The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the calculations. However, we usually have only testimonies for the common events. While this difference does not have a significant effect on the inductive part of the inference, it has a large influence on how one should view the reliability of testimonies. In this work, a full Bayesian solution is given for the more realistic case, where one has a large number of testimonies for a common event and one testimony for an uncommon event. It is seen that, in order for there to be a large amount of testimonies for a common event, the testimonies will probably be quite reliable. For this reason, because the testimonies are quite reliable based on the testimonies for the common events, the probability for the uncommon event, given a testimony for it, is also higher. Hence, one should be more open-minded when considering the plausibility of uncommon events.

Human language is used to express logical and mathematical computations whose cognitive bases still remain unexplained. We ask ourselves if language acquisition involves a kind of implicit logical and mathematical programming that could explain such performances. Examples of these performances are some logical propositions, transferred by natural language, valid for different languages and for large populations of humans sharing similar cultural traditions. In the present work we choose -as a largely accepted logical statement-one of the most cited expressions that Arthur Conan Doyle attributed to Sherlock Holmes, the "old maxim" mentioned by the character in the story "The Adventure of the Beryl Coronet". For an allusion to this maxim in a scientific context see Cairns-Smith (1990).

A machine capable of performing complex tasks without requiring laborious programming would be tremendously useful in almost any human endeavor, from performing menial jobs for us to helping the advancement of basic and applied research. Given the current availability of powerful hardware and large amounts of machine-readable data, as well as the widespread interest in sophisticated machine learning methods, the times should be ripe for the development of intelligent machines. Still, since "solving AI" seems too complex a task to be pursued all at once, in the last decades the computational community has preferred to focus on solving relatively narrow empirical problems that are important for specific applications, but do not address the overarching goal of developing general-purpose intelligent machines. In this article, we propose an alternative approach: we first define the general characteristics we think intelligent machines should possess, and then we present a concrete roadmap to develop them in realistic, small steps, that are however incrementally structured in such a way that, jointly, they should lead us close to the ultimate goal of implementing a powerful AI. The article is organized as follows.

In this paper, we present a framework for fitting multivariate Hawkes processes for large-scale problems both in the number of events in the observed history $n$ and the number of event types $d$ (i.e. dimensions). The proposed Low-Rank Hawkes Process (LRHP) framework introduces a low-rank approximation of the kernel matrix that allows to perform the nonparametric learning of the $d^2$ triggering kernels using at most $O(ndr^2)$ operations, where $r$ is the rank of the approximation ($r \ll d,n$). This comes as a major improvement to the existing state-of-the-art inference algorithms that are in $O(nd^2)$. Furthermore, the low-rank approximation allows LRHP to learn representative patterns of interaction between event types, which may be valuable for the analysis of such complex processes in real world datasets. The efficiency and scalability of our approach is illustrated with numerical experiments on simulated as well as real datasets.

Aurelien Lucchi Department of Computer Science ETH Zurich, Switzerland Brian McWilliams Department of Computer Science ETH Zurich, Switzerland Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is a workhorse in machine learning, yet its slow convergence can be a computational bottleneck. Variance reduction techniques such as SAG, SVRG and SAGA have been proposed to overcome this weakness, achieving linear convergence. However, these methods are either based on computations of full gradients at pivot points, or on keeping per data point corrections in memory. Therefore speedups relative to SGD may need a minimal number of epochs in order to materialize. This paper investigates algorithms that can exploit neighborhood structure in the training data to share and reuse information about past stochastic gradients across data points, which offers advantages in the transient optimization phase. As a side-product we provide a unified convergence analysis for a family of variance reduction algorithms, which we call memorization algorithms. We provide experimental results supporting our theory.

A family of parsimonious Gaussian cluster-weighted models is presented. This family concerns a multivariate extension to cluster-weighted modelling that can account for correlations between multivariate responses. Parsimony is attained by constraining parts of an eigen-decomposition imposed on the component covariance matrices. A sufficient condition for identifiability is provided and an expectation-maximization algorithm is presented for parameter estimation. Model performance is investigated on both synthetic and classical real data sets and compared with some popular approaches. Finally, accounting for linear dependencies in the presence of a linear regression structure is shown to offer better performance, vis-\`{a}-vis clustering, over existing methodologies.

