We demonstrate that, in the classical non-stochastic regret minimization problem with $d$ decisions, gains and losses to be respectively maximized or minimized are fundamentally different. Indeed, by considering the additional sparsity assumption (at each stage, at most $s$ decisions incur a nonzero outcome), we derive optimal regret bounds of different orders. Specifically, with gains, we obtain an optimal regret guarantee after $T$ stages of order $\sqrt{T\log s}$, so the classical dependency in the dimension is replaced by the sparsity size. With losses, we provide matching upper and lower bounds of order $\sqrt{Ts\log(d)/d}$, which is decreasing in $d$. Eventually, we also study the bandit setting, and obtain an upper bound of order $\sqrt{Ts\log (d/s)}$ when outcomes are losses. This bound is proven to be optimal up to the logarithmic factor $\sqrt{\log(d/s)}$.

Recently, Halpern and Leung suggested representing uncertainty by a set of weighted probability measures, and suggested a way of making decisions based on this representation of uncertainty: maximizing weighted regret. Their paper does not answer an apparently simpler question: what it means, according to this representation of uncertainty, for an event E to be more likely than an event E'. In this paper, a notion of comparative likelihood when uncertainty is represented by a set of weighted probability measures is defined. It generalizes the ordering defined by probability (and by lower probability) in a natural way; a generalization of upper probability can also be defined. A complete axiomatic characterization of this notion of regret-based likelihood is given.

Kalman Filters are one of the most influential models of time-varying phenomena. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption in a variety of disciplines. Motivated by recent variational methods for learning deep generative models, we introduce a unified algorithm to efficiently learn a broad spectrum of Kalman filters. Of particular interest is the use of temporal generative models for counterfactual inference. We investigate the efficacy of such models for counterfactual inference, and to that end we introduce the "Healing MNIST" dataset where long-term structure, noise and actions are applied to sequences of digits. We show the efficacy of our method for modeling this dataset. We further show how our model can be used for counterfactual inference for patients, based on electronic health record data of 8,000 patients over 4.5 years.

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as well under interventions as for observational data. In contrast, predictions from a non-causal model can potentially be very wrong if we actively intervene on variables. Here, we propose to exploit this invariance of a prediction under a causal model for causal inference: given different experimental settings (for example various interventions) we collect all models that do show invariance in their predictive accuracy across settings and interventions. The causal model will be a member of this set of models with high probability. This approach yields valid confidence intervals for the causal relationships in quite general scenarios. We examine the example of structural equation models in more detail and provide sufficient assumptions under which the set of causal predictors becomes identifiable. We further investigate robustness properties of our approach under model misspecification and discuss possible extensions. The empirical properties are studied for various data sets, including large-scale gene perturbation experiments.

This is a lecture note for the course DS-GA 3001 at the Center for Data Science , New York University in Fall, 2015. As the name of the course suggests, this lecture note introduces readers to a neural network based approach to natural language understanding/processing. In order to make it as self-contained as possible, I spend much time on describing basics of machine learning and neural networks, only after which how they are used for natural languages is introduced. On the language front, I almost solely focus on language modelling and machine translation, two of which I personally find most fascinating and most fundamental to natural language understanding.

Finding high quality plans for large planning problems is hard. Although some current anytime planners are often able to improve plans quickly, they tend to reach a limit at which the plans produced are still very far from the best possible, but these planners fail to find any further improvement, even when given several hours of runtime. We present an approach to continuing plan quality optimisation at larger time scales, and its implementation in a system called BDPO2. Key to this approach is a decomposition into subproblems of improving parts of the current best plan. The decomposition is based on block deordering, a form of plan deordering which identifies hierarchical plan structure. BDPO2 can be seen as an application of the large neighbourhood search (LNS) local search strategy to planning, where the neighbourhood of a plan is defined by replacing one or more subplans with improved subplans. On-line learning is also used to adapt the strategy for selecting subplans and subplanners over the course of plan optimisation. Even starting from the best plans found by other means, BDPO2 is able to continue improving plan quality, often producing better plans than other anytime planners when all are given enough runtime. The best results, however, are achieved by a combination of different techniques working together.

In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical techniques. Specific attention is paid to the Laplace approximation, variational Bayes, importance sampling, thermodynamic integration, and nested sampling and its recent variants. Analogies to statistical physics, from which many of these techniques originate, are discussed in order to provide readers with deeper insights that may lead to new techniques. The utility of Bayesian model testing in the domain sciences is demonstrated by presenting four specific practical examples considered within the context of signal processing in the areas of signal detection, sensor characterization, scientific model selection and molecular force characterization.

In some speaker recognition scenarios we find conversations recorded simultaneously over multiple channels. That is the case of the interviews in the NIST SRE dataset. To take advantage of that, we propose a modification of the PLDA model that considers two different inter-session variability terms. The first term is tied between all the recordings belonging to the same conversation whereas the second is not. Thus, the former mainly intends to capture the variability due to the phonetic content of the conversation while the latter tries to capture the channel variability. In this document, we derive the equations for this model. This model was applied in the paper "Handling Recordings Acquired Simultaneously over Multiple Channels with PLDA" published at Interspeech 2013.

In this document we are going to derive the equations needed to implement a Variational Bayes estimation of the parameters of the simplified probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (SPLDA) model. This can be used to adapt SPLDA from one database to another with few development data or to implement the fully Bayesian recipe. Our approach is similar to Bishop's VB PPCA.

State-of-the-art speaker recognition relays on models that need a large amount of training data. This models are successful in tasks like NIST SRE because there is sufficient data available. However, in real applications, we usually do not have so much data and, in many cases, the speaker labels are unknown. We present a method to adapt a PLDA model from a domain with a large amount of labeled data to another with unlabeled data. We describe a generative model that produces both sets of data where the unknown labels are modeled like latent variables. We used variational Bayes to estimate the hidden variables. Here, we derive the equations for this model. This model has been used in the papers: "UNSUPERVISED ADAPTATION OF PLDA BY USING VARIATIONAL BAYES METHODS" publised at ICASSP 2014, "Unsupervised Training of PLDA with Variational Bayes" published at Iberspeech 2014, and "VARIATIONAL BAYESIAN PLDA FOR SPEAKER DIARIZATION IN THE MGB CHALLENGE" published at ASRU 2015.