We introduce the Forget-me-not Process, an efficient, non-parametric meta-algorithm for online probabilistic sequence prediction for piecewise stationary, repeating sources. Our method works by taking a Bayesian approach to partition a stream of data into postulated task-specific segments, while simultaneously building a model for each task. We provide regret guarantees with respect to piecewise stationary data sources under the logarithmic loss, and validate the method empirically across a range of sequence prediction and task identification problems.

In online convex optimization it is well known that certain subclasses of objective functions are much easier than arbitrary convex functions. We are interested in designing adaptive methods that can automatically get fast rates in as many such subclasses as possible, without any manual tuning. Previous adaptive methods are able to interpolate between strongly convex and general convex functions. We present a new method, MetaGrad, that adapts to a much broader class of functions, including exp-concave and strongly convex functions, but also various types of stochastic and non-stochastic functions without any curvature. For instance, MetaGrad can achieve logarithmic regret on the unregularized hinge loss, even though it has no curvature, if the data come from a favourable probability distribution. MetaGrad's main feature is that it simultaneously considers multiple learning rates. Unlike all previous methods with provable regret guarantees, however, its learning rates are not monotonically decreasing over time and are not tuned based on a theoretically derived bound on the regret. Instead, they are weighted directly proportional to their empirical performance on the data using a tilted exponential weights master algorithm.

Dynamic time warping (DTW) is a fundamental technique in time series analysis for comparing one curve to another using a flexible time-warping function. However, it was designed to compare a single pair of curves. In many applications, such as in metabolomics and image series analysis, alignment is simultaneously needed for multiple pairs. Because the underlying warping functions are often related, independent application of DTW to each pair is a sub-optimal solution. Yet, it is largely unknown how to efficiently conduct a joint alignment with all warping functions simultaneously considered, since any given warping function is constrained by the others and dynamic programming cannot be applied. In this paper, we show that the joint alignment problem can be transformed into a network flow problem and thus can be exactly and efficiently solved by the max flow algorithm, with a guarantee of global optimality. We name the proposed approach graphical time warping (GTW), emphasizing the graphical nature of the solution and that the dependency structure of the warping functions can be represented by a graph. Modifications of DTW, such as windowing and weighting, are readily derivable within GTW. We also discuss optimal tuning of parameters and hyperparameters in GTW. We illustrate the power of GTW using both synthetic data and a real case study of an astrocyte calcium movie.

In stochastic convex optimization the goal is to minimize a convex function $F(x) \doteq \E_{f\sim D}[f(x)]$ over a convex set $\K \subset \R^d$ where $D$ is some unknown distribution and each $f(\cdot)$ in the support of $D$ is convex over $\K$. The optimization is based on i.i.d.~samples $f^1,f^2,\ldots,f^n$ from $D$. A common approach to such problems is empirical risk minimization (ERM) that optimizes $F_S(x) \doteq \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i\leq n} f^i(x)$. Here we consider the question of how many samples are necessary for ERM to succeed and the closely related question of uniform convergence of $F_S$ to $F$ over $\K$. We demonstrate that in the standard $\ell_p/\ell_q$ setting of Lipschitz-bounded functions over a $\K$ of bounded radius, ERM requires sample size that scales linearly with the dimension $d$. This nearly matches standard upper bounds and improves on $\Omega(\log d)$ dependence proved for $\ell_2/\ell_2$ setting in (Shalev-Shwartz et al. 2009). In stark contrast, these problems can be solved using dimension-independent number of samples for $\ell_2/\ell_2$ setting and $\log d$ dependence for $\ell_1/\ell_\infty$ setting using other approaches. We also demonstrate that for a more general class of range-bounded (but not Lipschitz-bounded) stochastic convex programs an even stronger gap appears already in dimension 2.

