminating at a metaphorical peak, which is defined by the designer. A player's tension is elicited by several facets of the game, including its mechanics, its sounds, and the placement of enemies in its levels. This paper investigates how designers can control and guide the automated generation of levels and their soundscapes by authoring the intended tension of a player traversing them.

We address the problem of acquiring reliable ratings of items such as restaurants or movies from the crowd. We propose a crowdsourcing platform that takes into consideration the workers’ skills with respect to the items being rated and assigns workers the best items to rate. Our platform focuses on acquiring ratings from skilled workers and for items that only have a few ratings. We evaluate the effectiveness of our system using a real-world dataset about restaurants.

Recommender systems learn about our preferences to make targeted suggestions. In this paper we outline a novel game-with-a-purpose designed to infer preferences at scale as a side-effect of gameplay. We evaluate the utility of this data in a recommendation context as part of a small live-user trial.

We present Blitzkriging, a new approach to fast inference for Gaussian processes, applicable to regression, optimisation and classification. State-of-the-art (stochastic) inference for Gaussian processes on very large datasets scales cubically in the number of 'inducing inputs', variables introduced to factorise the model. Blitzkriging shares state-of-the-art scaling with data, but reduces the scaling in the number of inducing points to approximately linear. Further, in contrast to other methods, Blitzkriging: does not force the data to conform to any particular structure (including grid-like); reduces reliance on error-prone optimisation of inducing point locations; and is able to learn rich (covariance) structure from the data. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach on real data in regression, time-series prediction and signal-interpolation experiments.

This paper presents an efficient Bayesian framework for solving nonlinear, high-dimensional model calibration problems. It is based on a Variational Bayesian formulation that aims at approximating the exact posterior by means of solving an optimization problem over an appropriately selected family of distributions. The goal is two-fold. Firstly, to find lower-dimensional representations of the unknown parameter vector that capture as much as possible of the associated posterior density, and secondly to enable the computation of the approximate posterior density with as few forward calls as possible. We discuss how these objectives can be achieved by using a fully Bayesian argumentation and employing the marginal likelihood or evidence as the ultimate model validation metric for any proposed dimensionality reduction. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed methodology for problems in nonlinear elastography where the identification of the mechanical properties of biological materials can inform non-invasive, medical diagnosis. An Importance Sampling scheme is finally employed in order to validate the results and assess the efficacy of the approximations provided.

Under the framework of spectral clustering, the key of subspace clustering is building a similarity graph which describes the neighborhood relations among data points. Some recent works build the graph using sparse, low-rank, and $\ell_2$-norm-based representation, and have achieved state-of-the-art performance. However, these methods have suffered from the following two limitations. First, the time complexities of these methods are at least proportional to the cube of the data size, which make those methods inefficient for solving large-scale problems. Second, they cannot cope with out-of-sample data that are not used to construct the similarity graph. To cluster each out-of-sample datum, the methods have to recalculate the similarity graph and the cluster membership of the whole data set. In this paper, we propose a unified framework which makes representation-based subspace clustering algorithms feasible to cluster both out-of-sample and large-scale data. Under our framework, the large-scale problem is tackled by converting it as out-of-sample problem in the manner of "sampling, clustering, coding, and classifying". Furthermore, we give an estimation for the error bounds by treating each subspace as a point in a hyperspace. Extensive experimental results on various benchmark data sets show that our methods outperform several recently-proposed scalable methods in clustering large-scale data set.

In many statistical problems, a more coarse-grained model may be suitable for population-level behaviour, whereas a more detailed model is appropriate for accurate modelling of individual behaviour. This raises the question of how to integrate both types of models. Methods such as posterior regularization follow the idea of generalized moment matching, in that they allow matching expectations between two models, but sometimes both models are most conveniently expressed as latent variable models. We propose latent Bayesian melding, which is motivated by averaging the distributions over populations statistics of both the individual-level and the population-level models under a logarithmic opinion pool framework. In a case study on electricity disaggregation, which is a type of single-channel blind source separation problem, we show that latent Bayesian melding leads to significantly more accurate predictions than an approach based solely on generalized moment matching.

For the last few years, the amount of data has significantly increased in the companies. It is the reason why data analysis methods have to evolve to meet new demands. In this article, we introduce a practical analysis of a large database from a telecommunication operator. The problem is to segment a territory and characterize the retrieved areas owing to their inhabitant behavior in terms of mobile telephony. We have call detail records collected during five months in France. We propose a two stages analysis. The first one aims at grouping source antennas which originating calls are similarly distributed on target antennas and conversely for target antenna w.r.t. source antenna. A geographic projection of the data is used to display the results on a map of France. The second stage discretizes the time into periods between which we note changes in distributions of calls emerging from the clusters of source antennas. This enables an analysis of temporal changes of inhabitants behavior in every area of the country.

Since Pearl's seminal work on providing a formal language for causality, the subject has garnered a lot of interest among philosophers and researchers in artificial intelligence alike. One of the most debated topics in this context regards the notion of actual causation, which concerns itself with specific - as opposed to general - causal claims. The search for a proper formal definition of actual causation has evolved into a controversial debate, that is pervaded with ambiguities and confusion. The goal of our research is twofold. First, we wish to provide a clear way to compare competing definitions. Second, we also want to improve upon these definitions so they can be applied to a more diverse range of instances, including non-deterministic ones. To achieve these goals we will provide a general, abstract definition of actual causation, formulated in the context of the expressive language of CP-logic (Causal Probabilistic logic). We will then show that three recent definitions by Ned Hall (originally formulated for structural models) and a definition of our own (formulated for CP-logic directly) can be viewed and directly compared as instantiations of this abstract definition, which allows them to deal with a broader range of examples.