We introduce a novel Entropy-driven Monte Carlo (EdMC) strategy to efficiently sample solutions of random Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSPs). First, we extend a recent result that, using a large-deviation analysis, shows that the geometry of the space of solutions of the Binary Perceptron Learning Problem (a prototypical CSP), contains regions of very high-density of solutions. Despite being sub-dominant, these regions can be found by optimizing a local entropy measure. Building on these results, we construct a fast solver that relies exclusively on a local entropy estimate, and can be applied to general CSPs. We describe its performance not only for the Perceptron Learning Problem but also for the random $K$-Satisfiabilty Problem (another prototypical CSP with a radically different structure), and show numerically that a simple zero-temperature Metropolis search in the smooth local entropy landscape can reach sub-dominant clusters of optimal solutions in a small number of steps, while standard Simulated Annealing either requires extremely long cooling procedures or just fails. We also discuss how the EdMC can heuristically be made even more efficient for the cases we studied.

Large scale optimization problems are ubiquitous in machine learning and data analysis and there is a plethora of algorithms for solving such problems. Many of these algorithms employ sub-sampling, as a way to either speed up the computations and/or to implicitly implement a form of statistical regularization. In this paper, we consider second-order iterative optimization algorithms and we provide bounds on the convergence of the variants of Newton's method that incorporate uniform sub-sampling as a means to estimate the gradient and/or Hessian. Our bounds are non-asymptotic and quantitative. Our algorithms are global and are guaranteed to converge from any initial iterate. Using random matrix concentration inequalities, one can sub-sample the Hessian to preserve the curvature information. Our first algorithm incorporates Hessian sub-sampling while using the full gradient. We also give additional convergence results for when the sub-sampled Hessian is regularized by modifying its spectrum or ridge-type regularization. Next, in addition to Hessian sub-sampling, we also consider sub-sampling the gradient as a way to further reduce the computational complexity per iteration. We use approximate matrix multiplication results from randomized numerical linear algebra to obtain the proper sampling strategy. In all these algorithms, computing the update boils down to solving a large scale linear system, which can be computationally expensive. As a remedy, for all of our algorithms, we also give global convergence results for the case of inexact updates where such linear system is solved only approximately. This paper has a more advanced companion paper, [42], in which we demonstrate that, by doing a finer-grained analysis, we can get problem-independent bounds for local convergence of these algorithms and explore trade-offs to improve upon the basic results of the present paper.

For semi-supervised techniques to be applied safely in practice we at least want methods to outperform their supervised counterparts. We study this question for classification using the well-known quadratic surrogate loss function. Using a projection of the supervised estimate onto a set of constraints imposed by the unlabeled data, we find we can safely improve over the supervised solution in terms of this quadratic loss. Unlike other approaches to semi-supervised learning, the procedure does not rely on assumptions that are not intrinsic to the classifier at hand. It is theoretically demonstrated that, measured on the labeled and unlabeled training data, this semi-supervised procedure never gives a lower quadratic loss than the supervised alternative. To our knowledge this is the first approach that offers such strong, albeit conservative, guarantees for improvement over the supervised solution. The characteristics of our approach are explicated using benchmark datasets to further understand the similarities and differences between the quadratic loss criterion used in the theoretical results and the classification accuracy often considered in practice.

A mean function in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), or a kernel mean, is central to kernel methods in that it is used by many classical algorithms such as kernel principal component analysis, and it also forms the core inference step of modern kernel methods that rely on embedding probability distributions in RKHSs. Given a finite sample, an empirical average has been used commonly as a standard estimator of the true kernel mean. Despite a widespread use of this estimator, we show that it can be improved thanks to the well-known Stein phenomenon. We propose a new family of estimators called kernel mean shrinkage estimators (KMSEs), which benefit from both theoretical justifications and good empirical performance. The results demonstrate that the proposed estimators outperform the standard one, especially in a "large d, small n" paradigm.