We propose and study a new class of submodular functions called deep submodular functions (DSFs). We define DSFs and situate them within the broader context of classes of submodular functions in relationship both to various matroid ranks and sums of concave composed with modular functions (SCMs). Notably, we find that DSFs constitute a strictly broader class than SCMs, thus motivating their use, but that they do not comprise all submodular functions. Interestingly, some DSFs can be seen as special cases of certain deep neural networks (DNNs), hence the name. Finally, we provide a method to learn DSFs in a max-margin framework, and offer preliminary results applying this both to synthetic and real-world data instances.

Complex networks play an important role in a plethora of disciplines in natural sciences. Cleaning up noisy observed networks, poses an important challenge in network analysis Existing methods utilize labeled data to alleviate the noise effect in the network. However, labeled data is usually expensive to collect while unlabeled data can be gathered cheaply. In this paper, we propose an optimization framework to mine useful structures from noisy networks in an unsupervised manner. The key feature of our optimization framework is its ability to utilize local structures as well as global patterns in the network. We extend our method to incorporate multi-resolution networks in order to add further resistance to high-levels of noise. We also generalize our framework to utilize partial labels to enhance the performance. We specifically focus our method on multi-resolution Hi-C data by recovering clusters of genomic regions that co-localize in 3D space. Additionally, we use Capture-C-generated partial labels to further denoise the Hi-C network. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in denoising the network and improving community detection results.

Kernel-based quadrature rules are becoming important in machine learning and statistics, as they achieve super-$¥sqrt{n}$ convergence rates in numerical integration, and thus provide alternatives to Monte Carlo integration in challenging settings where integrands are expensive to evaluate or where integrands are high dimensional. These rules are based on the assumption that the integrand has a certain degree of smoothness, which is expressed as that the integrand belongs to a certain reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). However, this assumption can be violated in practice (e.g., when the integrand is a black box function), and no general theory has been established for the convergence of kernel quadratures in such misspecified settings. Our contribution is in proving that kernel quadratures can be consistent even when the integrand does not belong to the assumed RKHS, i.e., when the integrand is less smooth than assumed. Specifically, we derive convergence rates that depend on the (unknown) lesser smoothness of the integrand, where the degree of smoothness is expressed via powers of RKHSs or via Sobolev spaces.

In this work, we propose an infinite restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), whose maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) corresponds to a constrained convex optimization. We consider the Frank-Wolfe algorithm to solve the program, which provides a sparse solution that can be interpreted as inserting a hidden unit at each iteration, so that the optimization process takes the form of a sequence of finite models of increasing complexity. As a side benefit, this can be used to easily and efficiently identify an appropriate number of hidden units during the optimization. The resulting model can also be used as an initialization for typical state-of-the-art RBM training algorithms such as contrastive divergence, leading to models with consistently higher test likelihood than random initialization.

Matrix completion is a basic machine learning problem that has wide applications, especiallyin collaborative filtering and recommender systems. Simple non-convex optimization algorithms are popular and effective in practice. Despite recent progress in proving various non-convex algorithms converge from a good initial point, it remains unclear why random or arbitrary initialization suffices in practice. We prove that the commonly used non-convex objective function for positive semidefinite matrix completion has no spurious local minima - all local minima must also be global. Therefore, many popular optimization algorithms such as (stochastic) gradient descent can provably solve positive semidefinite matrix completion with arbitrary initialization in polynomial time. The result can be generalized to the setting when the observed entries contain noise. We believe that our main proof strategy can be useful for understanding geometric properties of other statistical problems involving partial or noisy observations.

A fundamental problem in cognitive neuroscience is how humans make decisions, act, and behave in relation to other humans. Here we adopt the hypothesis that when we are in an interactive social setting, our brains perform Bayesian inference of the intentions and cooperativeness of others using probabilistic representations. We employ the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) to model human decision making in a social context, focusing specifically on the volunteer's dilemma in a version of the classic Public Goods Game. We show that the POMDP model explains both the behavior of subjects as well as neural activity recorded using fMRI during the game. The decisions of subjects can be modeled across all trials using two interpretable parameters. Furthermore, the expected reward predicted by the model for each subject was correlated with the activation of brain areas related to reward expectation in social interactions. Our results suggest a probabilistic basis for human social decision making within the framework of expected reward maximization.