While both classical and neural network classifiers can achieve high accuracy, they fall short on offering uncertainty bounds on their predictions, making them unfit for safety-critical applications. Existing kernel-based classifiers that provide such bounds scale with $\mathcal O (n^{\sim3})$ in time, making them computationally intractable for large datasets. To address this, we propose a novel, computationally efficient classification algorithm based on the Nadaraya-Watson estimator, for whose estimates we derive frequentist uncertainty intervals. We evaluate our classifier on synthetically generated data and on electrocardiographic heartbeat signals from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database. We show that the method achieves competitive accuracy $>$\SI{96}{\percent} at $\mathcal O(n)$ and $\mathcal O(\log n)$ operations, while providing actionable uncertainty bounds. These bounds can, e.g., aid in flagging low-confidence predictions, making them suitable for real-time settings with resource constraints, such as diagnostic monitoring or implantable devices.

Training Data Attribution (TDA) seeks to trace model predictions back to influential training examples, enhancing interpretability and safety. We formulate TDA as a Bayesian information-theoretic problem: subsets are scored by the information loss they induce - the entropy increase at a query when removed. This criterion credits examples for resolving predictive uncertainty rather than label noise. To scale to modern networks, we approximate information loss using a Gaussian Process surrogate built from tangent features. We show this aligns with classical influence scores for single-example attribution while promoting diversity for subsets. For even larger-scale retrieval, we relax to an information-gain objective and add a variance correction for scalable attribution in vector databases. Experiments show competitive performance on counterfactual sensitivity, ground-truth retrieval and coreset selection, showing that our method scales to modern architectures while bridging principled measures with practice.

Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster $O(N)$ recurrence, but prior work evaluates this recurrence sequentially, without exploiting parallelization on modern GPUs. We show that the Hawkes process intensity can be expressed as a product of sparse transition matrices admitting a linear-time associative multiply, enabling computation via a parallel prefix scan. This yields a simple yet massively parallelizable algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of linear exponential Hawkes processes. Our method reduces the computational complexity to approximately $O(N/P)$ with $P$ parallel processors, and naturally yields a batching scheme to maintain constant memory usage, avoiding GPU memory constraints. Importantly, it computes the exact likelihood without any additional assumptions or approximations, preserving the simplicity and interpretability of the model. We demonstrate orders-of-magnitude speedups on simulated and real datasets, scaling to thousands of nodes and tens of millions of events, substantially beyond scales reported in prior work. We provide an open-source PyTorch library implementing our optimizations.

We revisit the finite-armed linear bandit model by Nelson et al. (2022), where contexts and rewards are governed by a finite hidden Markov chain. Nelson et al. (2022) approach this model by a reduction to linear contextual bandits; but to do so, they actually introduce a simplification in which rewards are linear functions of the posterior probabilities over the hidden states given the observed contexts, rather than functions of the hidden states themselves. Their analysis (but not their algorithm) also does not take into account the estimation of the HMM parameters, and only tackles expected, not high-probability, bounds, which suffer in addition from unnecessary complex dependencies on the model (like reward gaps). We instead study the more natural model incorporating direct dependencies in the hidden states (on top of dependencies on the observed contexts, as is natural for contextual bandits) and also obtain stronger, high-probability, regret bounds for a fully adaptive strategy that estimates HMM parameters online. These bounds do not depend on the reward functions and only depend on the model through the estimation of the HMM parameters.

We establish guarantees for the unique recovery of vector fields and transport maps from finite measure-valued data, yielding new insights into generative models, data-driven dynamical systems, and PDE inverse problems. In particular, we provide general conditions under which a diffeomorphism can be uniquely identified from its pushforward action on finitely many densities, i.e., when the data $\{(ρ_j,f_\#ρ_j)\}_{j=1}^m$ uniquely determines $f$. As a corollary, we introduce a new metric which compares diffeomorphisms by measuring the discrepancy between finitely many pushforward densities in the space of probability measures. We also prove analogous results in an infinitesimal setting, where derivatives of the densities along a smooth vector field are observed, i.e., when $\{(ρ_j,\text{div} (ρ_j v))\}_{j=1}^m$ uniquely determines $v$. Our analysis makes use of the Whitney and Takens embedding theorems, which provide estimates on the required number of densities $m$, depending only on the intrinsic dimension of the problem. We additionally interpret our results through the lens of Perron--Frobenius and Koopman operators and demonstrate how our techniques lead to new guarantees for the well-posedness of certain PDE inverse problems related to continuity, advection, Fokker--Planck, and advection-diffusion-reaction equations. Finally, we present illustrative numerical experiments demonstrating the unique identification of transport maps from finitely many pushforward densities, and of vector fields from finitely many weighted divergence observations.

High-dimensional variable selection, particularly in genomics, requires error-controlling procedures that scale to millions of predictors. The Terminating-Random Experiments (T-Rex) selector achieves false discovery rate (FDR) control by aggregating results of early terminated random experiments, each combining original predictors with i.i.d. synthetic null variables (dummies). At biobank scales, however, explicit dummy augmentation requires terabytes of memory. We demonstrate that this bottleneck is not fundamental. Formalizing the information flow of forward selection through a filtration, we show that compatible selectors interact with unselected dummies solely through projections onto an adaptively evolving low-dimensional subspace. For rotationally invariant dummy distributions, we derive an adaptive stick-breaking construction sampling these projections from their exact conditional distribution given the selection history, thereby eliminating dummy matrix materialization. We prove a pathwise universality theorem: under mild delocalization conditions, selection paths driven by generic standardized i.i.d. dummies converge to the same Gaussian limit. We instantiate the theory through Virtual Dummy LARS (VD-LARS), reducing memory and runtime by several orders of magnitude while preserving the exact selection law and FDR guarantees of the T-Rex selector. Experiments on realistic genome-wide association study data confirm that VD-T-Rex controls FDR and achieves power at scales where all competing methods either fail or time out.

Supervised machine learning assumes that labeled data provide accurate measurements of the concepts models are meant to learn. Yet in practice, human labeling introduces systematic variation arising from ambiguous items, divergent interpretations, and simple mistakes. Machine learning research commonly treats all disagreement as noise, which obscures these distinctions and limits our understanding of what models actually learn. This paper reframes annotation as a measurement process and introduces a statistical framework for decomposing labeling outcomes into interpretable sources of variation: instance difficulty, annotator bias, situational noise, and relational alignment. The framework extends classical measurement-error models to accommodate both shared and individualized notions of truth, reflecting traditional and human label variation interpretations of error, and provides a diagnostic for assessing which regime better characterizes a given task. Applying the proposed model to a multi-annotator natural language inference dataset, we find empirical evidence for all four theorized components and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. We conclude with implications for data-centric machine learning and outline how this approach can guide the development of a more systematic science of labeling.

We initiate the study of language generation in the limit, a model recently introduced by Kleinberg and Mullainathan [KM24], under the constraint of differential privacy. We consider the continual release model, where a generator must eventually output a stream of valid strings while protecting the privacy of the entire input sequence. Our first main result is that for countable collections of languages, privacy comes at no qualitative cost: we provide an $\varepsilon$-differentially-private algorithm that generates in the limit from any countable collection. This stands in contrast to many learning settings where privacy renders learnability impossible. However, privacy does impose a quantitative cost: there are finite collections of size $k$ for which uniform private generation requires $Ω(k/\varepsilon)$ samples, whereas just one sample suffices non-privately. We then turn to the harder problem of language identification in the limit. Here, we show that privacy creates fundamental barriers. We prove that no $\varepsilon$-DP algorithm can identify a collection containing two languages with an infinite intersection and a finite set difference, a condition far stronger than the classical non-private characterization of identification. Next, we turn to the stochastic setting where the sample strings are sampled i.i.d. from a distribution (instead of being generated by an adversary). Here, we show that private identification is possible if and only if the collection is identifiable in the adversarial model. Together, our results establish new dimensions along which generation and identification differ and, for identification, a separation between adversarial and stochastic settings induced by privacy constraints.

Machine learning competitions (MLCs) play a pivotal role in advancing artificial intelligence (AI) by fostering innovation, skill development, and practical problem-solving. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of major competition platforms such as Kaggle and Zindi, examining their workflows, evaluation methodologies, and reward structures. It further assesses competition quality, participant expertise, and global reach, with particular attention to demographic trends among top-performing competitors. By exploring the motivations of competition hosts, this paper underscores the significant role of MLCs in shaping AI development, promoting collaboration, and driving impactful technological progress. Furthermore, by combining literature synthesis with platform-level data analysis and practitioner insights a comprehensive understanding of the MLC ecosystem is provided. Moreover, the paper demonstrates that MLCs function at the intersection of academic research and industrial application, fostering the exchange of knowledge, data, and practical methodologies across domains. Their strong ties to open-source communities further promote collaboration, reproducibility, and continuous innovation within the broader ML ecosystem. By shaping research priorities, informing industry standards, and enabling large-scale crowdsourced problem-solving, these competitions play a key role in the ongoing evolution of AI. The study provides insights relevant to researchers, practitioners, and competition organizers, and includes an examination of the future trajectory and sustained influence of MLCs on AI development.

What are the limits of controlling language models via synthetic training data? We develop a reinforcement learning (RL) primitive, the Dataset Policy Gradient (DPG), which can precisely optimize synthetic data generators to produce a dataset of targeted examples. When used for supervised fine-tuning (SFT) of a target model, these examples cause the target model to do well on a differentiable metric of our choice. Our approach achieves this by taking exact data attribution via higher-order gradients and using those scores as policy gradient rewards. We prove that this procedure closely approximates the true, intractable gradient for the synthetic data generator. To illustrate the potential of DPG, we show that, using only SFT on generated examples, we can cause the target model's LM head weights to (1) embed a QR code, (2) embed the pattern $\texttt{67}$, and (3) have lower $\ell^2$ norm. We additionally show that we can cause the generator to (4) rephrase inputs in a new language and (5) produce a specific UUID, even though neither of these objectives is conveyed in the generator's input prompts. These findings suggest that DPG is a powerful and flexible technique for shaping model properties using only synthetic training examples.